2014 AFC East Preview

            Our first division preview of the summer takes us to the AFC East, which should just be called “the thing the Patriots win every year as long as Tom Brady is under center”. For each team, we list last season’s record, this year’s schedule, key veterans for each squad (we borrowed the rankings and categories from Pro Football Focus, so don’t get pissed at me when you see that Tom Brady isn’t rated as a Blue Chipper), and the top rated rookies (we borrowed everyone Scouts Inc. rated as an 80 or higher).



4. New York Jets

2013 Record = 8-8, Second in AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Raiders, @ Packers, Bears, Lions, @ Chargers, Broncos, @ Patriots, Bills, @ Chiefs, Steelers, BYE, @ Bills, Dolphins, @ Vikings, @ Titans, Patriots, @ Dolphins

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = DE Muhammad Wilkerson, DT Sheldon Richardson, DT Damon Harrison
Solid Contributors = WR Eric Decker, WR Jeremy Kerley, LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson, C Nick Mangold, CB Dimitri Patterson
Impact Rookies = S Calvin Pryor (1-18, Louisville), TE Jace Amaro (2-49, Texas Tech)

Good News = There’s a 0% chance Mark Sanchez will take a snap under center.

Bad News = Did you watch Geno Smith last year?

Outlook = The 2013 New York Jets were one of the worst 8-8 teams in the history of THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, which is truly a testament to much maligned Head Coach Rex Ryan. They had the seventh worst point differential in the league, getting outscored by 97 points. Chris Johnson has the potential to reintroduce big plays into the Jets running game. Eric Decker is better suited as a #2 receiver, but he’s still better than anyone Gang Green trotted out last year. More so than any other team in the AFC East, the Jets need mammoth contributions from their offensive and defensive lines to cover up for their deficiencies under center and in the secondary. At least the secondary has the promise of Dee Milliner (he was awesome in December after looking terrible his first three months in the league) and rookie Calvin Pryor to provide long-term stability, but Geno Smith gave little indication he’s a viable franchise quarterback. It will take either a titanic progression from Geno, or yet another career resuscitation by Michael Vick, to carry the Jets into playoff contention. 

Prediction = We’re guessing the defense will keep them in games, and possibly even steal a couple at home, but New York’s abysmal quarterback situation drops their record closer to where it should’ve been last year. 5-11

3. Miami Dolphins

2013 Record = 8-8, Third in AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Patriots, @ Bills, Chiefs, Raiders (London), BYE, Packers, @ Bears, @ Jaguars, Chargers, @ Lions, Bills, @ Broncos, @ Jets, Ravens, @ Patriots, Vikings, Jets

Blue Chippers = DE Cameron Wake

High Quality Players = LT Brandon Albert, DT Randy Starks, CB Brent Grimes
Solid Contributors = QB Ryan Tannehill, HB Knowshon Moreno, WR Mike Wallace, WR Brian Hartline, WR Brandon Gibson, TE Charles Clay, DT Jared Odrick, SS Reshad Jones
Impact Rookies = T Ja’Wuan James (1-19, Tennessee), WR Jarvis Landry (2-61, LSU)

Good News = Mike Sherman isn’t around to call dumb plays.

Bad News = Junior bully Mike Pouncey will miss at least the first half of the season.

Outlook = Miami had one of the weirder seasons of any team last year, which makes sense considering they dealt with the first ever pro sports bullying scandal. After putting themselves in position to control their own destiny with a dramatic Week 15 victory over the Patriots, Miami only managed to put up seven points combined against Buffalo and the Jets to stumble to an 8-8 finish. The Dolphins canned General Manager Jeff Ireland (infamous for asking Dez Bryant if his mother was a prostitute during Bryant’s NFL Combine interview), but inexplicably left Head Coach Joe Philbin in charge. There are quality players up and down the roster, but the Dolphins have failed thus far to put it all together. Ryan Tannehill had a solid season in 2013, but needs to improve his deep ball accuracy to fully take advantage of Mike Wallace. Miami’s offensive line play was abysmal last season (Tannehill was sacked 58 times), and the Dolphins were wise to make that a priority. Brandon Albert comes from Kansas City to solidify left tackle, and first round pick Ja’Wuan James will handle the right side. James was probably a reach, but we’ve seen plenty of offensive line picks get panned at first glance (see Travis Frederick last year for Dallas). Knowshon Moreno provides some punch to the running game, but his greatest asset is the ability to pass protect. Defensively, Miami slipped in almost every meaningful category from their 2012 performance. Cameron Wake is one of the criminally underrated defensive players in the league.

