Sports Gone Bonkers and Week 14 NFL Picks

            No Credentials has degenerated into a hack-gambling blog (which depending on your point of view, is a step up or down from a hack-sports analyst blog), so we’re getting back to our roots a little bit with this week’s NFL picks. I’ve mixed in some commentary on all of the crazy transactions (both completed and attempted), a low brow joke about Colt McCoy, and I discuss a successful NHL parlay bet that you won’t care about. Enjoy!

On Pujols to the Angels… This was the “wow” story of the day Thursday until the botched Chris Paul trade blew it off the headlines (what does that say for the state of baseball when the movement of it’s best player to another team is overshadowed by a screwed up NBA trade?). A ten-year deal sounds crazy for a 31-year-old first basemen (who may really be 35, if conspiracy theorists are to be believed), but it’s more sensible when you consider Pujols will be in the American League. Use of the DH spot should allow the Angels to get six or seven good Pujols seasons as opposed to just four or five. Throw in the signing of C.J. Wilson away from the rival Rangers, and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim/California/Orange County/San Andreas Fault are the prohibitive favorites in the AL West, and maybe even the entire American League.

RAVENS (-16.5) over Colts

            I don’t trust Flacco enough to cover this many points to stick this game in my top-5, but have already plugged this game into a 10-point teaser.

Baltimore 34, Indianapolis 10

Confidence Score = 11

Texans (+3) over BENGALS

            The Bengals bubble has burst.

Houston 24, Cincinnati 10

Confidence Score = 9

On Colt McCoy continuing to play last Thursday after suffering a concussion… I can understand how Cleveland missed that their quarterback had his bell rung against Pittsburgh. McCoy plays every week like he’s suffering the effects of a concussion.

JETS (-10.5) over Chiefs

            Mark Sanchez will pull something out of his ass to allow the Jets to cover.

New York 17, Kansas City 6

Confidence Score = 7

On Dwight Howard flirting with the Nets… This story only makes sense if two scenarios are in play. The first one is that Howard (and more likely, his agent) were pissed that the Lakers tried to get Chris Paul first, and wanted to float it out among the masses that Howard’s “preferred” the New Jersey/Brooklyn/New York Lite Nets over any other team. Sure he gets to run the pick and roll with Deron Williams (which by the way, would be devastating), but does he really want to play on the second fiddle New York team over the Lakers? I don’t think so.

            Scenario two is that the mutant multi-billionaire owner of the Nets offered Howard 30 virgins who look exactly like Anna Kournikova. I’m leaning towards scenario two.

Vikings (+10) over LIONS

            Peterson’s return against the still Suh-less Lions should keep the score close.

Detroit 24, Minnesota 21

Confidence Score = 4

TITANS (+3.5) over Saints

            I don’t feel great about this pick, but this game is much more important to Tennessee than it is to the Saints.

Tennessee 27, New Orleans 21

Confidence Score = 3

DOLPHINS (-3) over Eagles

            Miami has been a point spread covering juggernaut for almost two full months. Expect that to continue against the hapless Eagles.

Miami 27, Philadelphia 20
Confidence Score = 10

On the two hockey parlays I wrote about the other night… We’ll skip the parlay I did with Phoenix and the Rangers, because you read enough depressing stuff everyday and don’t need to hear about how both teams lost, or how Phoenix was down 5-1 at one point against Detroit. Lets skip the negative, and hit the positive. The Panthers-Bruins game went exactly as I thought it would (which is weird, because things work out the way I think I should roughly 6.8932949% of the time). Lost in all the talk in Beantown about Tyler Seguin’s desperate need for a functioning alarm clock was the fact that the Florida Panthers are a damn good hockey team. From what I can figure out, anytime you can get a good team at anything better than +150, you take it.

            As for the second leg of the parlay, New Jersey appeared to have the win in the bag against Ottawa until giving up a shorthanded goal with four seconds left in the third period. Thankfully 95% of hockey games are not on cable television, or else I surely would’ve clogged an artery over this game. Thankfully, New Jersey was able to pull it out in overtime. After that overtly exciting (and emotionally taxing win) I think I’ll take a few days off from betting hockey.

Patriots (-8) over REDSKINS

            New England doesn’t need to cover a three touchdown spread, so I like them this week.

New England 41, Washington 24

Confidence Score = 13

PANTHERS (+3) over Falcons
            It’s hard not to bet the over (only 47) on this game.

Carolina 38, Atlanta 35

Confidence Score = 6

Buccaneers (-2.5) over JAGUARS

            The only game on the schedule worse than the Monday night game this week.

