Week 15 NFL Picks

Programming Note = There’s no line yet for the 49ers-Steelers Monday night game due to Big Ben’s bum ankle. As soon as a line is posted we’ll make a pick.

BILLS (-1) over Dolphins

I’m not crazy about the Bills, but am less crazy about a team that just fired their head coach.

Buffalo 21, Miami 17

Confidence Score = 3

Redskins (+7) over GIANTS

Washington beat the Giants in Week 1, and should be able to throw all over the putrid Giants secondary. Expect Sexy Rex Grossman to keep this game close until a backbreaking turnover late in the fourth quarter.

New York 34, Washington 31

Confidence Score = 5

Packers (-14) over CHIEFS

I might put Green Bay into five different two-team teasers this week. I feel like the undefeated Packers aren’t the best match-up for a team that just canned its head coach.

Green Bay 34, Kansas City 17

Confidence Score = 11

Saints (-7) over VIKINGS

Minnesota’s pass defense was not built to shut down Akili Smith, much less Drew Brees. New Orleans can move into position to snag the second seed in the NFC with a win and a San Francisco loss Monday night.

New Orleans 48, Minnesota 27

Confidence Score = 14

BEARS (-3.5) over Seahawks

The unwatchable game of the week, sponsored by “Tyler Perry’s House of Pain”.

Chicago 10, Seattle 0

Confidence Score = 9

TEXANS (-6) over Panthers

Carolina’s defense can’t stop anyone. Houston might run for 300 yards Sunday.

Houston 27, Carolina 17

Confidence Score = 6

Titans (-6.5) over COLTS

Chris Johnson fantasy owners that were patient and are somehow still alive in their fantasy playoffs… you will be rewarded handsomely this Sunday.

Tennessee 28, Indianapolis 14

Confidence Score = 15

Bengals (-7) over RAMS

I’d be more confidence about this pick if the Bengals were home, but I could see St. Louis showing up for this game (assuming they don’t have to attempt to score from the one-yard line).

Cincinnati 23, St. Louis 14

Confidence Score = 4

RAIDERS (+1) over Lions

Oakland can’t stop the run. Detroit can’t run the ball. That bodes well for the Raiders.

Oakland 27, Detroit 24
Confidence Score = 7

BRONCOS (+7.5) over Patriots

Ultimately this game comes down to the match-up between God and the golden horseshoe that’s been stuffed up Tom Brady’s ass for the last decade. I can’t in good faith (pun intended) bet against God, His QB, and His team. Well, in terms of covering the spread anyway.

New England 28, Denver 21

Confidence Score = 1

EAGLES (-3) over Jets

Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal both mentioned this possibility on their podcast Monday, but it’s worth repeating. If the Cowboys and Giants finish the season 8-8, and the Eagles win out, Philadelphia wins the NFC East.

Philadelphia 20, New York 14

Confidence Score = 13

CARDINALS (-6.5) over Browns

It’s hard to believe that the Arizona Cardinals could be .500 after this week with a win over Cleveland.

Arizona 24, Cleveland 3

Confidence Score = 16

CHARGERS (+2.5) over Ravens

I think San Diego’s remarkable similarities to the Dallas Cowboys are the reason I’m so easily hooked by them. That and I think Joe Flacco is due for a clunker. (EDITORS NOTE: I hedged on that last statement by just inserting Torrey Smith into one of my fantasy teams lineups for the semi-finals. Either way, I should win somehow)

San Diego 24, Baltimore 21

Confidence Score = 12

Thursday Pick = 1-0
Last Week = 8-8
LW Top-5 = 2-3
Season = 103-97-8
Season Top-5 = 35-33-2

Week 15 NFL Picks

I forgot to post my Thursday pick, so you're just going to have to trust that I wouldn't pick a team quarterbacked by Alex Smith on the road in San Diego.

 

Bills (+5.5) over DOLPHINS

I want to continue my string of getting every Dolphins’ game wrong.

RAVENS (-1) over Saints

New Orleans is way to popular of a pick this week because of Baltimore’s struggles against Houston a week ago. I’ll go against the national consensus.

Texans (+1.5) over TITANS

Tennessee has pretty much mailed it in ever since Jeff Fisher and Vince Young had their little spat. Not sure how they can be favored over a Texans team that shut them out three weeks ago, and at the very least, puts in a solid effort every week.

PANTHERS (-2.5) over Cardinals

Very, very, very weird game. Carolina should just throw the game to preserve the #1 pick in next year’s draft (and the ability to acquire Stanford QB Andrew Luck). Arizona is trotting out a quarterback from Fordham. I guess I’ll just take the home team, and promise not to wager actual money on this game.

Browns (+1) over BENGALS

Colt McCoy is back baby! Can’t believe I just typed that, but it’s true.

COWBOYS (-6) over Redskins

How about the Redskins pulling up fast on the home stretch for the prize of most dysfunctional franchise of the year? They’ve passed Dallas, although we need one or two more crazy things to go down in D.C. before they pass the Vikings.

COLTS (-4.5) over Jaguars

This is one of those situations where I should absolutely take the Jaguars, but can’t let go of the delusion that somehow Manning will carry the Colts to the victory and the playoffs.

Eagles (+3) over GIANTS

Philadelphia dominated the Giants offense in their first meeting.

Lions (+5.5) over BUCCANEERS

The Lions have treated me well the last couple weeks. I’ll hope for another 3-point defeat.

RAMS (+1) over Chiefs

It looks like it will be Brodie Croyle (and his career record of 0-10) under center again. Has a team ever been crushed so much by an appendix late in the year?

SEAHAWKS (+7) over Falcons

I keep picking against Atlanta because I believe there is no way that team should finish a season 14-2. They have to lose at some point.

Jets (+6) over STEELERS

I think the Steelers will win, but it will be of the 13-10 variety.

RAIDERS (-6.5) over Broncos

Tim Tebow should light a spark…for the Raiders defense.

PATRIOTS (-11) over Packers

With Aaron Rodgers out, this line could’ve been (-38) and I would still pick the Patriots.

Bears (-6) over VIKINGS

Love the outdoor night game being played in Minnesota, but I do not have as much love for Joe Webb at quarterback for the Vikings.

Season Record = 33-30-1
Thursday Pick = 1-0