Normally we
start our fantasy football player rankings with the quarterback position, but
due to the delay in reducing Tom Brady’s suspension (I say reduce because it
would be insane if he misses the same amount of games as Greg Hardy), we’re
going to begin with kicker, and why you should wait until the last round to
take one.
I’m going
to hit you over the head with some math, so bear with us. The following numbers
will be the difference between the point total of the kicker who led the league
in scoring versus the kicker who finished twelfth (No Credentials advises folks
to play in leagues with 12 teams or fewer, unless you’re a crazy person) over
the last five years.
2014 = 29
2013 = 31
2012 = 35
2011 = 44
2010 = 33
Average = 34.4
That looks
like a decent amount of points, but now lets divide those totals by sixteen to
give us the difference on a per-game basis.
2014 = 1.81
2013 = 1.94
2012 = 2.19
2011 = 2.75
2010 = 2.06
Average = 2.15
Certainly
two points can be the difference in a win or loss, but that difference isn’t
enough to justify using a mid-round pick on a kicker. It makes much more sense
to take fliers on runningbacks and wide receivers with picks in the later
rounds.
To hammer
this point home, we’re going to look at Stephen Gostkowski. Gostkowski has led
the league in scoring each of the past three seasons, so it’s reasonable that
he is the first kicker taken in fantasy drafts. That doesn’t mean you should
use an eighth round pick on him, or get into a bidding war for his services in
an auction. Let’s look at his point totals for every game the last three
seasons.
2014 = 8, 12, 10, 2, 19, 13, 9, 15, 13, 6, 10, 3, 11, 11, 5,
9
2013 = 11, 7, 11, 12, 6, 12, 9, 9, 13, 8, 10, 10, 7, 8, 11,
14
2012 = 10, 12, 12, 10, 7, 11, 9, 9, 13, 11, 7, 11, 6, 10,
11, 4
This was a really helpful read. I can also always recommend this guide for people that need hel understanding the system better.
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