2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Shortstop

            Shortstop is an absolute minefield. When Ian Desmond delivers the best combination of durability and reliable production you know there is a problem. It’s a position where you can either swing for the fences and spend a high pick (or a bunch of auction cash) on Tulowitzki or Hanley, or punt the position and start a guy like Ben Zobrist.

Tier-1 = Do You Feel Lucky?

T.Tulowitzki, COL

            The ultimate fantasy lottery ticket, how much you value Tulowitzki ultimately depends on how much you value risk and reward. ESPN ranks him at fourteen while Yahoo ranks him at 25, giving you an idea of how much volatility there is in how people think of him. It goes without saying that he’s an injury risk, but in just over 90 games of worked he still finished in the top-100 in overall fantasy value last season. If you could somehow get 145 games out of him in roto, or have him healthy in September for head-to-head leagues, he could single handedly deliver you a title from the weakest position in fantasy sports. For that reason, we wouldn’t scoff at anyone who picked him in the top half of the second round.

Tier-2 = Relatively Reliable

H.Ramirez, BOS

I.Desmond, WAS

            This will likely be the last season Hanley Ramirez ever has shortstop eligibility, and it will be interesting to see if his move to the outfield helps him stay on the field for more games. Ian Desmond has been the most reliable power-speed combo player at shortstop for the last few years, and while we don’t like his potential to submarine your batting average, homers and steals from the shortstop position are a big deal.

Tier-3 = Run More Damnit

J.Reyes, TOR

            Another perpetually injured top-tier shortstop, Reyes could lead the league in runs scored setting the table for a powerful Blue Jays offense if he could stay on the field for 150 games. His lack of elite stolen base totals is what keeps him from Tier-2.

Tier-4 = Reliably Mediocre

A.Ramirez, CHW

E.Andrus, TEX

S.Castro, CHC

            Here are your low-end shortstop options that you actually won’t feel bad about slotting in as your starting shortstop. Hypothetically Castro has the highest ceiling, but it wouldn’t be shocking at all to see the Cubs trade him with all the infield talent they have coming up from the minors.

Tier-5 = Holy Shit Half of These Guys Will Be Starting in a 14-Team League

J.Rollins, LAD

B.Zobrist, OAK

J.Peralta, STL

X.Bogaerts, BOS

J.Baez, CHC 2B

D.Santana, MIN OF

A.Escobar, KC

            Here are your low-end shortstop options that will make you vomit in your mouth a little bit if you pencil them in as your starting short stop. We already covered Baez in our second base roundup. Danny Santana posted a completely unsustainable BABIP in 2014. Future Hall of Famer Xander Bogaerts (just kidding!) has shown a little promise in Spring Training defensively, and has the highest potential of anyone other than Baez in this group.

Tier-6 = Bench Dudes

A.Cabrera, TB 2B

E.Aybar, LAA

J.Segura, MIL

J.Hardy, BAL

E.Cabrera, BAL

J.Lowrie, HOU

            You’ll want at least one of these guys on your bench. Everth Cabrera is a sleeper for the Orioles (he put up some numbers in 2013 before getting popped for steroids use), and we also like Asdrubal Cabrera as a potential (Devil) Rays’ reclamation project.

2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Second Base

            For the first time since we’ve been posting fantasy baseball draft content, I’m ready to declare second base as a relatively deep position. It’s not necessarily a great talent boom that put us in this place, but in the post-steroids era, the tenth best fantasy second basemen won’t be that far off in terms of value from the first. Position scarcity fanatics would often have their middle infields filled early in drafts, but even with that mindset it makes sense to wait on second base. 2B is arguably the least stressful fantasy spot to fill this season.

Tier-1 = The Name Brands 

R.Cano, SEA

A.Rendon, WAS

J.Altuve, HOU

            Cano begrudgingly maintains the top spot on this list, even though Altuve was the top ranked fantasy second baseman a year ago and Rendon is the best five category producer. Seattle’s off-season additions give logical reasons to believe Cano will put up better counting stats during his second year in a Mariners uniform. Altuve is a likely regression candidate, but even if his batting average drops 50 points there is higher run potential leading off for an improved Astros club. All three of these guys are great picks in the second round.

Tier-2 = Store Brands? 