Prediction = We don’t think Ryan Tannehill has another jump in progression, and their rushing attack will struggle to be average. Fittingly, so will the team. 7-9

2. Buffalo Bills

2013 Record = 6-10, Last in AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = @ Bears, Dolphins, Chargers, @ Texans, @ Lions, Patriots, Vikings, @ Jets, BYE, Chiefs, @ Dolphins, Jets, Browns, @ Broncos, Packers, @ Raiders, @ Patriots

Blue Chippers = DT Kyle Williams

High Quality Players = HB C.J. Spiller, DE Marcell Dareus
Solid Contributors = LT Cordy Glenn, HB Fred Jackson, DE Mario Williams, MLB Brandon Spikes
Impact Rookies = WR Sammy Watkins (1-4, Clemson), T Cyrus Kouandjio (2-44, Alabama)

Good News = They will return their entire pass-rushing unit that set a franchise record for sacks last season.

Bad News = Bon Jovi might buy the team.

Outlook = Are the Buffalo Bills the Sacramento Kings of the NFL, or are the Kings the Bills of the NBA? Both are going for bust to try to make playoff runs when the odds seem hopelessly stacked against them. Like the team we just discussed, the Bills are also leaning on a second year quarterback to make gains. E.J. Manuel showed promise last year, but injuries forced him to miss six games. Some of those durability issues can be attributed to a shoddy offensive line, but Buffalo was aggressive in free agency and the draft in patching that unit up. The Bills traded next year’s first round pick to move up five spots and draft Sammy Watkins. Watkins has game changing talent, and needs to develop immediate chemistry with Manuel in order for the Bills to make a playoff run. Defensively, Buffalo was great at rushing the quarterback, but often appeared indifferent to opposing runners. Without star middle linebacker Kiko Alonso (blew his knee out in mini-camp), they need their defensive lineman to be more aware of opposing ground games. Former Patriot Brandon Spikes will also provide a lift in this department.

Prediction = A mostly healthy Manuel helps Buffalo scratch and claw its way just over .500, which at least keeps the pick they are sending to Cleveland in the mid-teens. 9-7

1. New England Patriots

2013 Record = 12-4, AFC East Champions, Lost AFC Championship Game
2014 Schedule = @ Dolphins, @ Vikings, Raiders, @ Chiefs, Bengals, @ Bills, Jets, Bears, Broncos, BYE, @ Colts, Lions, @ Packers, @ Chargers, Dolphins, @ Jets, Bills

Blue Chippers = TE Rob Gronkowski, CB Darrelle Revis, FS Devin McCourty

High Quality Players = QB Tom Brady, LT Nate Solder, RT Sebastian Vollmer
Solid Contributors = WR Julian Edelman, WR Danny Amendola, LG Logan Mankins, DE Rob Ninkovich, DE Chandler Jones, DT Vince Wilfork, MLB Jerod Mayo, OLB Dont’a Hightower, OLB Jamie Collins
Impact Rookies = QB Jimmy Garoppolo (2-62, Eastern Illinois)

Good News = Rob Gronkowski has already been cleared for contact, and should be healthy (at least for a little while) Week 1.

Bad News = Despite Tom Brady posting his lowest quarterback rating in a decade, New England did nothing to improve the wide receiver core.

