Wednesday, February 24, 2016

2016 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft - Round 2


            If you missed round 1, click here. 

2-13 = Miguel Cabrera – First Baseman – Detroit Tigers – Age 32
            Cabrera has been such a valuable fantasy commodity for over a decade it seems disrespectful to have him come off the board in the second round, but after posting a career low in Isolated Power in 2015, it’s no longer wise to build a fantasy roster around him. It shouldn’t surprise anyone to see him begin the “Albert Pujols on the Angels” phase of his career.

2-14 = A.J. Pollock – Outfield – Arizona Diamondbacks – Age 28
            Pollock quietly had a massive breakout 2015 campaign, obliterating career highs in every meaningful offensive statistic while also earning his first Gold Glove award. He isn’t a first round pick because folks would like to seem him come close to repeating his 2015 performance. It isn’t wise to bank on him racking up 20 homers again, but if that means he pushes his stolen base total over 40 you won’t complain. We’re all in on Pollock.

2-15 = Andrew McCutchen – Outfield – Pittsburgh Pirates – Age 29
            We’ve seen McCutchen ranked as high as fifth on some fantasy sites, but his declining counting stats are why we won’t own McCutchen on any fantasy teams this year. He’s only cracked 30+ dingers once, and his stolen base total plummeted all the way down to 11 in 2015. No Credentials isn’t spending a first round pick on an outfielder who will not crack 40 combined home runs and steals, and neither should you.

2-16 = Mookie Betts – Outfield – Boston Red Sox – Age 23
            Mookie’s strong finish last year gives everyone reason to be excited about his prospects in 2016. It’s reasonable to expect him to eclipse 30 stolen bases, and barring injury he will contend for the league lead in runs scored.

2-17 = Jose Bautista – Outfield – Toronto Blue Jays – Age 35
            Sure he’s old, but 40 homer potential with oodles of RBIs make Bautista worth the investment. You could bump him up a few notches in leagues that count on-base percentage instead of batting average.

2-18 = Jose Abreu – First Baseman – Chicago White Sox – Age 29
            Abreu regressed in most statistics during his second year in the majors, but some of that had to do with the putrid lineup around him. Todd Frazier’s presence (whether he hits before or after Abreu) should help.

2-19 = Dee Gordon – Second Baseman – Miami Marlins – Age 27
            Gordon had a banner first season in south Florida, winning an unlikely batting crown, leading the league in steals, and snagging a Gold Glove. A DL stint was the only thing preventing Gordon from leading the National League in runs scored. Even if his batting average regresses to around .300, his elite stolen base totals are enough to warrant him ranking this high in the mock. Drafting Gordon gives you the peace of mind to target power bats and starting pitchers in the late rounds instead of spending picks on cheap speedsters.

2-20 = Max Scherzer – Starting Pitcher – Washington Nationals – Age 31
            Scherzer delivered a number of dominating performances in 2015, but an inconsistent Nationals squad depressed his win totals. With a little more luck in the health department with the Washington roster, Scherzer will be in line to rank as the most valuable starting pitcher in all of fantasy when 2016 is over.

2-21 = Charlie Blackmon – Outfield – Colorado Rockies – Age 29
            Here’s a case where playing in the wacky confines of Coors Field heavily inflates a dude’s value. Blackmon wouldn’t go this high if you were looking to build a real baseball team, but in the world of fantasy 15 homers and 40 steals go a long way. The greatest risk owning Blackmon (and for that matter, any Rockie not named Nolan Arenado) is the risk of getting traded away if the team stinks.

2-22 = Edwin Encarnacion – First Baseman – Toronto Blue Jays – Age 33
            Here’s another masher from the Blue Jays flying off the board. Encarnacion posted the highest WAR of his career last season, and you could make a case for him to go as high as 15 in a draft.

2-23 = Chris Sale – Starting Pitcher – Chicago White Sox – Age 26
            There are a number of pitchers that will be picked after Sale that posted better ERAs a year ago, but Sale’s dominant strike out totals warrant him being ranked so high. Also, don't underestimate the value of having at least a league average defense behind you (that's something Sale couldn't claim last year). He’s the greatest threat to unseat Clayton Kershaw as the league leader in Ks.

2-24 = Starling Marte – Outfield – Pittsburgh Pirates – Age 27
            If only Marte could learn how to take a walk and not strike out a ton. His plate discipline is what keeps Marte from posting elite run scoring and stolen base totals.

Tuesday, February 16, 2016

2016 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft - Round 1


            2016 is about getting back to basics here at No Credentials (first basic…actually posting stuff more than once a month or two), so we’re bringing back the fantasy baseball mock draft. Loyal readers of this blog (all two of you) will recall that we go through a mock draft where I make the pick for every team. We’re drafting for a fake 12-team, 25-man roster league with the following roster spots.

C-1B-2B-3B-SS-OF-OF-OF-UT-UT-SP-SP-RP-RP-RP-P-P

            For the sake of keeping my spreadsheet organized, each bench will consist of four hitters and four pitchers.
            My draft strategy is mostly the same. My 2014 Draft Guidelines still apply (just ignore the specific player discussions), and the tips I gave last year don’t suck. With that said, let’s get 2016 Nerdfest underway! 



