2015 Fantasy Football Preview: Defense

            We previously discussed why you should wait until your very last pick (or only spend $1 in an auction) on a kicker. Now, I’m here to tell you why you should wait to pick a fantasy defense until your second to last pick.

            The scoring potential of a fantasy defense is dependant on the format of your league, but my logic for picking one isn’t impacted by scoring. Here’s our thesis…

            A fantasy defense’s scoring output is driven more by the quality of the opposing offense.

            With the rules of the game the way they are today, good offenses are more often than not going to score on good defenses. Just look at what the Patriots did in the Super Bowl to Seattle last February. I’d much rather own a defense that’s going up against one of the worst offenses every week (if that isn’t a Troy Aikman-esque observation, I don’t know what is).

            Putting that theory to test, let’s look at whom the teams that were the five worst offenses in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE play during weeks 14 through 16 of the NFL season (those are the weeks of the fantasy playoffs, depending on your league setup). With each team listed, we’ll list the pre-season fantasy rank (as generated by Yahoo) of each defense they face.

Jaguars: Colts (13), Falcons (26), @ Saints (30)

Raiders: @ Broncos (17), Packers (9), Chargers (27)

Titans: @ Jets (29), @ Patriots (7), Texans (3)

Buccaneers: Saints (30), @ Rams (5), Bears (24)

Jets: Titans (28), @ Cowboys (19), Patriots (7)

            Of this group, the Patriots and Saints are the only teams that appear twice. New Orleans has a good chance of being a car fire this season, but wouldn’t you like their chances against Famous Jameis and Blake Bortles? You’ll be able to scoop them up off of the waiver wire at some point in November. The Patriots would be my ideal defense that I would hope to have fall into the second to last round, as their pathetic division opponents coupled with their relatively easy fantasy playoff slate (their week 14 opponent is Houston, who might be playing J.J. Watt at quarterback by the time they meet in December) set up nicely.

            To summarize…don’t over value fantasy defenses (translation: don’t use your sixth round pick on the Seahawks defense), and be prepared to work the waiver wire. 

2015 Fantasy Football Preview: Kickers

            Normally we start our fantasy football player rankings with the quarterback position, but due to the delay in reducing Tom Brady’s suspension (I say reduce because it would be insane if he misses the same amount of games as Greg Hardy), we’re going to begin with kicker, and why you should wait until the last round to take one.

            I’m going to hit you over the head with some math, so bear with us. The following numbers will be the difference between the point total of the kicker who led the league in scoring versus the kicker who finished twelfth (No Credentials advises folks to play in leagues with 12 teams or fewer, unless you’re a crazy person) over the last five years.

2014 = 29

2013 = 31

2012 = 35

2011 = 44

2010 = 33

Average = 34.4

            That looks like a decent amount of points, but now lets divide those totals by sixteen to give us the difference on a per-game basis.

2014 = 1.81

2013 = 1.94

2012 = 2.19

2011 = 2.75

2010 = 2.06

Average = 2.15

            Certainly two points can be the difference in a win or loss, but that difference isn’t enough to justify using a mid-round pick on a kicker. It makes much more sense to take fliers on runningbacks and wide receivers with picks in the later rounds.

            To hammer this point home, we’re going to look at Stephen Gostkowski. Gostkowski has led the league in scoring each of the past three seasons, so it’s reasonable that he is the first kicker taken in fantasy drafts. That doesn’t mean you should use an eighth round pick on him, or get into a bidding war for his services in an auction. Let’s look at his point totals for every game the last three seasons.

2014 = 8, 12, 10, 2, 19, 13, 9, 15, 13, 6, 10, 3, 11, 11, 5, 9

2013 = 11, 7, 11, 12, 6, 12, 9, 9, 13, 8, 10, 10, 7, 8, 11, 14

2012 = 10, 12, 12, 10, 7, 11, 9, 9, 13, 11, 7, 11, 6, 10, 11, 4

            The highest scoring fantasy kicker the last three years only managed to crack double-digit points just over 60% of the time. So to conclude this post, please don’t use anything other than you’re last draft pick on a kicker.