Tampa Bay 27, Jacksonville 10

Confidence Score = 2

On the Chris Paul saga… Bill Simmons pretty much wrote all of my thoughts on this debacle here, but let me again list my primary gripes.

1. Where can a better offer from Chris Paul come from? The Clippers had already resisted trading Eric Gordon. Golden State already had said Stephen Curry was untouchable. Boston was offering a package built around Rajon Rondo, but do you really want to build your team around a point guard who can’t shoot (here’s a quick answer to that question Celtics fans…NOPE)? Rumor has it that the Knicks had worked out a similar three-team deal that the Lakers tried to make (which would’ve resulted in Amar’e Stoudemire ending up in Houston), but New Orleans wouldn’t of gotten a player of Lamar Odom’s caliber back. The point is, the Hornets had pursued all avenues. They knew that Chris Paul’s value would be at its highest before the season when no clubs had added any free agents yet. What they can get for him will only go down as the season progresses. That three-way deal looked like the best package New Orleans was going to get.
2. Just because a bunch of small-market owners wine means that a trade in a professional sports league gets nixed? Do NBA owners get the same option to veto trades as fantasy sports owners do? I wasn’t aware that was the case. Other owners had every right to gripe about the Lakers acquiring Paul (who wants to see a rival team getting a top-5 point guard), but to let that griping lead to a veto is insane.
3. David Stern just needs to go away. The man seems to have forgotten that the success of teams in urban markets is what has made his league what it is. Apparently according to Stern, the needs of owners of teams like Cleveland and Minnesota are more important than the needs of owners of the leagues most important franchises (Lakers, Celtics, Bulls). I’m not sure when Stern morphed into a hardcore socialist, but it is not healthy for the league.

49ers (-4) over CARDINALS

            People are little too excited about Arizona after their fluky win over the Cowboys.

San Francisco 20, Arizona 3

Confidence Score = 15

BRONCOS (-3.5) over Bears

            Caleb Hanie is not the man to defy God and His QB.

Denver 17, Chicago 7

Confidence Score = 14

PACKERS (-11.5) over Raiders

            Review Oakland’s performance against New England earlier this season to see the most likely outcome for this game.

Green Bay 35, Oakland 14

Confidence Score = 12

On Hanley Ramirez not wanting to play third base… This scenario reminds me of a classic male-female relationship battle. Let’s say the male (we’ll call him Ted) asks his girlfriend what she thinks if he goes to a friend’s house to play poker on a Friday night. The girl (we’ll call her Molly) says, “sure if that’s something you want to do.” (EDITORS NOTE: Hey guys, I know virtually nothing about women, but I do know that when they throw out the “if that’s what you want to do” line, that means they think whatever it is that you want to do is retarded). Ted says he’ll think about it for a day or two before deciding if he’ll go.

            Friday rolls around, and Ted tells Molly he’s going to play poker. Molly freaks out, saying things like, “Why don’t you want to spend time with me on Friday night? We usually watch a movie every Friday and eat popcorn and cuddle.” Ted says, “Just the other day you said it was cool if I played poker.” Molly then rolls her eyes and walks out of the room.
            To make a long story short, that’s essentially what happened with Hanley Ramirez. The Marlins reached out to Hanley two weeks ago and asked if he would mind switching to third. Hanley apparently said something to the extent of, “Well, if it would make the team better I’ll do it.” (EDITORS NOTE: For those still following along, “if it would make the team better” is the equivalent of “if that’s something you want to do”) He must not of thought the Marlins were serious, but quickly realized they were when the signed Jose Reyes for $106 million. Ramirez has already spoken to the media and said he never okayed a switch to third, and was never on board with it.
            How will this all play out? I see Ramirez getting traded. Ozzie Guillen is not a guy that will put up with shit like this, and I’m guessing the new owners of the team aren’t very happy about it either. There are certainly enough teams looking for a shortstop, so expect Miami to get a king’s ransom for him.

CHARGERS (-7) over Bills

            I’ll buy a San Diego resurgence for at least one more week.

San Diego 34, Buffalo 17

Confidence Score = 16

Giants (+3.5) over COWBOYS

            I have no idea what’s going to happen in this game, so we’ll play it safe and take the points.

Dallas 27, New York 24

Confidence Score = 1

SEAHAWKS (-10) over Rams

            Marshawn Lynch looks like the front-runner for the “surprise fantasy runningback that will swing championships” award.

