Week 13 NFL Picks

     For the second straight week we didn't have a ton of time for our NFL picks, but perhaps not overthinking it will be a blessing.

COLTS (-4) over Titans
BROWNS (-7) over Jaguars
Buccaneers (+7) over PANTHERS
Bears (-1) over VIKINGS
Cardinals (+3) over EAGLES
JETS (-2.5) over Dolphins
Patriots (-8.5) over TEXANS
Bills (-3.5) over Falcons
49ERS (-8) over Rams
CHIEFS (+6.5) over Broncos
CHARGERS (-1) over Bengals
Giants (-1.5) over REDSKINS
Saints (+5) over SEAHAWKS

Last Week = 7-7
Season = 88-80-7
Thursday = 2-1

Thanksgiving NFL Picks

            Normally our Thursday picks get relegated to the No Credentials Facebook page (while you think of it, do me a solid and like the page if youhave a moment), but we have to put in slightly more effort to acknowledge the Thanksgiving slate.

LIONS (-6.5) over Packers

            Detroit was peeking ahead when they put on a sloppy performance against Tampa Bay last week. They’ll feast on Matt Flynn.

COWBOYS (-9.5) over Raiders

            Whether they are facing a rusty Terrelle Pryor or some guy who’s name sounds like it should be a character on an awful NCIS spin-off show, Dallas should be able to deliver it’s first comfortable victory since dominating the Eagles over a month ago. Emphasis on should.

Steelers (+2.5) over RAVENS

            Over the course of the season, Ben Roethlisberger has outplayed Joe Flacco. That’s the difference maker for me.
 
            Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving everyone.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (11/22-11/24)

10. Derrick Rose Suffers a Meniscus Tear Against Portland
            The sad ballad of Derrick Rose continues, as he’s likely done for the season.

9. Green Bay And Minnesota Play Too a Draw

            Chances of this are greatly improved when Christian Ponder and Matt Flynn are the opposing quarterbacks, so this result shouldn’t of surprised anyone.

8. Cam Newton Leads Another 4^th Quarter Comeback

            Coming off an emotional home win on Monday Night Football, it would’ve been easy for the Panthers to fall asleep in Miami. They did for about 55 minutes, but Newton rallied them just in time.

7. New York Yankees Pay $85 Million For Brian McCann

            Because anytime you can fork over a ton of cash for a guy who netted 57 RBIs last year, you have to do it. I’d be all in favor of this deal if it were three fewer years and $69 million less.

6. Arizona Pummels Oregon

            For people against space-age football uniforms, they will be grateful that the Oregon Ducks are out of national championship contention.

5. Kansas City Loses Again
            The Chiefs defense was in shambles after losing top pass rushers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali to injury, and Phillip Rivers took full advantage. They could be looking at three straight losses after Denver visits Arrowhead next week.

4. Josh Gordon Goes Bonkers

            Gordon’s 14 catch, 237 yard, one TD performance wasn’t enough for Cleveland to stay close against Pittsburgh, but it was pretty awesome for all three fantasy teams owned by No Credentials. That was a 43-point day for folks playing in standard PPR leagues.

3. Cowboys Try to Choke, Eventually Defeat Giants

            The Cardiac Cowboys were at it again, but fortunately for all anti-Giants fans everywhere, they put New York’s postseason hopes on life support.
       
2. FCS Team Georgia Southern Demoralizes Florida Gators
            Florida’s season has been bad enough, but suffering their worst loss in school history will probably send Head Coach Will Muschamp to the unemployment line.

1. Muffed Punt Gives Patriots Overtime Victory Over Denver

            Sunday night’s wacky game probably had more to do with the brutal wind than anything else. New England is only a game out of the top seed in the AFC.

Week 12 NFL Picks

            No Credentials had an unexpected power outage this evening, so here’s an abbreviated posting of our NFL picks.

 

LIONS (-8.5) over Buccaneers

Jaguars (+10) over TEXANS

PACKERS (-5) over Vikings

CHIEFS (-5) over Chargers

Panthers (-5) over DOLPHINS

Steelers (+1) over BROWNS

RAMS (-1) over Bears

RAVENS (-3.5) over Jets

RAIDERS (+1) over Titans

CARDINALS (-2.5) over Colts

Cowboys (+2.5) over GIANTS

Broncos (-2.5) over PATRIOTS

49ers (-6.5) over REDSKINS

 

Last Week = 8-5-2

Season = 81-73-7
Thursday = 0-1

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (11/15-11/17)

10. Austin Dillon Wins Nationwide Title
            Sadly, no one other than his grandfather gave a shit about this accomplishment, as Dillon didn’t even win a race this year in a series dominated by Cup regulars.

