30. Milwaukee Bucks
No Credentials Pre-Season Rank = 19Chance of Winning Lottery = 25%
Fantasy MVP = PG/SG Ramon Sessions (not a lot to choose from here, but Sessions was productive during the fantasy playoffs for head-to-head gamers)
Milwaukee’s reward for building one of the most comically inept NBA rosters of all-time is the guarantee that they will have a top-4 pick in the draft. Any of the top prospects would be a match (for what it’s worth, the ESPN Lottery Mock Draft has the Bucks taking Andrew Wiggins first if they win the lottery), which makes sense when you’re talking about a team that only won 15 games this year. The Greek Freak showed flashes of brilliance during his rookie campaign, and would be a great compliment to either Wiggins or Jabari Parker. John Henson also had his moments before the calendar hit 2014, but needs to improve his free throw shooting to even 60% in order to earn enough minutes to make an impact. Larry Sanders had a year he would like to forget, but at least he is starting a four-year, $49 million extension in 2014-15. This contract looks like a giant sinkhole for the Bucks, but a top draft pick could change the momentum of the franchise. Milwaukee also has two second rounders coming from the Lakers and Raptors, so there potential haul from the 2014 draft could be substantial if one of those second rounders hits. A first overall pick and a new ownership group could be all the Bucks need to begin the path back to relevance.
29. Philadelphia 76ers
No Credentials Pre-Season Rank = 29
Chance of Winning Lottery = 19.9%
Fantasy MVP = PG Michael Carter-Williams (bonus points if your league didn't count turnovers)
The most blatant of this year’s impressive crop of tankers, Philadelphia’s master plan should come to fruition barring a miracle ping-pong ball draw for the Pelicans. New Orleans shipped their first rounder to the 76ers last year in the Jrue Holliday trade, but the pick is top-5 protected. If New Orleans doesn’t draw one of the top three spots, Philadelphia will add the tenth pick in the draft along with wherever their own pick ends up. Michael Carter-Williams did demonstrate that he will be a competent NBA point-guard, and Nerlens Noel will be added to the roster after sitting out 2013-14 recovering from a torn ACL he suffered at Kentucky (he could’ve played after New Years, but Philly wisely left him in street clothes). Wiggins and Parker are the best fits for their first selection, and a power forward or shooting guard would make the most sense at 10. With the exception of Thaddeus Young, no one else on the 2013-14 roster should be counted on to be a major piece of next year’s club. It’s not unrealistic to think that the 76ers could be in the playoffs next year.
28. Orlando Magic
No Credentials Pre-Season Rank = 25Chance of Winning Lottery = 15.6% and 0.7% (own rights to Knicks pick)
Fantasy MVP = SG Arron Afflalo (might be a top-5 SG in the league, which sounds crazy)
Orlando has a similar set-up that Philadelphia has, they just didn’t suck quite as much. Furthermore, they own the Knicks pick no matter where it ends up in the draft, meaning there is a 0.010ish% chance they could end up with the top-2 picks. Victor Oladipo should’ve been rookie of the year, and made steps to establish himself as a NBA point guard. Even with that, Orlando is still reportedly very high on Australian import Dante Exum (Chad Ford has Orlando taking Exum second if Andrew Wiggins is off the board). That would give the Magic a terrific pair of combo guards to build around. Orlando is still owed two more first round picks in 2017, so the window to rebuild the roster in the post D12-era is still wide open.
27. Utah Jazz
No Credentials Pre-Season Rank = 27Chance of Winning Lottery = 10.4%
Fantasy MVP = C Enes Kanter (was terrible almost the whole year, but was a double-double machine for one of my championship winning teams in the playoffs)
Utah earns the distinction of being the only Western Conference club to blatantly tank, but they still couldn’t out-suck three teams from the East. The Jazz will be receiving Golden State’s first round pick this year, which if the Warriors play defense in the rest of their first round series like they did in Game 2 against the Clippers, will end up in the late-teens. Theoretically, Utah would have the ammunition to move up a couple spots in the draft if it felt the need to do so. Utah has a couple of talented big men in Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter, and Trey Burke’s play was promising, leaving the 2 and the 3 as Utah’s biggest needs. Gordon Hayward has probably played his final game in a Jazz uniform, making Jabari Parker a perfect fit. If the Jazz miss out on Parker or Wiggins, don’t be shocked if they either trade down in the draft or ship one of their big men out to make room for a guy like Julius Randle.