1-1 = Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Arizona Diamondbacks – Age = 28
            I can hear the outrage through my Ethernet cables. “WHERE THE HELL IS MIKE TROUT!?!”. Chill out people, we’ll get to him next.
            Goldschmidt has been a top-5 fantasy producer on a per-game basis each of the last three years. Furthermore, he’s coming off a season where he set career highs in batting average, OPS, walks, and steals. At 28 years old, he’s in his prime on a vastly improved Diamondbacks squad. It’s a no brainer for us to rank him above Trout, as while both have the ability to post 60 combined homers and steals Goldschmidt is producing that value at first base instead of the far deeper outfield pool.

1-2 = Mike Trout – OF – Los Angeles Angels – Age = 24
            Told you we’d get to Trout shortly. Trout is really good (that’s expert analysis!), but the lineup around him is what makes us pump the brakes. Other than an aging Albert Pujols, there isn’t a lot to like about the talent around Trout. Add in declining steals totals (they’ve decreased from 49 in 2012 down to 11 last year), and you have a recipe for slight disappointment if you draft or bid for him. Perhaps his steals will go up if the Angels need to play more small-ball to manufacture offense, but that’s a big if. Obviously we’re nitpicking the pre-emanate talent in MLB, but it’s small stuff that can put your team over the top.

1-3 = Bryce Harper – OF – Washington Nationals – Age = 23
            It feels like people were waiting for years for Bryce Harper to deliver a MVP level stat-line, but one needs to remember that he doesn’t turn 24 years old until October. Harper made massive leaps in virtually every offensive category, and barring injury, there is no reason to believe that won’t continue. His low stolen base output is the reason we don’t have him ranked higher, but those of you willing to punt that category or load up on cheap speed late in the draft shouldn’t hesitate to draft him first overall.

1-4 = Josh Donaldson – 3B – Toronto Blue Jays – Age = 30
            The 2015 AL MVP had an incredible first year north of the border, leading the league in both runs scored and runs driven in while eclipsing 40 dingers for the first time. We don’t forecast him matching his home run total from a year ago, but hitting in the middle of a bananas Blue Jay lineup will keep his runs and RBI totals and an elite level. He’s not quite in the same tier as the first three on this list, but Donaldson makes for a great consolation prize if you end up with the fourth pick.

1-5 = Manny Machado – 3B-SS – Baltimore Orioles – Age = 23
            After a disappointing 2014 campaign, Machado delivered a breakout 2015 that saw him post more combined homers and steals than any of the four players rated ahead of him on this list. Even more important to his real-life game was his willingness to take a walk. 70 walks isn’t an enormous number, but when you’re previous high was 29 that shows an improved understanding of the strike zone. Even scarier, he’s only 23 years old. Machado gets a bump in leagues where he is both third base and shortstop eligible, as his ability to fill two premium positions in a lineup is huge when constructing your roster. It’s worth at least five spots on our rankings.

1-6 = Nolan Arenado – 3B – Colorado Rockies – Age = 24
            Astute readers may notice a theme of extreme youth so far in this mock draft, and Arenado continues the trend (he turns 25 in April). He’s won three consecutive NL Gold Glove Awards (that’s not super fantasy relevant, but it is important in keeper leagues to know that Arenado will stick at third for several years), and last year led the senior circuit in both dingers and RBIs. When you remember that Carlos Gonzalez was oft-injured and Troy Tulowitzki was traded away last July, that makes Arenado’s production all the more impressive. We’re higher on him than most fantasy sites, but third baseman that can pop 40+ dingers don’t grow on trees anymore.

1-7 = Carlos Correa – SS – Houston Astros – Age = 21
            Correa has only been able to legally drink in the United States since last September, which is insane when you consider how valuable he was to the Astros a year ago. His statistical ceiling is as high as any player in MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL, so while picking him seventh is an overpay in redraft leagues, it’s worth it if he puts it all together.



1-8 = Clayton Kershaw – SP – Los Angeles Dodgers – Age = 28
            You’ll see Kershaw ranked as high as fourth on pre-season ranking lists, but even though his 301 strikeouts last year were insane, we can’t justify taking a pitcher that high when the pool of elite offensive talent is so shallow. We’d even have a hard time dedicating enough money in an auction to acquire his services.

1-9 = Kris Bryant – 3B-OF – Chicago Cubs – Age = 24
            The 2015 NL Rookie of the Year (when was the last time the two defending rookies of the year were ranked in the top-10 on a fantasy draft board? I’m guessing the answer to that question is never) is poised to take another step forward hitting in the middle of a loaded Cubs lineup for a full season. If he can cut down on his strikeout totals (he whiffed 199 times last year), Bryant producing top-5 value in 2016 is not out of the question.

1-10 = Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Miami Marlins – Age = 26
            Stanton is our first “risky” pick of the first round, but if he could somehow suit up for more than 150 games for the first time in his career, no one (not even Bryce Harper) has more power potential. He has the potential to be the number one fantasy asset when 2016 is all said and done, so if you have the chance to draft him this late in the first round of a real draft you should not hesitate.

1-11 = Anthony Rizzo – 1B – Chicago Cubs – Age = 26
            Rizzo posted 31 dingers and a surprising 17 steals (thanks Joe Maddon), so he’s kind of a poor man’s Paul Goldschmidt. I assure you that’s a compliment. Hitting squarely in the middle of a loaded Cubs lineup, he’s a dark horse contender to lead the NL in RBIs.

1-12 = Jose Altuve – 2B – Houston Astros – Age = 25
            Are the 15 home runs Altuve smacked likely to be matched in 2016? No, but you won’t care if that mean’s his stolen base total rises above 50 again. Our concern with him is his poor walk rate, but we’d be willing to make peace with that to snag one of the few elite second base options.