Wednesday, March 16, 2016

2016 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft = Final Rosters


            So we fully intended to do a round by round posting of our mock draft, but here’s the deal…I fall asleep all over the place. Now on the wrong side of 30, I don’t have the energy to crank out 300 player profiles anymore. With that said, we did finish our mock draft, and will post the 12 fake teams below. We’ll highlight a couple players of interest for each club, and also discuss the potential strengths and weaknesses of the entire team. Throughout the next week or two, we’ll post a few theories we have formulated after going through the mock.
            Before we post the 12 rosters, here are a few notes.

- We had ranked Jose Reyes before having a clear idea of the length of his absence due to a domestic violence issue. He wouldn’t be drafted at all anymore, and Trevor Story is worth a flier sometime after pick 200.
- Same issue for Johnny Peralta, as he was selected in round 11 before his injury that will force him out of action until the All-Star break. He would still be worth a late-round flier in this league set-up, as the shortstop position is a barren wasteland of sadness once you get past Carlos Correa (more on that in a later post!).
- Keep in mind that this mock is for a redraft league, so we didn’t go really heavy on prospects. We don’t forecast another epic round of prospect debuts like we had last year, as now the majority of the top prospects still need plenty of seasoning in the high-minors.

            Without further ado, here are the twelve rosters.


POS
Team 1
C
R.Martin, TOR (11-121)
1B
P.Goldschmidt, ARI (1-1)
2B
R.Odor, TEX (8-96)
3B
M.Moustakas, KC (16-192)
SS
B.Crawford, SF (14-168)
OF
S.Marte, PIT (2-24)
OF
J.Upton, DET (4-48)
OF
M.Brantley, CLE (6-72)
UT
C.Granderson, NYM (12-144) OF
UT
S.Souza, TB (17-193) OF
C
N.Hundley, COL (24-288)
IF
T.Plouffe, MIN (18-216) 1B-3B
IF
R.Zimmerman, WAS (25-289) 1B
OF
M.Gonzalez, HOU (21-241) 1B-2B-3B-SS-OF
OF
D.DeShields, TEX (22-264) OF
SP
J.Arrieta, CHC (3-25)
SP
Z.Greinke, LAD (5-49)
SP
M.Stroman, TOR (9-97)
SP
M.Wacha, STL (10-120)
SP
S.Matz, NYM (15-169)
SP
I.Kennedy, KC (19-217)
SP
A.Sanchez, DET (23-265)
RP
K.Jansen, LAD (7-73)
RP
G.Perkins, MIN (13-145)
RP
K.Uehara, BOS (20-240)

            Goldschmidt smoothes over a lot of warts, but this roster is a good example of what happens when you use too many early round picks on outfielders and pitchers. Delino DeShields is a great source of cheap steals, assuming he can manage to hang on to the center field gig for the whole season in Texas. Arrieta and Greinke are both prime regression candidates, but even if both of their ERAs go up by one run they will provide plenty of value as anchors of your pitching staff.

POS
Team 2
C
B.McCann, NYY (13-146) 1B
1B
J.Votto, CIN (3-26)
2B
B.Dozier, MIN (7-74)
3B
M.Franco, PHI (10-119)
SS
A.Russell, CHC (17-194) 2B
OF
M.Trout, LAA (1-2)
OF
L.Cain, KC (5-50)
OF
G.Polanco, PIT (9-98)
UT
G.Parra, COL (14-167) OF
UT
M.Teixeira, NYY (15-170) 1B
C
D.Mesoraco, CIN (23-266)
IF
Y.Escobar, LAA (21-242) 3B
IF
J.Gyorko, STL (22-263) 2B-SS
OF
D.Santana, MIL (20-239)
OF
A.Ethier, LAD (24-287)
SP
C.Sale, CHW (2-23)
SP
M.Harvey, NYM (4-47)
SP
J.Lester, CHC (6-71)
SP
Y.Darvish, TEX (11-122)
SP
J.Hammel, CHC (16-191)
SP
C.Buchholz, BOS (18-215)
SP
M.Moore, TB (25-290)
RP
T.Rosenthal, STL (8-95)
RP
A.Ramos, MIA (12-143)
RP
R.Osuna, TOR (19-218)

            With the dearth of talent at third base (in case you didn’t notice, Mike Moustakas was the starting 3B on the first team), Maikel Franco could go two rounds earlier without inciting intense mockery. A.J. Ramos closer gig was in jeopardy, but with Carter Capps blowing out his elbow his job is safe. If you play in a daily league, you could do worse than drafting Andre Ethier late. With Carl Crawford firmly being planted on the pine, Ethier will get the majority of at-bats against right handed pitching in a potent Dodgers lineup.

