- Being the most popular fantasy sport, it lends itself to being the most unpredictable type of draft to predict. People draft more often based on personal bias, team allegiance, or a multitude of other reasons that have very little to do with statistical probability. You shouldn’t be shocked to end up in a draft where one person drafts “all Broncos” because that’s their favorite team.
- Fantasy football is the most luck driven fantasy sport. With the season being so short (compared with other leagues), all it takes is one torn ACL for your first round pick (see Jamaal Charles last season, or Tom Brady in 2008) and it’s over. You need an awful lot of things that aren’t in your control to go right in order for your team to win.
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QB
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Drew Brees
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Aaron Rodgers
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Cam Newton
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Tom Brady
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Michael Vick
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Matthew Stafford
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Eli Manning
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Tony Romo
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Philip Rivers
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Matt Ryan
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Jay Cutler
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Peyton Manning
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Ben Roethlisberger
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Matt Schaub
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Carson Palmer
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Josh Freeman
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Robert Griffin III
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Joe Flacco
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Andy Dalton
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Ryan Fitzpatrick
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Andrew Luck
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Jake Locker
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Matt Flynn
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Mark Sanchez
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Sam Bradford
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Alex Smith
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Matt Cassell
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Christian Ponder
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Tier 2 – Tier 2 consists of guys that have the potential to
hit the Tier 1 level, but have a little more risk attached. Michael Vick was
the top points per game producer in 2010, so his current average price (he’s
going 44th in Yahoo! drafts) is worth it. Stafford is going at the
price of a Tier 1, but I have my concerns. He’s only been healthy for one full
season, and has a history of shoulder issues. Call me stubborn, but I want to
see one more year of good health before I use a second round pick on Stafford.
Manning and Romo are surprisingly similar (at least in the regular season),
capable of single handedly winning and losing a week for your team. A backup
quarterback can be picked as insurance in case of injury or a string of poor
performances (although I wouldn’t recommend it), but you should not bench one
of the Tier 2 players because your backup has a favorable match up.
Tiers 3 and 4 – Players who unless they establish trust, are
best used in platoons. If the draft breaks right, you could grab two guys from
these groups. For example, pairing Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan (currently going in
the ninth and tenth rounds) makes a great deal of sense if you miss out on the
first two tiers.
Tier 5 – This group is full of players who have too much
unpredictability. Roethlisberger would be a Tier 3 if it weren’t for his “tiny
little torn rotator cuff”. Schaub is an injury waiting to happen. Carson Palmer
is a sneaky sleeper, but shouldn’t be drafted as your starter. Josh Freeman’s
might have the largest gap between his ceiling and his floor.
Tier 6 –I’m pessimistic of RGIII, but will grant that his
fantasy potential is greater than fellow rookie Andrew Luck. However, his
slight build and lack of a go-to wide receiver (sorry Santana Moss fans) make
me believe he will not duplicate Cam Newton’s 2011 season.
Tiers 7 and 8 – None of these guys should be drafted (unless
you’re in a giant league, or a league that starts two QBs every week), but keep
them in mind for bye weeks.
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RB
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Ray Rice
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LeSean McCoy
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Arian Foster
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Chris Johnson
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Darren McFadden
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Matt Forte
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Adrian Peterson
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Trent Richardson
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DeMarco Murray
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Jamaal Charles
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Maurice Jones-Drew
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Ryan Matthews
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Doug Martin
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Marshawn Lynch
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Fred Jackson
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Steven Jackson
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Reggie Bush
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Michael Turner
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Frank Gore
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Darren Sproles
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Beanie Wells
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Ahmad Bradshaw
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Willis McGahee
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Jonathan Stewart
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BenJarvus Green-Ellis
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Roy Helu
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Shonn Greene
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Isaac Redman
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Stevan Ridley
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Jahvid Best
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Donald Brown
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James Starks
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DeAngelo Williams
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C.J. Spiller
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Mark Ingram
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Pierre Thomas
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Ben Tate
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Peyton Hillis
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Ryan Williams
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Toby Gerhart
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Michael Bush
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David Wilson
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Jacquizz Rodgers
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LeGarrette Blount
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Felix Jones
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Mikel LeShoure
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Rashad Jennings
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Joe McKnight
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Daniel Thomas
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Tier 2 – Every back in Tier 2 is capable of being top
scoring fantasy runningback, but have some sort of question mark. Most are
injury related, Chris Johnson is performance related (he’s only three years
removed from a 2,000 yard season), and Maurice Jones-Drew is contract related.
