Deep NFL Thoughts For Week 12

            We took the week off last week (the Cowboys did have a bye week after all), but we’re back with a sentence or two about every NFL game this weekend.

Browns @ Falcons

            We here at No Credentials are overjoyed that avid pot smoker Josh Gordon is back on the field. Fans of the blog (all six of you) will remember us waxing poetic about him a year ago when he was carrying three of my fantasy teams to glory.

Fearless Gordon forecast against the shitty Falcons = 6 receptions, 126 yards, 2 touchdowns

Titans @ Eagles

            A valuable lesson was learned by the masses last week…don’t trust Mark Sanchez two straight weeks to lead your fantasy football team. The Titans are crappy enough that LeSean McCoy should limit the amount of impact the Sanchize has this week.

Lions @ Patriots

            Friend of the blog Ethan Hedrick will be at Gillette Stadium for this one. That has no relevance to anything, but I thought I would note it.

Packers @ Vikings

            Green Bay needs to thank their lucky stars that Packer destroyer Adrian Peterson had his suspension extended, although it’s hard to imagine that the Vikings would’ve been galvanized by A.P.’s return. In other words, we don’t know if Peterson’s absence will help or hurt the Vikings.

Jaguars @ Colts

            The over/under for this one is 50.5. Indianapolis might cover that by themselves.

Bengals @ Texans

            Houston kicked Andy Dalton’s ass two years in a row in the playoffs, and the Texans actually looked decent last week with Ryan Mallet under center.

Buccaneers @ Bears

            Under normal circumstances this game would only have an impact on the order at the top of the 2015 NFL Draft, but the NFC South is so terrible the Bucs still could run the table and make the playoffs.

Cardinals @ Seahawks

            At some point Seattle has to wake up and kick someone’s ass.

Rams @ Chargers

            Once upon a time San Diego actually looked like a legitimate threat to make a run to the Super Bowl. Now they can’t block, have no runningbacks, and their defense is garbage. Better luck next year.

Dolphins @ Broncos

            Losing two of your top three receiving threats within one quarter is never a good thing, so we’re pinning last week’s pitiful effort in St. Louis on that. We expect Denver to right the ship this week.

Washington @ 49ers

            Sadly, this one might have to be renamed “The Over-rated Mobile Quarterbacks Bowl”.

GIANTS (+4) over Cowboys

            With a huge game coming up on Thanksgiving against the Eagles, don’t be shocked to see the Cowboys looking a little unfocused for three quarters of this game. If they do win, it will be by no more than three points.

Jets vs. Bills

            One has to pity the poor Bills, who after ceding a home game to Toronto for several years, now have to play a home date in Detroit because of The Snowpocalypse.

Ravens @ Saints

             I’m cheering for the Saints only because I don’t want to see a 6-10 team win the NFC South.

The Perfect Fantasy Sports Week, an Intense Review

              One of the greatest moments in my fantasy sports playing career occurred this past week, with all nine of my active fake teams winning last week. This meant three loaded basketball squads, two solid hockey teams, and four hit-or-miss football clubs were able to navigate the cloudy fantasy landscape for glory. I honestly don’t know if I’ve ever pulled off this feat before, but since I haven't written anything in a while, this seems like a good enough excuse to crank out some useless analysis of teams that don’t actually exist.

Fantasy Basketball – Basketball ranks as the sport I’m the most dialed in too, and that has shown with my recent fantasy hoops performance.

The Demoralizers 8, Goodoleboy58 2 

Juan Pablo Montoya 10, Goodoleboy58 1

            We put these two wins together because of one man, the fantasy hoops destroyer of souls, Mr. Anthony Davis. To put The Brow’s start to the 2014-15 campaign in perspective, here are some fun facts.

-         At the time of this writing, Davis is ranked in the top 5 in scoring (fourth), rebounding (second), blocks (first, a full block per game better than second place), and steals (fourth, tops among big men).

-         Davis has only committed 13 personal fouls in nine games, which for a player with his level of defensive impact, is astonishing.

-         For you advanced stat nerds, he’s not even in the top 20 in “close touches” per game (which basically rates how many times he gets the ball in the paint).

-         The Brow is shooting 56% from the field, and he shot 66% last week.

-         Those last two factoids together means he should be getting the ball a lot more than he does.

-         He’s only 21 years old.

-         I’m the proud owner of him in an auction keeper league and normal redraft league.

Sure there were other guys that contributed to these two victories (honorable mentions go out to Damian Lillard and Klay Thompson), but Davis is the man.