D.Gordon, MIA

I.Kinsler, DET

            We almost put these players in their own tiers, but ultimately they are both undervalued commodities. The fantasy community appears to be taking Gordon’s speed for granted (ESPN has him ranked as the ninth best second baseman), but the bottom line is he can single-handedly carry you in stolen bases. Kinsler is no longer a 20-20 machine, but 30 combined homers and steals still have value.

Tier-3 = MOOKIE! and Some Other People

J.Kipnis, CLE

M.Betts, BOS OF

B.Dozier, MIN

K.Wong, STL

D.Pedroia, BOS

            This group carries the highest risk-reward factor of any of the tiers at second base for a variety of reasons. Jason Kipnis hasn’t been reliable since the first half of the 2013 season, but a return to health could mean he delivers top-20 value again. Mookie Betts isn’t eligible at second in most leagues, and isn’t likely to get any starts there this season, so plan accordingly if you’re in a keeper league. Brian Dozier is the most likely person in this group to hit below the Mendoza Line, and aside from going bonkers in last year’s postseason Wong hasn’t shown enough consistency. Dustin Pedroia is the biggest stay away for me in this tier. He doesn’t rack up steals or homers anymore, and is value is completely tied to whether or not he can maintain a spot in the top third of the Red Sox lineup. He’s essentially taken on the role Derek Jeter did in fantasy for the better part of the last decade.

Tier-4 = Not Horrendous Options

N.Walker, PIT

B.Zobrist, OAK

J.Harrison, PIT 3B-OF

D.Murphy, NYM

H.Kendrick, LAD

            Josh Harrison stands out as a guy you want to have on your bench with his multi-position flexibility. Howie Kendrick could be a better version of Dustin Pedroia if he gets to hit first or second for the Dodgers.

Tier-5 = Upside Baby! 

J.Baez, CHC SS

B.Lawrie, OAK

            You shouldn’t rely on either Baez or Lawrie to be your starting second baseman, but don’t like them be un-owned at the end of your draft or auction. Baez posted a historically inept 42% strikeout rate after getting the call to the big leagues, but there is no middle infielder with as much power as him. If he can bat .250 over a full season, he will eclipse 35 homers. Lawrie has been a bust for years, and looks like the kind of player that magically turns into an All-Star after Billy Beane signs him.

Tier-6 = Bench/Waiver Wire Guys

C.Utley, PHI

A.Cabrera, TB

J.Gyorko, SD

M.Prado, MIA 3B-OF

B.Phillips, CIN

A.Alcantara, CHC

A.Hill, ARI

            Gyorko has the most upside here (he’s a homeless man’s Baez in terms of power potential), while Prado’s versatility is as valuable in fantasy as it is in real life.

2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - First Basemen

            First Base is still the deepest infield position in the fantasy game like it has been since the beginning of time, which if you’re a positional scarcity fanatic means you likely wait for the elite options to come off the board and snag the ninth or tenth best option. These days though, you can’t afford to pass up on the power numbers generated by the top-tier. In your draft or auction, half of the first twelve picks (or half of the players that cost the most money in auctions) will be first basemen.

            Beyond the top tier, you’re looking at players that will be leading candidates to fill your utility spot. If you play in a league with two utility men, it’s imperative that you have one of those spots filled with a 1B.

Tier 1 = The Cream of the Crop

J.Abreu, CHW

P.Goldschmidt, ARI

A.Rizzo, CHC

J.Bautista, TOR OF

M.Cabrera, DET 3B

E.Encarnacion, TOR

            Health permitting, here are your safest bets for guys that will put up elite home run and RBI totals. If you find yourself in the bottom part of the first round in a draft, it would be a terrible idea to draft two of these guys back to back (that scenario is even rosier if Miguel Cabrera has third base eligibility in your league, but we’ll cover that later) to give yourself an edge in homers.

Tier 2 = Lower Ceilings, But Reliable

F.Freeman, ATL

A.Gonzalez, LAD

            Freeman’s value is impacted immensely by extreme lack of talent in the rest of the Atlanta Braves’ lineup. The risk of him getting virtually no pitches to hit is enough reason for me to stay away from him in fantasy leagues. Adrian Gonzalez is one of the better bets to lead the National League in RBIs, but his limited home run potential keeps him out of the top tier.