Outlook = It’s weird to think that in Tom Brady’s fifteenth year in the league New England boasts some of the best young talent in the league, but it’s true. The Patriots employ plenty of players entering their sophomore or junior NFL campaigns that if a leap is made, will catapult them into the top of the AFC. This depth was likely the reason they made riskier draft picks than you normally see from a Bill Belichick team. When Brandon Browner returns from a drug related suspension in Week 5, the Patriots could have the most dominant defensive unit that isn’t based out of the NFC West. Inking Darrelle Revis to fill the void left by Aqib Talib was a masterstroke, and we also like adding former Saint Will Smith to add depth at defensive end. Jamie Collins and Chandler Jones should both make a run at high quality status by the end of the season.

            Offensively New England chose to stand pat instead of bringing in top-flight talent. We’re still the most intrigued by second year player Aaron Dobson (we wrote that last year too, but he dropped that prediction along with nine other passes on a Thursday night against the Jets), who possesses the physical tools to be a number one receiver. Everything becomes easier for Tom Brady if Rob Gronkowski can just stay on the field, but with each additional physical ailment it’s hard to foresee him suiting up for more than ten games. If I were Belichick, I’d consider limiting his snaps to red zone possessions only for the first half of the year. We like the combination of Stevan Ridley (provided he stops fumbling the ball) and PPR monster Shane Vereen in the backfield. Brandon Bolden has also proven capable at times.

Prediction = Dobson takes a leap, Shane Vereen stays healthy, and Brady gets his quarterback rating over 100. Couple that with a top-5 defense, and we predict that the Patriots will be playing for the Lombardi Trophy in February. 13-3

Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the AFC North
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the AFC West

2014 Fantasy Football Tight End Ranks

            Our final fantasy football position preview is here with a look at tight ends.

 



Tier 1 = Don’t Call Me a Tight End

J.Graham, NO

            Tight end is deep in terms of dudes who are capable of delivering top-10 production, but Jimmy Graham is the only surefire stud. Sort of like owning Mike Piazza in a fantasy baseball league in the 1990s, Graham’s production is vastly superior to everyone else at his position. His yardage total was almost 300 more than any other tight end, and he led THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE in touchdown receptions. In fantasy, those numbers led to him generating 85 points more than any other tight end.

            With all that said, how high could Graham reasonably go in fantasy leagues? I wouldn’t take him over any runningback from my top two tiers, but as early as six he would be in the discussion. Graham is the highest rated non-runningback on my draft board, not Calvin Johnson.

Tier 2 = The Best Normal Guys

J.Thomas, DEN

V.Davis, SF

J.Cameron, CLE

            With Graham off the board, these are the next best things. Julius Thomas came out of nowhere to be a dynamic red zone target for Peyton Manning, and with Eric Decker leaving for New York, could see even more passes headed his way. Vernon was a boom or bust player in 2013, with 25% of his catches resulting in touchdowns. He stands to benefit with a healthy Michael Crabtree leading a revamped wide receiver core for the 49ers. Jordan Cameron has the highest ceiling in this group, but the loss of Josh Gordon makes him the key player defenses will key on. We’re not sure Cleveland’s quarterbacks are equipped to handle that.

Tier 3 = Best Per-Game Production…Emphasis On “Per-Game”

R.Gronkowski, NE

            I’m pretty lazy, so I’m going to copy and paste what I wrote about Gronkowski last year and then briefly comment on it.

If healthy, there isn’t a safer bet for 15 touchdown receptions in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE than Rob Gronkowski. The problem is his bones are made of Swiss cheese. If you nail your first four picks, and one of them isn’t Jimmy Graham, I fully endorse drafting Gronk. Even if he doesn’t make his debut until Week 6, he can still win your fantasy league for you. If he isn’t healthy for the fantasy playoffs, there’s always next year.

           Go figure, that all still applies. I’d probably bump the round I’m willing to gamble on him to the sixth though.