9. Kobe Returns to Practice

            This development doesn’t mean the Black Mamba will be back on the court in a week, but it’s a great sign that one of the greatest players of the post-Jordan era will be back soon.

8. Georges St. Pierre “Beats” Johny Hendricks

            Rather than use a ton of expletives to describe my disdain for the judges of this fight (EDITORS NOTE: We had money on this fight), we’ll let Dana White do the talking.

 

7. USC Upsets Stanford
            It’s cool that Lane Kiffin is no longer involved with the USC program, because I feel like I can actually celebrate their successes again.

6. Indiana Pacers Finally Lose a Game

            More vital than that fact was the effectiveness of Derrick Rose and the Chicago Bulls. The 2011 MVP looked a little sluggish in the early parts of the season, but appears to be hitting his stride.

5. Steelers Show Life, Rally Against Detroit
            Believe it or not, Pittsburgh is only a game out of the sixth seed in the AFC.

4. Denver Dominates Kansas City

            Last night was a prime example of why you really can’t trust Alex Smith if you have aspirations for a Super Bowl run.

3. Chicago Bears Outlast Weather, Baltimore Ravens in Overtime

            It only made sense that a game delayed two hours by the threat of a tornado went into overtime.
       
2. Saints Capitalize on Late 49ers Miscues, Win 23-20
            A costly roughing the passer penalty (which maybe back in the day would’ve been legal, but not anymore) and a fair catch interference call ultimately ruined what had been an impressive effort by the underdog 49ers.

1. Jimmie Johnson Wins 6^th Sprint Cup

            Johnson did everything he had to do to secure a championship that officially opens the quest to equal Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt as the only drivers to ever win seven titles.

Week 11 NFL Picks

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
            When crap plays crap, take the points. Or in this case, point.

BUCCANEERS (+1) over Falcons

 

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills

            The Jets are the AFC’s version of the Dallas Cowboys (on one week, off the next). Pretty sad that I compared my favorite team to a club quarterbacked by Geno Smith.

BILLS (-1.5) over Jets

 

Detroit Lions @ Pittsburgh Steelers

            Detroit is legit, and Pittsburgh stinks.

Lions (-2.5) over STEELERS

 

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles

            Philadelphia still hasn’t won a home game in over a calendar year. RGIII could have some revenge in mind after Washington’s lackluster week one performance against the Eagles.

Redskins (+4) over EAGLES

 

Baltimore Ravens @ Chicago Bears

            I flipped a coin, and then I wasn’t happy with that outcome, then I thought about it some more, and then I decided to just take the points. Of any line No Credentials has ever picked, I can honestly say I have no idea how this game is going to turn out.

Ravens (+3) over BEARS

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals

            The mini-hype over the Browns has been kind of fun, but I think the Bengals put a stranglehold on the AFC North this week.

BENGALS (-6.5) over Browns

Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans           

            If Terrelle Pryor were suiting up, I’d be all in on the Raiders.

TEXANS (-9) over Raiders

 

Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars

            Jacksonville won their game last week. There won’t be another one the rest of the year.

Cardinals (-9) over JAGUARS

 

San Diego Chargers @ Miami Dolphins

            Another weird line, but we’ll take the points and bet against the first team in the history of the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE dealing with a bullying scandal.

Chargers (+2.5) over DOLPHINS

 

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks

            Percy Harvin’s return may spell doom for the rest of the NFC. That is, until he gets hurt in four weeks.

SEAHAWKS (-12.5) over Vikings

 

San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints

            San Francisco’s offense is pretty inept without Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree on the field, but I have a feeling their defense steps up and keeps this close.

49ers (+3.5) over SAINTS

 

Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants

            New York could barely take care of Oakland on their home turf last week. I don’t care if Green Bay is starting a dude off the street.

Packers (+5) over GIANTS

 

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

            Don’t bet against Peyton Manning at night. This high line doesn’t fool me.

BRONCOS (-7.5) over Chiefs

 

New England Patriots @ Carolina Panthers

            Carolina is legit. This line is a point and a half too low.