POS
Team 3
C
W.Castillo, ARI (22-262)
1B
E.Encarnacion, TOR (2-22)
2B
K.Wong, STL (10-118)
3B
M.Sano, MIN (4-46)
SS
E.Andrus, TEX (16-190)
OF
B.Harper, WAS (1-3)
OF
G.Springer, HOU (3-27)
OF
B.Hamilton, CIN (8-94)
UT
H.Ramirez, BOS (13-147) OF
UT
K.Morales, KC (14-166) 1B
C
H.Conger, TB (25-291)
IF
J.Harrison, PIT (18-214) 2B-3B-OF
IF
M.Semien, OAK (20-238) SS
OF
M.Ozuna, MIA (19-219)
OF
K.Pillar, TOR (23-267)
SP
F.Hernandez, SEA (5-51)
SP
D.Salazar, CLE (7-75)
SP
J.Shields, SD (11-123)
SP
G.Gonzalez, WAS (12-142)
SP
P.Corbin, ARI (15-171)
SP
T.Bauer, CLE (21-243)
SP
A.Nola, PHI (24-286)
RP
W.Davis, KC (6-70)
RP
M.Melancon, PIT (9-99)
RP
B.Ziegler, ARI (17-195)

            The tenth round is high for the counting stats Kolten Wong is likely to produce, but with the limited amount of second baseman available (notice a theme yet?), that’s about where you’ll have to draft him. Billy Hamilton is a one trick pony, but if he could somehow get on base at a .300 or better clip, his stolen base production is worth a top-100 selection. Marcus Semien was a disaster in the field in the first half of 2015, and a disaster at the plate in the second half. If he can put both quality halves of play together, he’s a legit top-5 SS candidate. All in all, this roster has plenty of upside offensively to produce in every meaningful offensive category.

POS
Team 4
C
S.Perez, KC (11-124)
1B
E.Hosmer, KC (6-69)
2B
I.Kinsler, DET (8-93)
3B
J.Donaldson, TOR (1-4)
SS
I.Desmond, TEX (13-148) OF
OF
C.Blackmon, COL (2-21)
OF
J.Martinez, DET (3-28)
OF
A.Jones, BAL (5-52)
UT
R.Grichuk, STL (14-165) OF
UT
J.Kang, PIT (17-196) 3B-SS
C
A.Pierzynski, ATL (25-292)
IF
B.Park, MIN (18-213) 1B
IF
D.Pedroia, BOS (20-237) 2B
OF
O.Herrera, PHI (21-244)
OF
E.Gattis, HOU (24-285)
SP
C.Archer, TB (4-45)
SP
G.Richards, LAA (9-100)
SP
M.Pineda, NYY (10-117)
SP
J.Lackey, CHC (12-141)
SP
J.Teharan, ATL (15-172)
SP
H.Santiago, LAA (22-261)
SP
E.Ramirez, TB (23-268)
RP
A.Chapman, NYY (7-76)
RP
A.Vizcaino, ATL (16-189)
RP
W.Smith, MIL (19-220)

            Here’s the team that would likely lead this fake league in home runs, but outside of Charlie Blackmon, there isn’t a whole lot of base stealing going on here. Starting pitching is a little interesting too, but Garrett Richards and Michael Pineda both have advanced stats projecting them to fair better in 2016 than they did a year ago.