Tier 4 = Steady Producers

J.Witten, DAL

G.Olsen, CAR

J.Reed, WAS

M.Bennett, CHI

D.Pitta, BAL

            These guys won’t win many weeks for you, but they aren’t going to lose many either. Jordan Reed is the biggest reach in this group, but before getting hurt last year he was delivering Tier-2 production after getting inserted into the starting lineup.

Tier 5 = If You Draft Gronk, Draft One of These Guys Too

Z.Ertz, PHI

L.Green, SD

C.Clary, MIA

T.Eifert, CIN

H.Miller, PIT

C.Fleener, IND

E.Ebron, DET

K.Rudolph, MIN

A.Gates, SD

            This group contains the widest range of floors and ceilings at the tight end position. Ideally, I’d like to see a few of these guys go undrafted and then pick one up if they have a big first week.

Tier 6 = Bye Week Waiver Wire Subs

D.Walker, TEN

D.Allen, IND

J.Finley, GB

T.Wright, TB

M.Lewis, JAC

O.Daniels, BAL

            Even if you’re bonkers and play in a 16-team league, you wouldn’t want any of these guys starting. Maybe you’ll get lucky and they’ll score a touchdown when your starter has the week off.

Conclusion = Tight end is the simplest position in fantasy this year. If I find myself in the back half of the first round and I have the chance to draft Jimmy Graham, I’m pulling the trigger. Otherwise, I’m drafting the best available player in the sixth or seventh.

To read about quarterbacks, click here

To read about runningbacks, click here
To read about wide receivers, click here

Casually Informed World Cup Observations

My Favorite Officials on Earth are the Offsides Guys
            Most sports use lines to determine when a player is offside or out of bounds, but soccer opts to use little European dudes running up and down the sideline with flags. It’s fantastic.

Lionel Messi is Better at Futbol Than Anyone Else is at Anything Else

            Argentina isn’t as deep as Brazil or Germany, and their defense isn’t highly regarded either. However, Lionel Messi is the greatest equalizer in the game. His mere presence on the pitch seemed to force Belgium into a hyper-defensive game plan (remember that this is the same Belgium team that peppered Tim Howard with shots last Sunday. They only managed one shot today, which either had to do with incredible defense by Argentina or FIFA rigging the match), which is reminiscent of how NFL defenses used to play against Randy Moss. Assuming Argentina gets past the Netherlands (which isn’t a sure thing), defeating Brazil or Germany in the final would further cement Messi’s near mythical status.

Goalies Have Been Ridiculous

            Whether it was Tim Howard or Guillermo Ochoa, we’ve almost seen NHL-like performances where a hot goaltender is almost enough to deliver a victory. Howard became an instant Twitter folk-hero with his record setting, 15-save performance against Belgium. Even though goal scoring is up, the play of goalies will be on of the things I remember about the 2014 World Cup. 

Soccer Players are Lucky FIFA Isn’t Run By the NBA

            With the amount of flopping that goes on in every game, the NBA would be doling out $2 million in fines per match.

I Love the Time of Day These Games are Played

            Seriously, what’s better than turning a World Cup game on when normally your best TV option is “The Price is Right” or “Ellen”? The USMNT game against Belgium did better in the ratings than the NBA Finals did, and that game started at 4 p.m. on a Tuesday. MLB should take some notes and consider moving their start times up.

The Start Times are Going to Suck For Americans in Four Years

            The 2018 World Cup is going to be in Russia, which means most of the games will begin between 5 and 7 in the morning for East Coast Americans. Americans have shown they can get into soccer, but the 2018 Cup will be a serious test of our dedication to the game.

USMNT is the Worst Acronym Ever

            Acronyms should be less than three letters (NFL, L.A., USA), with the only larger ones being acronyms that can be spoken like a word (NASCAR, NASA). USMNT doesn’t fit either of those two conditions.

 



Neymar’s Injury is a Bummer

            At least Brazil will have a good excuse when they lose to Germany.