Terminus 7, Gabriel’s Great Team 2

            This is a beat ‘em and deplete ‘em league, and the addition of Steph Curry after a win the week before paid immediate dividends. Curry is the second ranked player in fantasy hoops this year, and the scary thing is he really hasn’t shot the ball as well as he’s capable of.

Fantasy Hockey – Hockey is the sport I keep up with the least, but thanks to making simple decisions (like drafting dudes late who get to play with Crosby and Malkin) has generally led to me fielding competitive clubs.

HiFructose CornSyrup 6, Black Bears 3

            Sticking to names I know helped me draft Tomas Plekanec very late, which allowed him to be my MVP last week with 2 goals and 3 assists.

The Demoralizers 9, Push Puck Punk 1

            Sometimes, you have to get lucky with who you draw in a given week. Push Puck Punk was in first place, but the law of averages resulted in his team laying an egg this week.

Fantasy Football – I like order and logic, which makes playing fantasy football very difficult for me on weekly basis. Of the four teams listed below, only one is solidly near the top of the standings, with the other three fighting for their playoff lives.

Drive On 120.40, Gunning For Plaxico 105.04

            We built this team around Jimmy Graham, but thankfully Alshon Jeffrey was able to bail him out this week. Also big props go out to Ryan Tannehill, who didn’t crap his pants while Tony Romo was on a bye week.

The Demoralizers 113.42, Top Gun 97.14

            Mike Evans picked a great week to have his breakout game, as his 39.04 points were more than a third of my total scoring. If we can get Evans a real quarterback, he’ll be a beast for the foreseeable future.

Khan 156, Jim Fossil 138

            Kudos to Emmanuel Sanders for delivering 100 yards and a touchdown before getting knocked silly Sunday against the Rams.

Cool Ranch Doritos 117.55, Ron Burgandy 100.70

            If I were my opponent, I’d be pretty pissed that Cody Fleener put up 144 yards receiving.

            So there you have it. It took a lot of Anthony Davis, a dash of Patric Hornqvist (thanks for not snagging him fellow fantasy hockey players), and immense luck on the gridiron, but we’ll take a week like that anytime we can get it.

To Tank or Not to Tank? The Curious Case of the Oklahoma City Thunder

            Mark Cuban raised some interesting thoughts about whether or not Oklahoma City should shut down Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to land a lottery pick in next year’s draft, and those thoughts have inspired us to introduce a new series called, “To Tank or Not to Tank?”. Naturally, our first team is O.K.C.

The Team = Oklahoma City Thunder

Current Record = 3-6, tied for eleventh in the West

Situation = Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are both out until late November, leaving the Thunder with Serge Ibaka, Reggie Jackson, and a bunch of other dudes.

The Case to Tank = I can’t think of another championship contending NBA team that was so ravaged by injuries to start the season. O.K.C’s entire offense literally revolves around their two star players. There is no fancy motion offense, and few set plays. For the most part, Durant and Westbrook take turn jacking jumpers or driving to the basket.

            If they were in the East, it would be much more likely that they could stay within shouting distance of the eighth seed until their star players returned, but their place in the Western Conference makes that much more unlikely. Let’s say they have to go eight more games without Durant and Westbrook. If they were to go 2-6 in those games, that puts them at 5-12. 49 wins was what it took to make the playoffs in the West last year, and the Thunder would have to go 44-20 the rest of the way to match that. The talent is there to do it, but by the time they got to the playoffs, they might not have anything left in the tank for their first round series against the first or second seed.

            Tanking gives the opportunity for the Thunder to develop young players like Perry Jones (who was sensational before going down with an injury of his own), Reggie Jackson (a restricted free agent next season who the Thunder should keep), and Steven Adams. Add a lottery pick to this group, and the Thunder suddenly are a significantly deeper squad in 2015-16. A team this talented hasn’t been in the lottery since the Spurs drafted Tim Duncan in 1997, and that only happened because David Robinson was shut down for most of the season.

The Case to Not Tank = Can you say “Kevin Durant will be an unrestricted free agent after the 2016 season”? Enough has been written about the James Harden trade that we won’t rehash it here, but the seeds for Durant leaving may have been sown when The Beard was shipped to Houston. The Thunder’s notorious penny-pinching ways could be enough to convince Durant to flee to greener pastures. Throw in Russell Westbrook’s free agency a year after that, and you could be talking about a starless Thunder team that opens the 2017 season. The best way for the Thunder to convince Durant to stay is to win a title in one of the next two seasons. They are talented enough that they could make a deep playoff run regardless of which seed they end up with, and with some of the valuable experience earned by some of their younger players, they should be better equipped to give their star players rest during the playoffs. Last year the Thunder played Derek Fisher during the last ten minutes of their season, which is insane when you consider Fisher is now COACHING the Knicks. Replacing him with Perry Jones or Steven Adams would be a major talent upgrade.