All of these backs need to be started when healthy. Tier 2 runningbacks will be
off the board between the middle of the first through the end of the second
round, and are the most likely players to sink your team.
Tier 3 and 4 – Players who have more question marks than
Tier 2, with the added caveat that they are not automatic starts. Tier 3 backs
can be drafted as your second runningback, while tier 4s are best served being
no better than your third option.
Tier 5 – Here’s a group of backs that appear to have the
inside track on playing time, but have never demonstrated before that they can
handle a full workload. The only exception in this group is DeAngelo Williams,
who hasn’t been a force since single-handedly deciding fantasy leagues in the
2008 fantasy playoffs.
Tier 6 – Backs with no immediate path to the majority of
carries, but if they rose up to number one on the depth chart, would be viable
fantasy starters. All of these players should be drafted as either handcuffs
for your starters or lottery tickets. At least three of the Tier 6 backs will
make a significant impact this season.
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WR
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Calvin Johnson
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Larry Fitzgerald
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Roddy White
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A.J. Green
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Andre Johnson
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Victor Cruz
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Brandon Marshall
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Wes Welker
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Hakeem Nicks
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Greg Jennings
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Mike Wallace
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Steve Smith
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Brandon Lloyd
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Miles Austin
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Julio Jones
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Antonio Brown
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Dez Bryant
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Demaryius Thomas
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Jordy Nelson
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Marques Colston
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Dwayne Bowe
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Stevie Johnson
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Percy Harvin
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Eric Decker
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Jeremy Maclin
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Vincent Jackson
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Kenny Britt
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DeSean Jackson
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Reggie Wayne
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Pierre Garcon
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Robert Meachem
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Sidney Rice
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Torrey Smith
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Darrius Heyward-Bey
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Denarius Moore
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Justin Blackmon
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Mike Williams
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Malcolm Floyd
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Santana Moss
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Michael Crabtree
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Greg Little
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Anquan Boldin
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Michael Floyd
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Santonio Holmes
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Laurent Robinson
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Nate Burleson
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Randy Moss
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Lance Moore
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Nate Washington
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Mario Manningham
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Davone Bess
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Danny Amendola
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Jon Baldwin
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Tier 1 – The only two receivers in fantasy that are
“quarterback proof”, meaning that they will still produce regardless of who is
throwing too them. Both will be taken in the first round in 12-team leagues,
with Megatron warranting consideration as a top pick in PPR leagues.
Tiers 2, 3, and 4 – All of these receivers can be targeted
as your two starting wide receivers. There isn’t a great deal of difference
between the second and fourth tiers, so consider that when you’re thinking
about taking Roddy White in the second round.
Tiers 5 and 6 – Players that have had success in the past,
but are either in new situations, or are boom or bust players (think 160 yards
and two touchdowns or one catch for nine yards). I wouldn’t feel great about
having one of these guys as my second wide receiver, but all of them have the
potential to be top-10 fantasy producers.
Tier 7 – All of these guys should be drafted, but until they
establish a track record of success, should be bye week options only.
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TE
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Jimmy
Graham
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Rob
Gronkowski
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Antonio Gates
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Vernon Davis
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Aaron Hernandez
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Jermichael Finley
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Jason Witten
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Fred Davis
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Jacob Tamme
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Brandon Pettigrew
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Jermaine Gresham
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Tony
Gonzalez
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Brent
Celek
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Jared
Cook
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Owen
Daniels
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Coby Fleener
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Dallas Clark
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Greg Olsen
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Tony Moeaki
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Ed Dickson
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Kyle Rudolph
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Heath Miller
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Kellen Winslow
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Mercedes Lewis
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Martellus Bennett
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Todd Heap
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Joel Dreessen
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Anthony Fasano
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Tier 1 – Graham and Gronkowski are in a class by themselves.
I’d personally consider either of them at the end of the first if all the Tier
1 players at the other three positions were off the board.
Tier 2 – Antonio Gates is the only player that if healthy,
is capable of delivering Tier 1 production. Similar to Michael Vick, he’s going
in the middle of the fifth round in 10-team leagues, making him a potential
league-swinging player.