Tier-3 = High Ceilings, Low Floors

T.Frazier, CIN 3B

P.Fielder, TEX

B.Posey, SF C

D.Ortiz, BOS

A.Pujols, LAA

V.Martinez, DET

J.Lucroy, MIL C

C.Santana, CLE C-3B

J.Votto, CIN

(EDITORS NOTE: There’s no way you should be drafting Buster Posey or Jonathan Lucroy as your starting first basemen, but we note them because they do have 1B eligibility)

            Tier-3 can be divided into three groups. Catchers (read the note above), older guys who’s year-to-year value is extremely volatile (Fielder, Ortiz, Pujols, Martinez, Votto), and guys that we’d like to see match their 2014 performance again to ensure reliability (Frazier was a beast all of last year, while Santana was a rock once the calendar turned to summer). If one or two of these guys slip into the ninth or tenth round of your draft, or are available towards the end of your auction, there’s a lot of profit potential if you plug one of them into your utility spot.

Tier-4 = All or Nothing

C.Davis, BAL 3B

C.Carter, HOU OF

            Here are two of the only players in baseball whose most likely results are either a tape-measure home run or a strikeout. Davis is the preferred option here because he is only two years removed from a MVP-caliber campaign, but don’t sleep on Carter. Sure he’s going to demolish you in batting average, but he hit more homers than any other first base eligible player last year while only hitting .223. If he can hit over .250 like he did after the All-Star break in 2014, we could be talking about 45+ dingers.

Tier-5 = Valuable Bench Players 

M.Adams, STL

E.Hosmer, KC

R.Zimmerman, WAS 3B-OF

B.Moss, CLE OF

S.Pearce, BAL OF

L.Duda, NYM

M.Trumbo, ARI OF

A.LaRoche, CHW

C.Headley, NYY 3B

M.Napoli, BOS

M.Morse, MIA OF

            Ideally you’d like as much positional flexibility as possible out of your bench, and you should have at least one 1B-OF or 1B-3B eligible player on your team. Of this group, we like Ryan Zimmerman (35% chance he doesn’t get hurt now that he’s stationed at first, and he’ll offer three position eligibility by May 1) and Chase Headley (just a hunch) the most.

2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catchers

            What better way to start our position reviews than a look at the least valuable position in fantasy baseball? We might as well start small and build up to something important. Or in other words, get catcher out of the way.

            Catchers are worthless for a multitude of reasons, but they all stem from the fact they get more days off than any other offensive player due to the wear and tear of the position. This leads to lower counting stats across the board. If you take the top total by a catcher in each of the standard fantasy scoring categories in 2014, here’s what you’d come up with…

BA = .311 (Buster Posey)

HR = 27 (Carlos Santana, and in leagues with stricter position eligibility rules he isn’t even a catcher this year)

RBI – 89 (Posey)

R = 73 (Jonathan Lucroy)

SB = 5 (Santana)

            We’ll touch on why this is important when we discuss our first tier, which happens to be a one-player tier.

Tier I – Buster Posey

B.Posey, SF 1B

            Posey has been the most reliable fantasy catcher for three years running, and was the only catcher to be ranked in the top 100 in overall value a year go, but I’m not taking him in any re-draft league at his current average cost of 28.4 (we’re referencing Yahoo for our average draft stats). With the weak offensive talent around him in San Francisco, his ceiling is too low to justify taking him ahead of a stud outfielder or potential staff ace in the third round. For auction players, his average going rate of $23 is much more reasonable.

Tier II – Best Catchers Not Named Buster Posey

J.Lucroy, MIL 1B

C.Santana, CLE 1B-3B

D.Mesoraco, CIN

Y.Gomes, CLE

            Carlos Santana’s inclusion in this group may not apply to your league, as his catcher eligibility hinges on what your league’s position eligibility requirements are. Keep that fact in mind if you’re drafting or bidding in a keeper league, as it’s unlikely he makes any starts at catcher in 2015.

            Of these four, Lucroy has the lowest floor, Santana has the greatest all-around upside (although increased production after moving away from catcher has proven to be a myth in the past), Mesoraco has the most power, and Gomes is the cheapest. Gomes is picked on average in the middle of the eleventh round, so he would be the only guy in this tier I’d consider targeting. The rest of the group will be picked in the seventies and eighties, which is an area I’d rather spend on my outfield or pitching.