26. Boston Celtics
No Credentials Pre-Season Rank = 26Chance of Winning Lottery = 10.3%
Fantasy MVP = PF Jared Sullinger (I guess)
Brad Stevens first year as coach went to script. His team played hard and looked prepared every night, but ultimately lost due to a lack of talent. There isn’t any pick among the top eight ranked players that wouldn’t make sense for Boston. Point guard is the only position they have an actually building block, but drafting one would give the Celtics the security to trade Rajon Rondo. No team in the NBA has more extra picks over the next five drafts as the Celtics do, with their first extra one coming from Brooklyn this year. With the quality of talent at the top of the draft, don’t be shocked to see Danny Ainge put a package together and move up if the ping-pong balls don’t bounce Boston’s way in the lottery.
25. Los Angeles Lakers
No Credentials Pre-Season Rank = 22Chance of Winning Lottery = 6.3%
Fantasy MVP = PF/C Jordan Hill (another cheap big who went ham for one of my clubs in the playoffs. Thanks Pau Gasol for getting vertigo!)
I was tempted to type “100%” when listing the Lakers odds of winning the lottery, but rumors that the Lakers are willing to move their first round pick for an established star make it less likely the league would rig the draft for their benefit. It would make the most sense for L.A. to hang on to their pick and draft a big like Joel Embiid or Aaron Gordon, but logic doesn’t always take precedent in Lakerland (example: Kobe Bryant’s $48 million extension he signed after tearing his Achilles). Their 2015 pick is only top-5 protected (otherwise it ends up getting shipped to the Suns), so unless they plan posting the worst record in the league, sucking next year isn’t an option.
24. Sacramento Kings
No Credentials Pre-Season Rank = 24Chance of Winning Lottery = 4.3%
Fantasy MVP = PF/C DeMarcus Cousins (one of two dudes who were on both of my teams. Well done Boogie)
Turmoil is usually the name of the game in Sacramento, and this off-season will be no different. The only silver lining is at least the team isn’t moving for the foreseeable future. DeMarcus Cousins established himself as a truly elite big man, but it’s hard to forecast who will be around him when next season starts. Rudy Gay has a player option for 2014-15, and reportedly is still on the fence on whether or not he’s going to exercise it. Gay was surprisingly efficient upon arriving in Sacramento, so his loss would hurt. PG Isaiah Thomas is also slated to be a restricted free agent, with his chances of returning to the Kings next year probably 50%. If we could guarantee that they would end up with Marcus Smart in the draft we’d sign off on the Kings letting Thomas walk. Ben McLemore showed very few flashes during his rookie campaign, and needs to take a major step forward during his sophomore year push the Kings to the next level.
23. Detroit Pistons
No Credentials Pre-Season Rank = 14Chance of Winning Lottery = 2.8%
Fantasy MVP = C Andre Drummond (hope you were punting free throw percentage)
The first team on this list that we were incredibly wrong about (we still had Milwaukee in the lottery, so even though we were eleven spots off, we won’t count that as a major error), Detroit’s moves last summer all proved to be backwards. Things are so bad that Joe Dumars is out of a job. Josh Smith demonstrated on roughly 1,923,137 occasions that he can no longer play the 3, so moving Greg Monroe to open up minutes at power forward is priority one. Monroe is a very skilled big man who should garner a ton of interest from across the league. The biggest concern for the Pistons is the Draft Lottery itself, because if any team behind them jumps into the top-3, Detroit’s top-8 protected first round pick will be sent to Charlotte. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pistons package their first rounder with Monroe to try to move up in the draft.
22. Cleveland Cavaliers
No Credentials Pre-Season Rank = 16Chance of Winning Lottery = 1.7%
Fantasy MVP = PG Kyrie Irving (by default)
Cleveland made a big deal last year about not wanting to be in the lottery again, but unfortunately drafting Anthony Bennett first was not what the Cavs needed to make a playoff push this season. I still think the pieces are there for Cleveland to have a contending club (especially in the East), but no team had more chemistry issues. Dion Waiters needs to be sent out of town, and teams would be wise to kick the tires on just how cheap they could get him for (when he’s rolling, he can carry an offense). Someone out of the Bennett/Varejao/Thompson needs to be switched out with a rim protector. I’d be willing to bet a large sum of cash that Luol Deng will not return, but at least there is a smidge of hope that Lebron James could return to the team this summer. It would take a loss in the playoffs and him deciding playing with Kyrie Irving for the next four years makes more sense than playing another four with an aging Dwyane Wade, but at least it’s in play.
