Super Bowl XLV Prop Bets Review

            You read all sorts of columns before games or seasons where people offer their predictions, but how many of them actually look back to see how they did? ESPN’s Matthew Berry is one that I can think of off the top of my head, but there aren’t many others that do. I am here today to expose all of my pre-game predictions on prop bets, and show the world how terribly wrong they were.  

Will Either Team Score in the First 6 ½ Minutes of the Game? WIN

            Green Bay put this bet in great peril when Tramon Williams botched a punt, but fortunately the Packers recovered. Winnings = $100

 Longest Touchdown of the Game Over/Under 44.5 Yards LOSS
            If Roethlisberger didn’t overthrow Mike Wallace by 5 yards in the 3^rd quarter, we would’ve had ourselves a 50-yard touchdown and a win on this bet. Winnings = -$115 (Currently down $15)

Total Sacks For Both Teams Over/Under 5 LOSS
            Somehow, Pittsburgh held Green Bay to only one sack. We came up one sack short on this one. Winnings = -$125 (Now down $135. Uh oh)

Largest Lead of the Game Over/Under 13.5 Points LOSS
            If Roethlisberger’s arm doesn’t get hit, and that ball didn’t flutter into the arms of Packers safety Nick Collins, we would’ve won this bet. You’ll notice a theme of me making excuses for each bet that I would’ve lost on. Winnings = -$100 (now down $235)

Total Number of Players to Have a Pass Attempt Over/Under 2.5 LOSS
            I felt pretty excited when Roethlisberger started limping after he slipped in the first quarter, and then they showed Byron Leftwich warming up on the bench. I deserved to lose this one. Winnings = -$100 (now we are down $335 and in need of some good news)

Roethlisberger Over/Under 11.5 Yards Rushing WIN
            Roethlisberger lumbered for 18 yards in the first quarter, and then added 13 more for good measure. Winnings = $100 (still down $235)

Emmanuel Sanders Over/Under 38.5 Yards Receiving LOSS
            We were well on our way to a victory here after Sanders had 17 yards in the first quarter, but then he slammed his knee of the concrete, I mean, turf at Cowboys Stadium, and missed the rest of the game. Damn. Winnings = -$115 (now back down $350)

 Heath Miller Over/Under 38.5 Yards Receiving LOSS
            I got even more mad about this bet after the game when they showed multiple plays on Sportscenter where Miller was wide open, but Big Ben didn’t get him the ball. Miller only ended up with 12 yards. Winnings = -$125 (really hurting now, down $475)

Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 22.5 Pass Completions WIN
            Rodgers would’ve blown this number out of the water if it weren’t for a bunch of drops by his receivers. He ended up with 24 completions. Winnings = $100 (-$375)

Brandon Jackson Over/Under 13.5 Yards Receiving WIN
            All right, a winning streak. Jackson caught one pass for 14 yards, covering this bet by half a yard. In other words, he “Milton Berled” this prop (he pulled out just enough to win). Winnings = $100 (still hurting at -$275)

Donald Driver Longest Reception Over/Under 15.5 Yards WIN
            Driver was nice enough to bust a seam route for 24 yards before he snapped his ankle into six pieces. Winnings = $100 (down $175)

Mason Crosby Over/Under 1.5 Field Goals Made LOSS
            Remember when I said Green Bay would have a hard time scoring in the red zone? Needless to say, they didn’t. Winnings = -$100 (down $275, this is the last time I bet on a damn kicker)

Who Will Have More, Alex Ovechkin Shots on Goal or Steelers/Packers Combined Sacks? (Steelers/Packers favored by 0.5) WIN
            I didn’t follow much of the hockey game Sunday, so I was sure I lost this bet when there were only four sacks in the Super Bowl. Thankfully, Ovechkin only mustered three shots on goal. Anyone who bet this was very fortunate. Winnings = $100 (-$175 again)

Who Will Have More, Dwight Howard Points + Rebounds or Aaron Rodgers Pass Attempts? (Rodgers is favored by 1.5) LOSS
            Howard destroyed the Celtics in the first half on Sunday. I was real confident about this bet, but taking Rodgers just didn’t work out. Winnings = -$115 (Now down $290)

 What Will Be Greater, Jason Richardson’s Total Points or Margin of Victory in Super Bowl XLV? (Richardson favored by 4.5) LOSS
            Richardson needed to score 11 points to cover the 4.5 spread against the margin of victory (which ended up being 6). Naturally, he scored 10. I officially hate prop bets. Winnings = -$125 (now down $415 and thinking about which local convenience store to rob)

Who Will Have More, Steven Stamkos Total Points or Aaron Rodgers Touchdown Passes? (Rodgers is a 0.5 favorite) LOSS
            All the research I did to decide on choosing Rodgers went out the window when Steven Stamkos threw up a goal and three assists against St. Louis. Winnings = -$100 (now we’re down $515)

