30. Trevor Bayne, #21 Motorcraft Ford, Wood Brothers
It’s
hard to believe that Trevor Bayne won the Daytona 500 three years ago, and
still hasn’t managed to secure a full-time Cup ride.
29. Parker Kligerman, #30 Lending Tree Toyota, Swan
Racing
Kligerman
is the rare combination of talented rookie and upstart team. Swan Racing has
investors dumping money into it left and right, so it would be fun to see the
23-year old have some success this season.
28. David Ragan, #34 MHP Ford, Front Row Motorsports
If
this year’s “WIN OR GO HOME BITCH” playoff format were in place in 2013, Ragan
would’ve been racing for the title when The Chase started. That’s a reason why
this format won’t work.
27. Danica Patrick, #10 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet,
Stewart-Haas Racing
After
a listless first full season in Sprint Cup, it’s hard to forecast Patrick
having success anywhere other than Daytona or Talladega.
26. A.J. Allmendinger, #47 Kroger Toyota, JTG Daugherty
Racing
It
hasn’t taken nearly as long as most experts expected for Allmendinger to secure
a full-time Sprint Cup ride. The 47 doesn’t usually have a lot of speed, but
he’ll be pesky at Sonoma and Watkins Glen.
25. Paul Menard, #27 Menard’s Chevrolet, Richard
Childress Racing
Menard
shockingly has competition for the title of “most notable trust fund child in
Sprint Cup” from new teammate Austin Dillon.
24. Martin Truex Jr., #78 Furniture Row Chevrolet,
Furniture Row Racing
When
everyone watches Truex struggle in the #78, we’ll get a true appreciation for
how awesome Kurt Busch’s 2013 campaign really was.
23. Aric Almirola, #43 Smithfield Foods Ford, Richard
Petty Motorsports
I
can’t name one notable thing Almirola has ever done since getting the keys to
the #43.
22. Austin Dillon, #3 Dow Chemicals/Cheerios Chevrolet,
Richard Childress Racing
Dillon
has talent, but just like Ricky Stenhouse Jr. last year, he will have growing
pains. Remember that he didn’t even win a race last year in Nationwide despite
winning the championship.
21. Jamie McMurray, #1 Bass Pro Shops/McDonalds
Chevrolet, Ganassi Racing
There
isn’t anything my wife enjoys more during a NASCAR event than the sight of
Jamie McMurray bawling in victory lane.
20. Brian Vickers, #55 Aaron’s Toyota, Michael Waltrip
Racing
Sort
of like when an effective NBA reserve gets bumped up to starters minutes, we
think Vickers will suffer a drop in “per-race” production.
19. Marcos Ambrose, #9 Stanley Ford, Richard Petty
Motorsports
The
new playoff format gives Marcos Ambrose, who’s the most dominant road course
racer of the last decade, a 50% chance of making The Chase.
18. Kyle Larson, #42 Target Chevrolet, Ganassi Racing
Not
since Kyle Busch has Sprint Cup had a rookie with as much raw talent as Kyle
Larson. We wouldn’t be surprised at all if he stole a win at one of the short
tracks.
17. Ryan Newman, #31 Caterpillar Chevrolet, Richard
Childress Racing
We’re
happy Newman landed a full-time ride after getting the boot from Stewart-Haas
Racing, but the #31 group has been struggling for years now.
16. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., #17 Best Buy/Zest Ford,
Roush-Fenway Racing
Mr.
Patrick’s second half of 2013 gives plenty of reasons to be optimistic about
his sophomore campaign.
15. Joey Logano, #22 Shell-Pennzoil Ford, Penske Racing
His
early season feud with Denny Hamlin last year (which ended up with Logano
pulling a Bane and breaking Hamlin’s back in California) was one of the top
five events of the 2013 season. It would do Logano some good to cut the drama,
but we don’t think he’s at that point in his career yet.
14. Greg Biffle, #16 3M Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing
The
end of relevance for The Biff is coming.13. Tony Stewart, #14 Mobil 1 Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing
If anyone is going to come back from a busted leg and compete for wins it’s Tony Stewart, but we’re expecting some bumps in the road as he shakes the rust off.
12. Dale Earnhardt Jr., #88 National Guard Chevrolet,
Hendrick Motorsports
Evidently,
if the new points format were in place last year, Dale Earnhardt Jr. would’ve
won the 2013 title. Which is ironic, because he didn’t win a race.
11. Denny Hamlin, #11 Fed-Ex Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing
I
can honestly say I have no idea where to rank Hamlin. I had him at 15 before he
won the race formerly known as the Bud Shootout and his qualifying race.
10. Kasey Kahne, #5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet, Hendrick
Motorsports
Kahne
jumps to the top of my list for a guy that benefits from a championship format
mostly based on wins, as he’s never had the race to race consistency for point
racing.
9. Kurt Busch, #41 Haas Automation Chevrolet,
Stewart-Haas Racing
It
took two years in NASCAR purgatory, but Kurt Busch is finally back with an
elite team.
8. Kevin Harvick, #4 Budweiser Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas
Racing
The
number and team are different, but we don’t expect a dramatic change in
production from Harvick in his first year with Stewart-Haas.
7. Jeff Gordon, #24 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports
We
think Gordon has one more serious championship run in him. A win based
championship structure works in his favor.
6. Clint Bowyer, #15 5-Hour Energy Toyota, Michael
Waltrip Racing
The
face of MWR’s manipulation of the regular season finale last year at Richmond,
we actually expect Bowyer to contend for more wins now that his team has
consolidated to two cars.
5. Brad Keselowski, #2 Miller Lite Ford, Penske Racing
Sprint
Cup’s 2012 champ had a miserable, snake bit regular season during his title
defense, but a strong showing during the final ten races gives many reasons to
believe he can return to a championship caliber level.
4. Matt Kenseth, #20 Home Depot Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing
There’s
typically a “runner-up hangover” for the driver that finishes second in the
points the previous season, but the #20 car looks like it won’t skip a beat
after winning a Duel race Thursday night.
3. Kyle Busch, #18 M&Ms Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing
After
Kasey Kahne, here’s our second driver the new format favors the most. He’s
plenty capable of qualifying for each round of the playoffs with a win.
2. Carl Edwards, #99 Fastenal Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing
No
driver is better at Homestead than Carl Edwards, which gives him a decided
advantage if he is in title contention going into the season finale.
1. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet, Hendrick
Motorsports
It would be a severe case of tomfoolery to rank any
other driver first as Johnson begins his quest for a record tying seventh
championship.
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