50% Chance of Being Accurate 2014 Kentucky Derby Preview

            Incredibly, this is our third annual Kentucky Derby preview. I’ve posted the video of the 2012 Derby in this space on several occasions, so it won’t kill us to watch it one more time.

            Last year, the horse we picked led for about five seconds before Orb blew it away coming off the final turn (I don’t remember the name, I just know it had something to do with war veterans). Despite last year’s failure, we’re still following the same rules that led us to choose I’ll Have Another two years ago. They are as follows.

1.                      The horse has to have a cool name. Kind of like pro athletes and actors, if the horse doesn’t have a name, he doesn’t have a game.

2.                      I want some good odds. I’d rather win $600 on a $20 investment betting on Vicar’s in Trouble than $50 on a $20 wager on California Chrome.

3.                      If a horse covers the first two bases, I needed to find at least one writer on-line who thought that horse could win.

            Without further ado, our rankings. Please note that with the exception of the horse we chose to win, the odds listed for the rest of the field are what the betting lines opened at. I’m too lazy to change all of them (sorry!).

20. Danza (10-1)

            Holy shit, we have a horse named after none other than Tony Danza (EDITORS NOTE: We didn’t actually confirm whether this was true or not, but it would be amusing if that was the truth). I don’t like Tony Danza.

19. General A Rod (15-1)

            Loosely associating your horse with Alex Rodriguez isn’t a good idea these days.

18. Vicar’s In Trouble (30-1)

            A shockingly prophetic name, as Vicar drew the rail.

17. Uncle Sigh (30-1)

            Equal parts offbeat and uninspiring, this could be the weirdest name for a horse in the three years we’ve done this.

16. Commanding Curve (50-1)

            Whether its referencing Satchel Paige’s famous out pitch or Kim Kardashian’s backside, we’re not ready to plunk $20 on C.C.

15. Hoppertunity (withdrawn)

            An annual highlight of this post is making fun of Bob Baffert, but kudos to him for pulling one of the favorites out of the Derby due to a sore foot.

14. Harry’s Holiday (50-1)

            What’s the nature of Harry’s Holiday? Is it a Christmas spent in the Caribbean? New Year’s Eve in Times Square? Playing hooky from work? I want answers.

13. Samraat (15-1)

            I have a bias against words that feature the same vowel used consecutively.

12. We Miss Artie (50-1)

            Either the owner is a Howard Stern fan who misses Artie Lange, or there was a lost family member named Artie. No Credentials offers our condolences.

11. Tapiture (15-1)

            There is a tapestry we have in our bedroom that acts like a pseudo curtain. Often when we pull it down at night, it falls down. I hate this tapestry.

10. Intense Holiday (12-1)

            No Credentials forecasts a 50% chance that the name of this horse originates from adultery.

9. Wildcat Red (15-1)

            It should be international law that any ski-bum bar has a patron nicknamed Wildcat Red.

8. Medal Count (20-1)

            Whether referencing Olympic athletes or on-line gamers, this is the first participant I considered picking to win.

7. Ride on Curlin (15-1)

            Is it the name of a lost B-Side from Led Zeppelin III, or a racehorse? Apparently, the latter.

6. California Chrome (5-2)

            On paper, he’s the class of the field by a landslide. Fortunately, the Derby isn’t run on paper.

5. Chitu (20-1)

            Initially ranked him first, but deeper research shows he’s not a closer. This is a bummer, because we wanted to bet on a horse whose name could’ve been the name of a Rush song in the late ‘70s.

4. Wicked Strong (8-1)

            If Wicked Strong was named to honor the victims of the Boston Marathon, why didn’t they just name it Boston Strong? That coupled with it’s outside post position give us reason not to wager on him.

3. Vinceremos (30-1)

            This year’s winner of coolest name (no one else in the field could share their moniker with a Transformer), but unfortunately we couldn’t find one writer that would even mention him as a contender.

2. Candy Boy (20-1
            Candy Boy brings me back to 50 Cent’s heyday. That’s probably not a good thing.

1. Dance With Fate (14-1)

            There’s a lot to like here. For starters, he’s not simply racing, he’s literally dancing with fucking fate. Second, he’s among the top closers in the field, which typically plays well on the longer Churchill Downs track. Lastly, after opening at 20-1, his odds have dropped to 14-1, and he could be in single digits before the race starts tomorrow. Dance With Fate is our choice to take down the 2014 Kentucky Derby.