Week 12 NFL Picks

RAMS (-3) over Cardinals

            I just bet $5 on the 39.5 under, so get your life savings wagered on the over ASAP.

St. Louis 17, Arizona 10

Confidence Score = 6

JETS (-9.5) over Bills

            Just when things were starting to get worse in Buffalo, Fred Jackson was lost for the season.

New York 38, Buffalo 17

Confidence Score = 13

BENGALS (-7) over Browns

            It’s plausible that Cincinnati will over look Cleveland, but a strong second half from the Bengals will be enough to cover the spread.

Cincinnati 24, Cleveland 10

Confidence Score = 7

Texans (-6.5) over JAGUARS

            Matt Leinart won’t look bad in Jacksonville, which is easy to do when he probably won’t throw the ball more than 15 times.

Houston 20, Jacksonville 7

Confidence Score = 10

COLTS (+3.5) over Panthers

            The Colts have a two-game lead in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, which means they can win this week so they don’t go 0-16.

Indianapolis 21, Carolina 20

Confidence Score = 2

TITANS (-3.5) over Buccaneers

            People are a little too excited about Tampa after their performance in Green Bay last week.

Tennessee 23, Tampa Bay 16

Confidence Score = 9

FALCONS (-9.5) over Vikings

            No Adrian Peterson equals too much Great White Hope (aka Toby Gerhart). That’s not a good thing.

Atlanta 34, Minnesota 10

Confidence Score = 12

Bears (+4) over RAIDERS

            Strangest game of the week to pick. Ultimately, I think Chicago’s defense will shut down Oakland.

Chicago 14, Oakland 6

Confidence Score = 1

SEAHAWKS (-3.5) over Redskins

            I’m way to confident in a team quarterbacked by Tavaris Jackson, but I don’t care.

Seattle 24, Washington 10

Confidence Score = 15

Patriots (-3.5) over EAGLES

            I have a feeling that Bill Belichick will enjoy driving a stake through the heart of the Eagle’s 2011 season.

New England 34, Philadelphia 21

Confidence Score = 11

Broncos (+6) over CHARGERS

            God hates the Chargers. God loves his quarterback. I rest my case.

Denver 24, San Diego 23

Confidence Score = 4

Steelers (-10.5) over CHIEFS

            Pittsburgh could run no offensive plays and probably still win this game by double digits.

Pittsburgh 41, Kansas City 3

Confidence Score = 14

Giants (+7.5) over SAINTS

            Call me naïve, but I think this line is 4.5 points too high.

New Orleans 31, New York 28

Confidence Score = 3

Thursday Picks = 1-2 (I'm 1-4 picking Thursday games. Weird)
Last Week Picks = 7-6-1
LW Top-5 = 3-2
Season Picks = 82-70-8
S Top-5 = 28-25-2

Week 12 NFL Picks

            My Thanksgiving picks weren’t too hot (although if I was playing the money line, I would’ve won all three games, but that’s not the gimmick here). Hopefully we’ll get back on track here with the Sunday slate.

 

Vikings (+1) over REDSKINS

            This line has move 1.5 points since Wednesday. Apparently most of America is on board with a team playing much better after firing an incompetent coach (see Wade Phillips and the Dallas Cowboys). I expect to see a much stronger effort from the Vikings than we’ve seen the past few weeks.

Vikings 23, Redskins 10

Steelers (-7) over BILLS

            Buffalo has been a fun little team the past few weeks. I’m not sure how many teams in NFL history have comeback from being down 17 to end up winning by 18, but that’s exactly what the Bills pulled off in Cincinnati last week. I’d like to see Buffalo win this game, but their offensive line will not hold up against the Steelers defense.

Steelers 30, Bills 13

TEXANS (-6.5) over Titans

            I need to see Rusty Smith cover a point spread before I endorse a team quarterbacked by him to do so.

Texans 27, Titans 14

Jaguars (+7) over GIANTS

            The Giants should win this game, but they will have a hard time covering this spread without their top two wideouts. Whatever you do, don’t bet the over with this game.

Giants 13, Jaguars 10

BROWNS (-10) over Panthers

            Word on the street is the Panthers signed an employee from a Jiffy Lube in Charlotte to play quarterback this weekend. Okay, I made that up, but would you have been surprised if it was actually true? I would’ve only been mildly stunned.

Browns 24, Panthers 12

FALCONS (-1.5) over Packers

If Atlanta is really a serious threat to win the NFC, they need to win this game.

Falcons 20, Packers 17

SEAHAWKS (+2) over Chiefs

            Kansas City gave up 263 points at Denver two weeks ago (alright it was only 49, but it felt like 263). Kansas City is a solid young team, but I’m not sure if they know how to win on the road. We’ll see how they do in a very hostile environment.

Seahawks 27, Chiefs 17

RAIDERS (EVEN) over Dolphins

            I honestly don’t know what to think about this game. The Steelers smashed Oakland last Sunday (as accurately predicted in my week 11 picks column, thank you very much). Miami was shut out at home by Chicago (not accurately predicted, we won’t talk about that game). I guess I’ll take the team that’s at home and not playing their 3^rd string quarterback.

Raiders 13, Dolphins 7

Buccaneers (+7.5) at RAVENS

            Las Vegas has no love for Josh Freeman and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Last week, they were three point underdogs to a 3-6 football team. After pitching a shut out, they still can’t get respect. I won’t sit here and guarantee a Buccaneers win, but there’s a good chance they keep it very close. If Buffalo can push the Ravens to overtime at home, why can’t Tampa give them a game?

Ravens 21, Buccaneers 17

Eagles (-3.5) over BEARS

            I refuse to believe in the Chicago Bears.

Eagles 24, Bears 10

BRONCOS (-3.5) over Rams

            This is one of those match-ups where you pick whoever is playing at home. I don’t believe that either team is better than the other, but St. Louis is not good enough yet to win a game in an environment like Denver.

Broncos 37, Rams 16

COLTS (-3) over Chargers

            I’ll use the same logic I used when picking last Sunday night’s Eagles-Giants game. San Diego looked much better than they are on Monday night. Indianapolis didn’t necessarily look bad, but didn’t get the job done against New England. This will be my “market correction” pick of the week (keep in mind I incorrectly picked the Giants to win last week. If I miss this game, there will be no more “market correction” picks).

Colts 34, Chargers 27

 CARDINALS (+1) over 49ers

            After this season, I vote that we give all four NFC West teams to the CFL. No one will notice that any of those teams are gone.

Cardinals 17, 49ers 6

Week 11 Record = 10-5-1

Thanksgiving Record = 1-2

Total Record = 11-7-1