POS
Team 5
C
Y.Grandal, LAD (20-236) 1B
1B
A.Gonzalez, LAD (4-44)
2B
R.Cano, SEA (5-53)
3B
J.Turner, LAD (15-173) 1B
SS
M.Machado, BAL (1-5) 3B
OF
N.Cruz, SEA (3-29)
OF
J.Ellsbury, NYY (7-77)
OF
K.Calhoun, LAA (9-101)
UT
K.Davis, OAK (13-149) OF
UT
A.Gordon, KC (16-188) OF
C
W.Ramos, WAS (24-284)
IF
E.Suarez, CIN (19-221) SS
IF
J.Schoop, BAL (21-245) 2B
OF
S.Piscotty, STL (18-212) 1B-OF
OF
N.Aoki, SEA (23-269)
SP
M.Scherzer, WAS (2-20)
SP
F.Liriano, PIT (8-92)
SP
M.Tanaka, NYY (10-116)
SP
S.Miller, ARI (12-140)
SP
D.Smyly, TB (14-164)
SP
J.Eickhoff, PHI (22-260)
SP
J.Paxton, SEA (25-293)
RP
C.Kimbrel, BOS (6-68)
RP
H.Street, LAA (11-125)
RP
J.Hoover, CIN (17-197)

            Team 5 also waited on starting pitching, but that led to a deep lineup with plenty of sleeper potential. Khris Davis has produced dingers at a relatively elite clip over the last two seasons on a per-AB basis, and Oakland is a good place for him to maximize his talents. If Robinson Cano can translate his second half of 2015 into a full 2016 season, he will go down as one of the biggest bargains in fantasy baseball. Drew Smyly is a clean bill of health away from joining the elite ranks of fantasy starting pitchers.

POS
Team 6
C
S.Vogt, OAK (16-187) 1B
1B
D.Ortiz, BOS (7-78)
2B
D.Gordon, MIA (2-19)
3B
N.Arenado, COL (1-6)
SS
C.Seager, LAD (8-91)
OF
Y.Cespedes, NYM (4-43)
OF
C.Gomez, HOU (5-54)
OF
C.Yelich, MIA (11-126)
UT
B.Burns, OAK (14-163) OF
UT
L.Duda, NYM (15-174) 1B
C
J.Realmuto, MIA (23-270)
IF
L.Forsythe, TB (20-235) 1B-2B
IF
C.Hernandez, PHI (21-246) 2B-3B-SS
OF
M.Trumbo, BAL (19-222) 1B-OF
OF
R.Davis, CLE (24-283)
SP
J.deGrom, NYM (3-30)
SP
S.Gray, OAK (6-67)
SP
J.Zimmerman, DET (10-115)
SP
H.Iwakuma, SEA (12-139)
SP
L.Severino, NYY (18-211)
SP
A.Heaney, LAA (22-259)
SP
R.Porcello, BOS (25-294)
RP
C.Allen, CLE (9-102)
RP
S.Tolleson, TEX (13-150)
RP
S.Cishek, SEA (17-198)

            This roster is the first one we are down on. We’re not banking on Cespedes repeating his 2015 numbers, and we forecast serious regression for Jordan Zimmerman moving to the American League. A full season of Billy Burns will help assist Dee Gordon in the stolen base department, and Luis Severino is the best bet to stabilize the starting pitching staff.

POS
Team 7
C
Y.Gomes, CLE (17-199)
1B
J.Abreu, CHW (2-18)
2B
J.Kipnis, CLE (6-66)
3B
T.Frazier, CHW (5-55)
SS
C.Correa, HOU (1-7)
OF
R.Braun, MIL (3-31)
OF
H.Pence, SF (7-79)
OF
B.Belt, SF (10-114) 1B
UT
J.Pederson, LAD (14-162) OF
UT
M.Conforto, NYM (16-186) OF
C
Y.Molina, STL (25-295)
IF
N.Walker, NYM (19-223) 2B
IF
L.Valbuena, HOU (20-234) 1B-3B
OF
B.Miller, TB (22-258) 2B-SS-OF
OF
K.Kermaier, TB (23-271)
SP
D.Price, BOS (4-42)
SP
T.Ross, SD (8-90)
SP
T.Walker, SEA (11-127)
SP
L.McCullers, HOU (12-138)
SP
J.Verlander, DET (13-151)
SP
J.Nelson, MIL (21-247)
SP
B.Finnegan, CIN (24-282)
RP
K.Giles, HOU (9-103)
RP
J.McGee, COL (15-175)
RP
D.Betances, NYY (18-210)


            This is a solid infield from top-to-bottom, especially considering Yan Gomes was regarded as a top-5 catcher a year ago before an injury ravaged 2015. The outfielders are sketchy, but it will take a leap from either Joc Pederson or Michael Conforto to stabilize that group. Justin Verlander was about 75% of his former Cy Young self in the second half of 2015, and that level of performance is worth drafting in round 13.