Seattle 24, St. Louis 10

Confidence Score = 8

Thursday Pick = 1-0 (good job Browns only losing by 11)

Season Record = 95-89-8
S Top-5 = 33-30-2

State of the Lakers

            As someone who predicted Los Angeles to crush the Mavericks in five games, I couldn’t of been more surprised how the Lakers folded like a lawn chair against Dallas. Now that the dust has settled for a couple of days, let’s look at the key components of the Lakers and figure out where they go from here.

Derek Fisher, PG – Fisher’s basketball career needs to be put down like a dying dog. The offense the Lakers run doesn’t require much ball handling from the point guard, but they desperately need some speed and defense at the 1 (Lakers fans shouldn’t expect either of those traits to ever come from Steve Blake). Here’s a quick list of potential free agents that they might be able to sign for a low-risk contract.

Delonte West (BOS)

Jose Juan Barea (DAL, would make a ton of sense after Barea destroyed them during the sweep)

T.J. Ford (IND)

Anthony Carter (NY)

Ron Artest, SF – Los Angeles would’ve been much happier with acquiring Artest if they had done in it 2003 as opposed to 2009. He still has instincts on defense, but no longer has the speed to hang with athletic wings. Sadly for Lakers fans, he’s going to be owed another $22 million for the next three years. The best-case scenario would be forcing a club that wants Bynum or Gasol to take Artest along with him.

Lamar Odom, SF/PF – On one hand, Odom is a skilled big-man who can handle the ball and pound the boards. On the other, he’s starring in a reality show with a Kardashian. In spite of the television shenanigans, he should be a player they keep going forward. His versatility is much to valuable to give away in a panic trade.

Andrew Bynum, C – Supposedly, Bynum has the talent to develop into a franchise center. If I’m the Lakers, I’m calling Orlando everyday until a trade for Dwight Howard is in place (the worst kept secret in the NBA is that Howard wants to join the Lakers either via trade or as a free agent after next season).

Pau Gasol, PF/C – If internet rumor sites are to believed, a fellow Laker encouraging Pau’s girlfriend to break up with Pau is the reason for Gasol’s struggles in the playoffs. If that Laker was anyone that doesn’t have the last name of “Bryant”, I would be shipping that Laker out of town ASAP. Gasol is too gifted an offensive player to be discarded for 25 cents on the dollar.

Kobe Bryant, SG – Here’s two things I can definitively say after watching Bryant play for the past month.

1. Bryant no longer has the ability to consistently get to the rim.
2. He ain’t no Jordan (this should be obvious, but I’ll say it for die-hard Lakers fans. MJ never would’ve let his team quit like they did in Game 4 against the Mavericks. Or for that matter, Game 6 of the 2008 Finals against Boston).

             Bryant still has life in him. No one will benefit from the upcoming lockout more than him (after the NBA Finals, there probably will not be a NBA game until January). The biggest question for him will be if he accepts being the second best player on a team that also could feature Dwight Howard within a year or two.

Phil Jackson, Head Coach – Phil is going to be smoking tons of pot in Montana. Unless the Knicks offer him $50 million to coach for the 2012-13 season, we’ll never see the Zen Master on the bench again.

2010-11 NBA Fantasy All-Star Teams

            These are what the NBA All-Star teams should be based on fantasy rankings. Keep in mind that you won’t see Dwight Howard, Blake Griffin, or Rondo on this list due to their lousy free-throw % (missing free throws destroys your team if you are in a roto league. Fortunately for me, I am in a head-to-head league, and have both of those guys, so they have been monsters for me). In parentheses after each player’s name is their total season rank so far (as computed by Yahoo Sports). The ranks were pulled up Thursday evening.

Eastern Conference All-Stars

Starters

PG: Derrick Rose, Bulls (14)

            Rose’s breakout season in real life has also translated to the fantasy game.

SG: Paul Pierce, Celtics (8)

            Shooting 51% from the floor, 42% from 3-point range, and 85% from the free throw line. Throw in useful counting numbers, and Pierce is having the best all-around season (and most efficient season) of his underrated career.

SF: Lebron James, Heat (11)

            The King moved up three spots to 8^th in the rankings after his 51-8-11 line he dropped on Orlando last night.

PF: Amar’e Stoudemire, Knicks (6)

            Stoudemire has been a monster in New York. He scores, gets boards, blocks shots, and even hits free throws. Once the Knicks add Carmelo Anthony (which they will either before the trade deadline or during the off-season), they will be a power in the Eastern Conference.