Will Christina Aguilera Hold The Final Note of the Star Spangled Banner Longer Than Six Seconds? WIN
            Perhaps she felt bad for butchering the middle of the song, because Aguilera held the final not for well over 10 seconds. Winnings = $100 (rallying back to only down $415)

Will Jerry Jones Be Shown on Television Over/Under Three Times? LOSS
            They showed plenty of footage of people sitting in his private luxury box (George W. Bush, John Madden, Michael Douglas, Catherine Zeta Jones, Jesse Jackson), but Jerry only made it on live TV once. Bummer. Winnings = -$100 (now down $515 again, things aren’t looking good)

TV Rating For Super Bowl Over/Under 46 Nielsen Rating WIN
            Super Bowl XLV was the most watched television program in the history of television. With the record viewer-ship of NFL games all season long, and the presence of two of the most popular franchises, this bet was a mortal lock. Winnings = $100

            So after all of those bets, I would’ve been down $415 if I had wagered real money. With as poorly as I knew my cross-sports bets were going, I’ll take it. Next year I think I’ll set it up so I have a fake budget of $100,000, because I know I would’ve banked half of that on whether Aguilera held the longest note for more than six seconds. I’m very content to not talk about prop bets for the next 358 days or so.

Super Bowl XLV Prop Bets

            Super Bowl proposition bets probably pay the rent for the majority of Las Vegas casinos for at least six months. Ever since William “Refrigerator” Perry barreled into the end zone against the Patriots in 1986, Americans have been obsessed with betting on every aspect of the Super Bowl. If you’re an extreme gambling degenerate, you can wager on ridiculous things such as whether the coin toss will wind up heads or tails, or who will receive the kickoff (believe it or not, some people wager six figures on this crap).

            I spent some time looking through every prop bet listed on Sportsbook.com, looking for potential diamonds in the rough. The following bets are ones I feel have a reasonable chance of winning. I don’t necessarily encourage anyone to wager real money based on my reasoning, but if you promise not to get mad at me, feel free to take the advice.  

Will Either Team Score in the First 6 ½ Minutes of the Game?

            Super Bowl’s typically start slow due to the nerves of the players, and neither team has a breakout return man. As long as there are no turnovers that set up either side with a cheap field goal, I would sign off on betting that the game will be scoreless in the first 6 ½ minutes (you need to bet $110 in order to win $100).

Longest Touchdown of the Game Over/Under 44.5 Yards

            Between Ben Roethlisberger’s uncanny ability to bounce off of 3 defensive lineman and then chuck the ball 50 yards down field, and Green bay’s fleet of wide receivers, I like the over here. Don’t discount the possibility of a long defensive touchdown by either team, which is solid insurance for this bet (need to lay $115 to win $100).

Total Sacks For Both Teams Over/Under 5

            Pittsburgh has had trouble pass blocking all season, and they just lost their best lineman in the AFC Championship Game. Green Bay has gotten better in pass protection as the season has gone on, but is still going up against a ferocious Steelers’ front seven. This number feels really low to me. Take the over (bet $125 to make $100).

Largest Lead of the Game Over/Under 13.5 Points

            Call me an optimist, but I see this game staying within 10 the whole way. You get even odds for this bet, which makes it an economical one.

Total Number of Players to Have a Pass Attempt Over/Under 2.5

            You can win $180 (for only a $100 investment) if you think either A) the Steelers will run some sort of gadget play with Antwaan Randle El or B) one of the two starters will at least miss a few plays. Let’s gamble!

Roethlisberger Over/Under 11.5 Yards Rushing

            Green Bay plays a lot of man-to-man coverage. I can see at least one play where the Packers defensive backs are running with the Steelers receivers, and Big Ben breaks away from the rush and lumbers for 15 yards. Plop down $125 to win a $100 for this one.

Emmanuel Sanders Over/Under 38.5 Yards Receiving

            This is the one prop that I don’t have any rational reasoning for, but I just am going with my instincts. I like Emmanuel Sanders to crack the over, possibly with one reception. Bet $115 for $100.

(EDITORS NOTE: Short of the poker table, my instincts are usually not to be trusted.)

Heath Miller Over/Under 38.5 Yards Receiving

            It’s been documented by several media outlets that Green Bay historically struggles covering tight ends. Throw in the fact that Miller had 7 receptions for 109 yards when these two teams met in 2009, and this bet looks too good to be true. You need to wager $125 to bank $100.