POS
Team 8
C
B.Posey, SF (3-32) 1B
1B
P.Fielder, TEX (4-41)
2B
M.Carpenter, STL (5-56) 3B
3B
A.Beltre, TEX (8-89)
SS
F.Lindor, CLE (9-104)
OF
J.Bautista, TOR (2-17)
OF
M.Kemp, SD (7-80)
OF
D.Fowler, BAL (11-128)
UT
D.Murphy, WAS (14-161) 1B-2B-3B
UT
C.Dickerson, TB (15-176) OF
C
F.Cervelli, PIT (24-281)
IF
J.Segura, ARI (21-248) SS
IF
P.Alvarez, BAL (22-257) 1B
OF
E.Inciarte, ATL (18-209)
OF
R.Castillo, BOS (25-296)
SP
C.Kershaw, LAD (1-8)
SP
C.Hamels, TEX (6-65)
SP
C.Martinez, STL (10-113)
SP
J.Quintana, CHW (13-152)
SP
Y.Ventura, KC (17-200)
SP
A.Cobb, TB (19-224)
SP
K.Gibson, MIN (23-272)
RP
F.Rodriguez, DET (12-137)
RP
S.Casilla, SF (16-185)
RP
D.Hernandez, PHI (20-233)


            Here is your team least likely to lead this fake league in stolen bases, but it might not matter. The lineup has plenty of pop, and the pitching staff has oodles of strikeout potential. Alex Cobb was a dark horse Cy Young pick in the preseason last year before Tommy John surgery, and is flying under the radar during draft season this year. Of all the places Pedro Alvarez could’ve landed, Baltimore was one of the top-5 options for him. He’ll get plenty of at-bats, and not have to worry about playing defense on a regular basis.

POS
Team 9
C
M.Wieters, BAL (16-184)
1B
F.Freeman, ATL (6-64)
2B
A.Rendon, WAS (8-88) 3B
3B
K.Bryant, CHC (1-9) OF
SS
T.Tulowitzki, TOR (5-57)
OF
M.Betts, BOS (2-16)
OF
B.Revere, WAS (7-81)
OF
B.Gardner, NYY (10-112)
UT
J.Soler, CHC (13-153) OF
UT
M.Moreland, TEX (17-201) 1B
C
J.Castro, HOU (25-297)
IF
D.Travis, TOR (21-249) 2B
IF
E.Aybar, ATL (23-273)
OF
D.Span, SF (19-225)
OF
B.Buxton, MIN (22-256)
SP
J.Fernandez, MIA (3-33)
SP
G.Cole, PIT (4-40)
SP
C.Rodon, CHW (11-129)
SP
J.Odorizzi, TB (12-136)
SP
M.Fiers, HOU (15-177)
SP
K.Gausman, BAL (20-232)
SP
A.DeSclafani, CIN (24-280)
RP
J.Familia, NYM (9-105)
RP
B.Boxberger, TB (14-160)
RP
A.Miller, NYY (18-208)


            Ben Revere is the rare player that could leave the best offense in all of baseball and actually gain value. He rarely ran while with the Blue Jays, and should have the green-light much more in Washington. Jorge Soler was probably picked about four rounds too high, and if this was a real time, it wouldn’t be surprising to forecast Denard Span taking over his starting spot on this club. Carlos Rodon or Kevin Gausman will make a leap this year. If both do it, this pitching staff would be unstoppable.

POS
Team 10
C
J.Lucroy, MIL (10-111) 1B
1B
A.Pujols, LAA (8-87)
2B
D.LeMahieu, COL (13-154)
3B
E.Longoria, TB (9-106)
SS
X.Bogaerts, BOS (7-82)
OF
G.Stanton, MIA (1-10)
OF
A.McCutchen, PIT (2-15)
OF
C.Davis, BAL (4-39) 1B
UT
J.Reddick, OAK (12-135) OF
UT
M.Duffy, SF (15-178) 2B-3B
C
M.Montero, CHC (23-274)
IF
A.Lind, SEA (20-231) 1B
IF
A.Escobar, KC (22-255) SS
OF
W.Myers, SD (18-207) 1B-OF
OF
A.Garcia, CHW (25-298)
SP
C.Kluber, CLE (3-34)
SP
D.Keuchel, HOU (5-58)
SP
J.Cueto, SF (6-63)
SP
S.Kazmir, LAD (14-159)
SP
W.Chen, MIA (16-183)
SP
J.Garcia, STL (21-250)
SP
M.Estrada, TOR (24-279)
RP
H.Rondon, CHC (11-130)
RP
D.Storen, TOR (17-202)
RP
L.Gregerson, HOU (19-226)