C: Al Horford, Hawks (7)

            This is a guy no one gets excited about, but quietly produces in all stat categories.

Bench

G: Ray Allen, Celtics (18)

            Allen was picked at the end of the 6^th round in my league, and has produced late-2^nd round value. He thrives despite very low usage by the Celtics (only 12.5 shots per game) due to blistering percentages (51-46-86).

G: Raymond Felton, Knicks (24)

            Felton would’ve been in the All-Star game if not for being in a slump the past two months.

F: Josh Smith, Hawks (15)

            Smith has stepped up his game ever since he decided to stop chucking 3s at a 25% clip. Smith is the best shot-blocking small forward in the game.

F: Wilson Chandler, Knicks (29)

            This guy went in the 16^th round in my fantasy league (unfortunately, not on my team). He’s developing into the Knicks version of Shawn Marion (back when Marion was on the Suns, not the version that currently bricks jumpers for the Mavericks).

C: Elton Brand, 76ers (28)

            I couldn’t believe Brand was ranked this high. Having a nice bounce-back year after a couple of very injury plagued seasons in Philadelphia, but still is not justifying the ridiculous amount of money the 76ers are paying him.

UT: Kevin Garnett, Celtics (31)

            Garnett would’ve been much higher on this list if not for games missed due to injury. KG looked finished at times during the 2009-10 season. He deserves praise for returning to his old form (even if he’s completely crazy).

UT: Danny Granger, Pacers (32)

            Granger is the new Pau Gasol (pre-trade to Los Angeles) in the sense that he could never carry a team to a championship as the best player, but could absolutely put a team over the top if he were the second banana. He would be a fantastic swingman playing along side Chris Paul in New Orleans.

Western Conference All-Stars

Starters

PG: Chris Paul, Hornets (1)

            Chris Paul is amazing. He’s been wearing a giant knee pad all year, clearly doesn’t have the same explosiveness he used to have, but is still so efficient at running the offense in the half court that he is fantasy’s top player.

SG: Manu Ginobili, Spurs (5)

            Ginobili is whom I try to emulate when I am playing basketball. I have the awkwardness down, and even the herky-jerky dribbling style, but unfortunately I am not blessed with his ability to put the ball in the basket. It must be the bald spot on his head that gives him the magic power.

SF: Kevin Durant, Thunder (2)

            Similar to how Blake Griffin was put on this Earth to jump 12 feet into the air and dunk on people, Durant was constructed for the sole purpose of draining jumpers and getting to the free throw line. I wish that Oklahoma City would stick him in the post a little more, but in spite of that he is still one of the most entertaining players to watch in the NBA.

PF: Kevin Love, Timberwolves (3)

            Thank God that David Stern used Yao Ming’s All-Star spot to get Kevin Love into the game. Despite Minnesota’s poor record, a guy who averages a 20-15 (which hasn’t been done since Moses Malone) and hits 44% of his threes needs to be on the All-Star team.

C: Pau Gasol, Lakers (4)

            The White Swan is the most skilled big-man we have in the NBA. When this guy plays angry, there is no stopping him.

Bench

G: Deron Williams, Jazz (9)

            A damn solid point guard. I’m sorry, but that’s all I have to say about him.

G: Kevin Martin, Rockets (12)

            This guy went in the 7^th round in my fantasy league. Health is always a concern, but when he isn’t hurt this guy can flat-out score.

F: Rudy Gay, Grizzlies (10)

            This one of those guys that always does something. One night he might score 25 points. Another he’s grabbing 9 boards. Another he’s blocking 3 shots. He’s similar to Granger in that you’re probably not going to build a title contender around him, but he would be a great compliment to an elite player.

F: Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks (22)

            This guy would probably be in the top three if not for a prolonged absence due to injury. He hadn’t gotten much credit until everyone saw how awful the Mavericks were while he was injured.  

C: LaMarcus Aldridge, Trail Blazers (20)

            Aldridge is probably the winner of “biggest All-Star snub” now that David Stern has put Kevin Love into the game.

UT: Russell Westbrook, Thunder (13)

            I get tired watching Westbrook play, because it seems like he’s always barreling at full speed towards the basket. He’s the perfect compliment to Kevin Durant.

UT: Dorell Wright, Warriors (16)

            This guy was the one late-round gem I was able to unearth in my fantasy draft. I grabbed this guy in the 17^th round (if you’re into fantasy hoops, you may wonder why there even was a 17^th round. I run a league with each team having 20 players. A little big, but it kills the waiver wire). Similar to Gay, Wright is a guy who always gives you something.