Last Minute NCAA Bracket Advice

            There’s only a few hours left to fill out a bracket, and if you need last second advice, here’s some tips from someone who usually does pretty good one out of every two years.

Assess the Quality of the Players

            We’re not talking on a team-by-team basis here, but we’re looking at the entire tourney field as a whole. In my opinion, the more top flight NBA talent that is playing in the tournament, the less likely it is that we see a rash of major upsets. Also, the likelihood of a small conference school like Wichita State running the table is unlikely with so many teams beginning to peak as their freshmen begin hitting their stride.

Looking for Upset Picks? Look at Your #11s and #12s

            I’m too lazy to look up actual facts, but I’m willing to bet that at least two teams seeded either #11 or #12 have advanced to the Round of 32 every year for the last decade, with at least one of those advancing to the Sweet 16. We aren’t predicting any team seeded #1 through #4 losing in the first round, but we have four teams from this seed group winning a game, with #12 S.F. Austin making a Cinderella run to the Elite 8 (this blog is called No Credentials for a reason folks).

Can’t Pick a Game? It’s Conference is Your Tie-Breaker

            When undecided about whom to pick, I’ll ask myself which conference is better. For example, we’re pushing #4 Michigan State past #1 Virginia because we feel the Big 10 is stronger than the ACC this year.

The Strength of a Region is Kind of Overrated

            In other words, if there is a team you feel really strongly about, you shouldn’t be scared off because there are five or six scary teams in it’s region. I look at each individual match-up one at a time for each team, not taking into account that a club might have to play three hard games in a row.

Usually, One of the Top Seeds Lose in the Round of 32

            It’s highly unlikely that the eight highest ranked teams make it to the Sweet 16. I almost always pick a #1 and a #2 to lose in the Round of 32, but this year we like all of the #2s to advance (thought about putting BYU over Wisconsin, but held off on it). This year’s top seed we predict to lose? Wichita State, who will fall to #9 Kansas State.

What’s the No Credentials Final 4 Prediction?

Final 4

#2 Kansas over #3 Iowa State
#1 Arizona over #3 Duke

Championship

#2 Kansas over #1 Arizona

            I can’t wait to win a $1,000,000,000.