Thanksgiving NFL Picks

Packers (-6.5) over LIONS
Anytime you can get the Packers at anything under seven points, jump on it.

Green Bay 41, Detroit 24
Confidence Score = 16

COWBOYS (-7) over Dolphins
I've been riding the Dolphins for a few weeks now (ever since they almost screwed up a three-team teaser for me), but it's asking a lot for them to go into Dallas on three days rest. Expect Matt Moore to fall back to Earth Thursday afternoon.

Dallas 28, Miami 13
Confidence Score = 8

49ers (+3) over RAVENS
I wish I could have gotten the 49ers at +5 (which is where this game opened), but I'll stick with them for this column. Logically, you could put both teams into a teaser, as this game should be decided by less than seven points.

San Francisco 17, Baltimore 16
Confidence Score = 5


Have a happy Thanksgiving.

Thanksgiving Day NFL Picks

            I don’t mean to brag or anything, but I was quite pleased with myself for going 10-5-1 against the spread last week (okay, I do mean to brag). I’m just posting picks for the Thanksgiving Day games tonight. I’ll post picks for Sunday and Monday night Friday or Saturday (I just mentioned four days of the week in the same sentence. That must be some sort of record). Home teams will be listed in all capital letters. Enjoy the picks, and I hope all 15 of you that read this column have a very happy Thanksgiving.

LIONS (+7) over Patriots

            At first glance, this looks like a slam-dunk pick for the Patriots. If you dig a little bit though, you can make a compelling case for the Lions (if I lose this pick, than I promise to not to dig too much into any further games). Detroit has outscored their opponents by 44 points in four home games so far this season. Their only two losses at home were to Super Bowl contenders (Philadelphia and the Jets), and both were by three points. Calvin Johnson should have a field day against the Patriots’ 31^st ranked pass defense.

This match-up also sets up to be a classic trap game for the Patriots, having already played the Steelers and Colts the past two weeks, and an epic showdown with the Jets coming up in their next game. I still like the Patriots to win, but I will pick the Lions to keep it close.

Patriots 31, Lions 27

Saints (-3.5) over COWBOYS

            People are a little too excited about Jason Garrett and the Dallas Cowboys. New Orleans remembers that Dallas ruined their perfect season a week ago. Drew Brees will encounter very little resistance from the Cowboys’ secondary. I would love to see the Cowboys pull off the upset, but I can’t in good conscious recommend betting on Dallas to win this one.

Saints 38, Cowboys 21

JETS (-9) over Bengals

            If you are in a fantasy league, and you own Terrell Owens, DO NOT start him. After Owen’s comments he made about Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis, he’s going to need firearms to get open. I have a feeling the Jets are tired of having every game come down to the wire. They are due for a blow out victory.

Jets 27, Bengals 6