Aaron Rodgers Over/Under 22.5 Pass Completions

            Green Bay isn’t going to establish a consistent running game. Unless Pittsburgh can hold the ball for 40 minutes of the game, I like Rodgers to get at least 25. (Bet $120 to win $100)

Brandon Jackson Over/Under 13.5 Yards Receiving

            As noted in the previous prop, Green Bay will not run the ball in this game. Jackson is the Packer’s best receiving runningback. I like him to at least get 4 catches for 25 yards out of the backfield. You need to drop $115 to win $100. (Editors note: For $125 you can win $100 as long as Jackson catches two passes. The only reason I didn’t list it instead of yards was the $10 discount you get for betting yards. If you’re super confident in Jackson, bet them both)

Donald Driver Longest Reception Over/Under 15.5 Yards

            As long as he doesn’t get injured, Driver will catch one quick slant and bust it for 20 yards. Bet $115 for a shot at $100.

Mason Crosby Over/Under 1.5 Field Goals Made

            Green Bay will have a hard time scoring in the red zone. Expect a couple of 30-yard field goals from Crosby. Even odds on this one, so bet $100 to win $100.

Who Will Have More, Alex Ovechkin Shots on Goal or Steelers/Packers Combined Sacks? (Steelers/Packers favored by 0.5)

            This is our first cross-sport bet, where half of it involves a game from another sport being played on Super Bowl Sunday. Ovechkin and the Capitals play the Pittsburgh Penguins on Sunday afternoon. If you recall, I like the over on the combined sacks between the two teams, which means I’m banking on at least six sacks. In two games against Pittsburgh this season, Ovechkin is averaging 5.5 shots per game (see how diabolical Las Vegas is? Even a crazy multi-sport bet is set up to be a 50-50 chance). I’ll lay $130 on the two football team to make $100.

Who Will Have More, Dwight Howard Points + Rebounds or Aaron Rodgers Pass Attempts? (Rodgers is favored by 1.5)

            Orlando plays the Boston Celtics on Sunday. In the two previous match-ups, Howard posted a 6-11 and 33-13 (points-rebounds), averaging 19.5-12. Keep in mind that Boston was missing Garnett and Kendrick Perkins in both of those games. Assuming Howard is somewhere between his two game average against Boston and his season average in points and boards (22-14), and you’re looking at a number somewhere between 32 and 36. As mentioned earlier in this column, I expect Rodgers to throw the ball a ton. I’ll take my chances that Rodgers at least chucks the ball 40 times and covers the 1.5 spread. Bet $115 to make $100 and thank me later.

What Will Be Greater, Jason Richardson’s Total Points or Margin of Victory in Super Bowl XLV? (Richardson favored by 4.5)

            Richardson is only averaging 9.5 points a game in two games against the Celtics so far this season, but is averaging 17 for the season. If he hits somewhere in between those numbers, you’re looking at 13 or 14. Based on my previous assumption that the Super Bowl will be close, I’ll take Richardson to beat the margin by 5. Lay $125 for $100 on this one.

Who Will Have More, Steven Stamkos Total Points or Aaron Rodgers Touchdown Passes? (Rodgers is a 0.5 favorite)

            Stamkos is the stud center for the Tampa Bay Lightning who is currently leading the NHL in scoring (thanks to Sidney Crosby and his foggy noggin). Stamkos hasn’t played the St. Louis Blues yet this season, so we have no previous match-up data to look at. Stamkos has 67 points in 51 games so far this season, for an average of 1.31 points per game. Furthermore, Stamkos has recorded 2 points or more in 20 games so far this season (or 39.21% of the games this season). Just playing the percentages, I’ll gamble on Rodgers tossing at least two touchdowns, and make $140 of a $100 bet while I’m at it (Editors note: Sorry for all the numbers in this paragraph. Once I hit the Dwight Howard prop I entered super geek mode. I just spontaneously ordered five pocket protectors on E-Bay while typing this. I can’t help myself).

Will Christina Aguilera Hold The Final Note of the Star Spangled Banner Longer Than Six Seconds?

            Now for the fun bets. For $120, you can win $100 on how long Aguilera will belt out “BRAAAAAVVVVVVVEEEEEEEEEE!” I’ll take the over.

Will Jerry Jones Be Shown on Television Over/Under Three Times?

            The game is being held at “Jerry-World” in Dallas. Jones will find some way to get his botox-mug on live television multiple times. Bet $100, win $125, and don’t spend it all in one place.

TV Rating For Super Bowl Over/Under 46 Nielsen Rating

            For $120, you can wager whether or not tons of people will watch a game featuring two of the most popular NFL teams in the world. And win $100.

            So there you have it. I’ll review the results of these bets next week, in a column I’m already planning on calling, “You Know You Have a Gambling Problem If You Spent 3+ Hours Reviewing Super Bowl Prop Bets”.