Tier 3 – Solid, proven commodities that may not produce 12
receptions, 150 yards, and three touchdowns in a single game, but will be
reliable sources of scoring week after week.
Tier 4 – Players that don’t have the track record of the
Tier 3 group, but are also capable of being reliable weekly starters. Davis in
particular is an intriguing player if you miss out on the top-end talent.
Tier 5, 6, and 7 – Best served as bye week substitutes
(although one of these guys would have to start in a 12-team league).
If you’re
looking for defense and kicker rankings, you’ve come to the wrong place. Here
are a few rules No Credentials has followed over the years (with a decent
amount of success.
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Don’t draft a kicker until the final round. If you do, you’re
a dumbass (sorry, there’s no other way to word it).
-
Depending on your league scoring settings, it’s best to wait
until the next to last round to snag a defense (I will only adjust this if the
league I’m in awards extra points than usual for fewer points allowed). If you
wait on defense, you can play the match-ups every week using the waiver wire.
The value of hitting it big with a runningback you took in the ninth round is
considerably greater than the value of a third ranked defense you could’ve taken
at the same point. With that said…
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Hoard runningbacks and wide receivers like they are canned
fruit and the plague is about to hit. These are the positions where out of the
blue breakouts are the most likely, and they also are the spots hit the hardest
by injuries.
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Only draft one tight end. It’s a really deep position this
year, and the waiver wire will have plenty of options for you if you need to
cover a bye or deal with an injury. Even if you draft a second tight end and he
breaks out, you’ll have a very hard time moving him via trade because everyone
else should have a solid one on his or her roster.
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Before determining the number of players you need to take at
each position, you need to understand the quality of players you have taken in
the first six. Let’s assume you are building a 15-man roster. Three spots are
going to be eaten up by a tight end, defense, and kicker (if you take a back-up
at any of those positions, remember, you’re a dumb ass), so that leaves you 12
spots for three positions. If you end up with one of the Tier 1 or Tier 2
quarterbacks, you shouldn’t take a back up (use the waiver wire to find a QB
with a favorable match-up in your starter’s bye week), giving you 11 spots to
play with. If you’re first pick was Calvin Johnson, you should finish with four
or five wide receivers drafted, and six or seven runningbacks. If Ray Rice was
your first pick, you should flip that. Lastly, if you took a quarterback in the
first round, you should aim for a six-five split between receiver and runningback.
Now it’s time to explain how tiers can be used to
help plan your draft. At some point, you’ll eventually find out when you’re
picking in the first round. Whether you have three weeks or 30 minutes, that’s
plenty of time to figure out a strategy.
As soon as you know where you are
picking, you need to determine what your first priority is. For example, if you
are dead set on landing a top tier runningback, you need to assess if that’s
possible based on the average spot they are being taken (this info is available
through both ESPN and Yahoo’s fantasy pages). Based on my tiers, I would
probably need a top-3 pick to make this happen. If you decide you want
Gronkowski or Graham, you know you need to snag them before the middle of the
second. If you’re fine landing a second tier quarterback, you know you can
draft one in the fifth or sixth rounds. In theory, it makes sense to wait as
long as possible to grab the last player left in a given tier. For example, if
there are three Tier 3 receivers left, and you have two of the next four picks,
it’s wise to address another position before grabbing one of the receivers.
Hell, if two of them are taken before you pick again, your decision is that
much easier. What would No Credentials ideal draft look like? I hate to be a politician, but that would all depend on where I’m picking and the size of the league. If I’m in an eight or ten team league, I’m waiting on quarterback. 12 or more teams, and I’m coming out with no worse than a Tier 2 QB. I’d really want one of the Tier 1 runningbacks, but if I don’t land a top-3 pick, would probably plan on drafting seven of them during the draft. The odds of me taking a Tier 1 tight end are slim, unless I’m buried low in the first round.
For grins and giggles, here’s a breakdown of which positions I would take in each round if I landed the third pick in a snake style, 12-team draft.
- Tier 1 RB
- Tier 2 RB
- Tier 2 WR
- Tier 2 or 3 WR
- Tier 2 QB
- Tier 3 TE
- WR or RB
- WR or RB
- WR or RB
- WR or RB
- WR or RB
- WR or RB
- WR or RB
- DEF
- K (if you take one any sooner than this, remember, you're a dumbass)
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