            This team has serious boom or bust potential across the board, starting with first round pick (and perennial DL stint dude) Giancarlo Stanton. If future Red Sox Hall of Famer Xander Bogaerts could ever develop some power, you’d be talking about a third round pick instead of a seventh round one. Adam Lind is another daily league darling, as he mashes against right-handed pitching. Dallas Keuchel is a guy we forecast undergoing some serious regression this season. He won’t be on any of our real fantasy teams.

POS
Team 11
C
K.Schwarber, CHC (4-38) OF
1B
A.Rizzo, CHC (1-11)
2B
B.Zobrist, CHC (14-158) OF
3B
D.Wright, NYM (13-155)
SS
J.Peralta, STL (11-131)
OF
A.Pollock, ARI (2-14)
OF
Y.Puig, LAD (5-59)
OF
A.Eaton, CHW (7-83)
UT
M.Holliday, STL (15-179) OF
UT
A.Rodriguez, NYY (16-182)
C
D.Norris, SD (24-278) 1B
IF
B.Lawrie, CHW (18-206) 2B-3B
IF
A.Ramirez, SD (21-251) SS
OF
B.Paulsen, COL (19-227) 1B-OF
OF
M.Cabrera, CHW (25-299)
SP
M.Bumgarner, SF (3-35)
SP
C.Carrasco, CLE (6-62)
SP
A.Wainwright, STL (8-86)
SP
J.Samardzija, SF (12-134)
SP
E.Rodriguez, BOS (17-203)
SP
M.Leake, STL (22-254)
SP
E.Volquez, KC (23-275)
RP
Z.Britton, BAL (9-107)
RP
J.Papelbon, WAS (10-110)
RP
J.Motte, COL (20-230)

            This is a good example of what you can do if you find yourself in the bottom of the first round, as this roster is a good mix of high ceiling and low floor dudes. Jeff Samardzija could be one of the best discounts on draft day, as his switch back to the National League will return him to his 2014 form. Ben Paulsen is one of our favorite sleepers of 2016 that we don’t have statistical backing to support. Sometimes you have to ride the wave.

POS
Team 12
C
T.d'Arnaurd, NYM (14-157)
1B
M.Cabrera, DET (2-13)
2B
J.Altuve, HOU (1-12)
3B
K.Seager, SEA (7-84)
SS
J.Reyes, COL (12-133)
OF
C.Gonzalez, COL (3-36)
OF
J.Heyward, CHC (6-61)
OF
S.Choo, TEX (9-108)
UT
D.Peralta, ARI (13-156) OF
UT
J.Bruce, CIN (15-180) OF
C
B.Swihart, BOS (23-276)
IF
S.Castro, NYY (17-204) 2B-SS
IF
C.Santana, CLE (20-229) 1B
OF
D.Valencia, OAK (21-252) 3B-OF
OF
C.Beltran, NYY (25-300)
SP
S.Strasburg, WAS (4-37)
SP
N.Snydergaard, NYM (5-60)
SP
R.Iglesias, CIN (10-109)
SP
C.McHugh, HOU (11-132)
SP
K.Hendricks, CHC (18-205)
SP
A.Cashner, SD (19-228)
SP
D.Pomeranz, SD (24-277)
RP
D.Robertson, CHW (8-85)
RP
S.Doolittle, OAK (16-181)
RP
D.O'Day, BAL (22-253)

            Team 12 might not have the same depth as Team 11, but we love the duo of Strasburg and Snydergaard at the top of the pitching staff. Jason Heyward might not crack 20 homers, but if he solidifies a place near the top of the Cubs lineup he could be looking at a top-5 performance in runs scored with a sizable bump in stolen bases.