Tier III – Best Values

E.Gattis, HOU

S.Perez, KC

B.McCann, NYY 1B

Y.Molina, STL

M.Wieters, BAL

W.Rosario, COL

R.Martin, TOR

            If one of these guys is your starting catcher, that should mean your first 10 or 11 picks were spent on players who would’ve delivered more value than taking a catcher earlier (that’s a weird sentence, but it makes sense in my head). Of this group, Brian McCann and Matt Wieters are my two favorites, as they possess the highest power ceilings.

Tier IV – Sleepers

Y.Grandal, LAD

W.Ramos, WAS

T.d'Arnaurd, NYM

            Ramos and d’Arnaurd are often injured, but are a worth a late round flyer for the chance they put together a healthy campaign. Grandal is very interesting now that he escapes spacious Petco Park. Dodger Stadium isn’t the easiest place to hit a home run, but anything is an improvement over playing 81 games in San Diego. Add in a loaded Dodgers lineup, and it would be no shock to see Grandal put up top-5 value at the catcher position.

Tier V – You Shouldn’t Waste a Draft Pick on These Guys

M.Montero, CHC

M.Zunino, SEA

J.Castro, HOU

D.Norris, SD

J.Jaso, TB

C.Ruiz, PHI

            Keep an eye on them just in case your catcher gets hurt, but there is really no point in employing a back-up catcher.

2015 Fantasy Baseball Drafting/Bidding Tips

            Last year for the first time we posted our fantasy baseball draft guidelines. Most of my though processes are the same going into this year, but there a couple of new theories we’d like to introduce.

Statistical Scarcity is More Important Than Positional Scarcity

            Loyal readers of this blog (all five of you) will recall that every year I write that you should value infielders more than outfielders and wait on pitching. That’s still true to an extent, but for the first time we are placing higher value on hitters with high counting stat ceilings, regardless of position.

            Back in days of rampant steroid use, power hitting was all over the place. In 1998, 33 players eclipsed 30 home runs. Last year, eleven players in all of MLB hit 30+ home runs. In years past, we’ve always ranked guys like Robinson Cano or Troy Tulowitzki high because of the lack of talent at their respective positions, but would you rather have the 14 homers and 82 RBIs Cano put up last year, or the 34 and 98 put up by Edwin Encarnacion despite missing 34 games? Even though first base is deeper, Encarnacion’s counting numbers are far more valuable overall. Having the best second basemen, shortstop, or catcher isn’t the same advantage it was 15 years ago due to the superior stats you could’ve had with a top-flight outfielder or first basemen.

You Need to Understand Your League Rules Before Drafting

            ESPN’s Matthew Berry writes this in all of his draft day manifesto pieces, but it’s so true. Your league’s rules have an immense impact on the value you should place on certain players and positions. Here are the important ones to consider.

-         Is your league rotisserie or head-to-head? If it’s head-to-head, you can spend higher draft picks on players likely to start the year in the minors or on the DL.

-         How many utility spots are in your lineup? If the answer is more than one, you should strongly consider drafting two highly ranked first basemen to accumulate extra power stats.

-         Dynasty league or redraft? Redraft league players should not overvalue prospects, as it’s unlikely they’ll return significant value.

-         What are the pitching requirements and/or limits? Roto leagues with inning caps make it simple to determine how many pitchers you need for the season.

-         Are there additional roster spots for injured players or minor leaguers? Knowing whether or not you can stash Jose Fernandez until June and replace him on the active roster with a healthy pitcher is sort of valuable.

-         How many teams are there? It sounds stupid, but I don’t know how many times I’ve been in drafts where fellow league members were freaking out because they weren’t happy with the players left on the board at third base. In general the more teams there are starting pitchers are less valuable, while relief pitchers are more important.

Runs Matter For Hitters, Which is Weird

            In an era where offense is as pathetic as it has been since the dead ball era, it makes sense that “runs” is an overlooked stat. Consider that in 1998, 39 players cracked 100 runs scored, and 42 had 100 RBIs. In 2014, seven players scored at least 100 runs (seven!), and 12 made it to 100 RBIs. Even though Mike Trout’s stolen base production was down last year, placing first in runs scored and second in RBIs helped him maintain his place as the most valuable offensive fantasy player. Production in these two categories matters more than ever with scoring so scarce.

            Over the next few weeks, we will be posting position-by-position breakdowns (we’re adopting the tier format we’ve used for football the last two years. It worked pretty well for my fantasy football squads, might as well try it with baseball), so be on the lookout for those throughout the month of March.