21. New Orleans Pelicans
No Credentials Pre-Season Rank = 18Chance of Winning Lottery = 1.1%
Fantasy MVP = PF Anthony Davis (he'll be a top-3 pick for the forseeable future)
No team had a season equal parts encouraging and discouraging as the New Orleans Pelicans. On one hand, Anthony Davis emerged as a true superstar who projects to be the best power forward in the association for the next decade. On the other, the rest of the roster was ravaged by injuries. The Pellies only have two years to build a contender around Davis before he can hit free agency, so 2014-15 will be a make or break year. During the brief time has healthy, New Orleans looked terrifying offensively when Ryan Anderson was on the court with Davis. He should be back for the start of the regular season. Jrue Holliday also went down, but was held out for tanking purposes the final couple of months of the season. The larger issue is what to do with both Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans. It didn’t take long for it to become blatantly obvious that these two can’t be on the court at the same time, as both performed at their best when the other was out due to injury. Unfortunately both contracts are virtually immovable. Barring a lottery miracle, New Orleans will not get any help from the first round of the draft. Unless they are chosen for one of the top-3 picks, their selection is going to Philly.
20. Denver Nuggets
No Credentials Pre-Season Rank = 21Chance of Winning Lottery = 0.8%
Fantasy MVP = C Timofey Mozgov (thanks for the 30 and 29 or whatever you put up against Golden State on the last Thursday of the regular season)
There’s nothing worse than the sad feeling of being in NBA no-man’s land, and that’s squarely where the Nuggets sit. Barring an extraordinary result in the lottery, they will likely pick after all of the top-tier players are gone, and other than Ty Lawson (who would best be served as being the third banana on a title contending team), there’s no one here you want to build a title contender around. Next season, there won’t be another team in the NBA who needs to bottom out more than the Nuggets.
19. New York Knicks
No Credentials Pre-Season Rank = 17Chance of Winning Lottery = 0% (their pick is going to Orlando)
Fantasy MVP = SF/PF Carmelo Anthony
Phase I of a nuclear off-season just was covered when Steve Kerr decided coaching the Splash Brothers made more sense than latching on to a bunch of aging ball hogs. Phase II could very well be Carmelo Anthony departing, which with news of a rising salary cap this summer, seems more likely by the day. Fortunately for New York most of their cap contracts on the books expire after next season (see ya later Stoudemire!) so they can look to retool through free agency again.
18. Minnesota Timberwolves
No Credentials Pre-Season Rank = 13
Chance of Winning Lottery = 0.6%
Fantasy MVP = PF Kevin Love (actually suited up for the fantasy playoffs, much to my fantasy gaming delight)
In the NFL you often hear the label “The Good Bad Team”, which relates to clubs that consistently clobber the worst teams in the league but always fail against the top echelon. Gorgui Dieng was a great late season find (especially for one of my fantasy teams), which makes Minnesota’s off-season all the more interesting. Nikola Pekovic was just signed to an extension a year ago, but Dieng makes more long term sense because of his shot blocking ability. How they handle there center situation ultimately could determine whether or not they can upgrade at small forward, and for the long term, keep Kevin Love in town.
17. Phoenix Suns
No Credentials Pre-Season Rank = 30Chance of Winning Lottery = 0.5%
Fantasy MVP = PG Goran Dragic (in regards to where he was chosen in drafts, the best bang for the buck among any player in the league)
Winner of the award for “Team No Credentials Was Most Wrong About Before The Season”, the Suns would probably be in the playoffs if Eric Bledsoe hadn’t missed extended time during the winter for a torn meniscus. Bledsoe and Dragic coexisted beautifully when on the court together, and Phoenix looks to be a big man short of serious title contention. Phoenix is in the rare position of having extra picks (two late first rounders will come from Washington and Indiana, and they will get a Lakers first round pick within the next three years) and cap room, so don’t rule out a surprise signing of Carmelo Anthony.
2013-14 All-Lottery Team
PG = Goran Dragic, SunsSG = Eric Bledsoe, Suns
SF = Carmelo Anthony, Knicks
PF = Anthony Davis, Pelicans (sorry Kevin Love, better chance of winning a title with The Brow)
C = DeMarcus Cousins, Kings
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