No Credentials Final Verdict = We wouldn’t mail it in if we were running the Thunder. Plenty of contending clubs are stumbling out of the gate (as of this writing, the Spurs and Clippers would also be on the outside looking in if the playoffs started today), and as long as they get one of their star players back before Thanksgiving, there will be enough time for the Thunder to solidify their playoff position. A team that four years ago looked like it had a bright long term future is now less than two years away from facing Kevin Durant hitting the open market, so they need to maximize every opportunity to win a NBA championship. 

Week 10 Dallas Cowboys Pick

     We've been slammed at work this week, and don't have the time or energy to offer any extended thoughts on the NFL. However, we still have to do our civic duty and post an "official" pick for the Dallas Cowboys game.

Jaguars (+7.5) over Cowboys
     Let's just say that if Dallas is truly destined to finish 8-8 again after a 6-1 start, losing this game is a must.

Week 9 NFL Thoughts

            We’re still banning ourselves from picking all but one game this week, but we’re once again running some extended pre-game thoughts you can chew on before 1pm (Eastern) tomorrow.

This Might Be the Most Crowded “Least Valuable Fantasy Player” Field Ever

            For grins and giggles, let’s run through the candidates as chosen from anyone who on average, was chosen within the first 30 picks in Yahoo fantasy leagues.

1. LeSean McCoy (average pick 1.4) – He’s been healthy, but has only scored one touchdown during his first seven games of the year.
2. Adrian Peterson (3.5) – I don’t think we need to revisit his story again.
3. Eddie Lacy (5.6) – Lacy is on pace for 856 rushing yards, which isn’t what you’re looking for with the fifth pick.
4. Calvin Johnson (6.2) – This one is injury related, but Megatron should have ample opportunity to redeem himself if you were able to keep your team in playoff contention while he’s been absent.
5. A.J. Green (12.5) – Ditto.
6. Montee Ball (12.8) – If you drafted your team the old fashioned way, there’s a good chance Ball was your second round pick. He was mediocre before getting hurt, and now will be second on the depth chart after Ronnie Hillman has taken the Broncos offense to another level.
7. Zac Stacy (28.4) - Drafted near the end of the third round, Stacy can be found on numerous waiver wires across the country. After averaging less than four yards per carry in 2013, we should’ve seen this coming.
8. Doug Martin (30.4) – Widely considered a bounce back candidate this season, Martin has been an unmitigated disaster. Selfishly, he’s my choice for this award as I invested in him in not one, but two leagues this year.

         This debate would be much more fun if Peterson wasn’t involved, as he clearly dominates the category. Regardless, it hasn’t been a fun year of fantasy football.

Cardinals (+2.5) over COWBOYS

            We really should sit Romo for this game to ensure we have him healthy for the stretch run. Arizona runs some of the best blitz packages in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, and we’re asking for a season ending injury if toss Romo out there. I’d play Weeden, pound the rock with Murray, and hope Carson Palmer throws four interceptions.

Manning vs. Brady Never Gets Old

            The modern day equivalent of Bird vs. Magic, it’s important to treat every match-up between these two future Hall of Famers as their last. We like Denver to win Sunday not because of Manning, but because of the Broncos dynamic pass-rush duo. We saw how much trouble the Patriots had with the Chiefs earlier this season, and Denver can offer up a similar threat with Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware.

Ben Roethlisberger is the Most Underrated QB in Football

            Big Ben has two Super Bowl rings, won another AFC title, and just became the first person on planet Earth to throw for over 500 yards in two NFL games. He’s a damn good quarterback who doesn’t get nearly enough credit from anyone except Jim Nantz.

We Don’t Like any Double Digit Underdogs This Week

            If I had to choose one this week, I guess I’d give St. Louis a fighting chance in San Francisco.

I Have No Idea Who is Going to Make the Super Bowl

            Parody has been a big deal for a long time now in the NFL, but I can’t remember a season where there was one dominant team and about ten others with a punchers chance at making a Super Bowl run. The playoffs will truly be a complete crapshoot.