PANTHERS (-1.5) over Patriots

Last Week = 6-7-1

Season = 73-68-5

Thursday = 0-0-1

Making Peace With the 48

 

 

            Barring a dramatic amount of misfortune, Jimmie Johnson is going to win his sixth Sprint Cup this Sunday. No Credentials has spent a fair amount of time over the years complaining about his triumphs (he won the 2010 title shortly after this blog began, and this year’s Daytona 500) and celebrating his failures (we listed him being eliminated from championship contention as our best thing that happened during a weekend in 2011), so it makes sense that we come to terms with how great his decade in NASCAR’s top series has been.

With a Sixth Cup, He’s on the Mt. Rushmore of NASCAR Drivers

            I’ve always discounted the Chase era in terms of the value of the championship (Johnson wouldn’t have won under the old scoring system in 2007, 2008, or 2010, which for my money, was a harder feat to pull off), but there comes a point where you have to tip your cap. This win puts him ahead of David Pearson, and puts him alongside Richard Petty, Dale Earnhardt, and Jeff Gordon on the hypothetical NASCAR Mt. Rushmore.

Almost Every Year He’s in the Hunt for the Championship

            With the exception of 2002 (his rookie year) and 2011, Johnson has entered the final race of the season with a shot at winning the title. That’s ten out of twelve years (again The Chase makes that easier, but you’re picking nits if you discount it entirely). Richard Petty finished in the top three in points fifteen times in a two-decade span between the ’60s and ‘70s. From 1986 to 1995, Dale Earnhardt went into the final race of the year with either the championship already clinched or a mathematical chance at the title eight times. Jeff Gordon has never had a decade long stretch of championship contention (more on that later).

He’s Entering Rarified Air in Terms of Career Victories

            There’s always been focus on his championship totals, but it’s easy to forget that he’s won the eighth most races of all time. Jeff Gordon has only won 6 races since his 38^th birthday, but Petty and Earnhardt each enjoyed tremendous success as they approached their forties. Earnhardt racked up 42 of his 76 wins during the season he turned 38, while Richard Petty earned 36-checkered flags, including a modern record 13 victories in 1975. Taking the average of Petty and Earnhardt and adding that to Johnson’s win total, and that puts Jimmie over 100 wins when he calls it a career.

Johnson Excels in the Big Races

            About the only thing on Johnson’s NASCAR bucket list that is missing is a win during the Bristol night race (he won there in the spring of 2010 during the day race). He’s won at all styles of tracks (he can thank Marcos Ambrose for stalling his car under caution at Sonoma in 2010 for that), and even if the Chase tracks were rotated, would still have an edge over the competition.

Forget the Crew Chief…the Guy Can Drive

            Most Johnson critics will first point their finger (usually the middle one) at Chad Knaus, who is widely regarded as the greatest crew chief in NASCAR history. What they fail to realize is that great drivers have always had a point in their career where they had a noteworthy crew chief. Jeff Gordon is the prime example of this. Ray Evernham, who was the Chad Knaus of his day, led his dominant late ‘90s stretch. Once Evernham left for Dodge, Gordon never was the same. He only won the 2001 championship without Evernham. Knaus is great, but it’s Johnson’s exceptional car control that separates him from the rest of the field.

How Many More Championships Will He Win?

            Assuming he captures his sixth title Sunday, he’ll only need one more to match Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt for the most all time. Johnson doesn’t have the same mass appeal that Jeff Gordon has (which in my opinion, is the reason Gordon stopped being a dominant driver during the 2000s), so it’s not a stretch that the next decade of his career will turn out to be similar to Petty’s and Earnhardt’s. We’ll predict that he contends for five more championships, converting three of those chances into titles, finishing with a record 9 Sprint Cups.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (11/8-11/10)

10. Jimmie Johnson On the Verge of 6^th Sprint Cup Title
            Unless I’m too busy playing Madden this week, we’ll talk more about this in a couple of days.

9. Swift Kick to the Skull Earns Vitor Belfort Knockout of Dan Henderson

            Belfort was on fire from the get-go in this one, and has set himself up to earn a date with the winner of the Anderson Silva-Chris Weidman rematch.

8. 17-Year Old Erik Jones Wins Truck Race at Phoenix

            I’m pretty sure that when I was seventeen I was mostly focused on finding a person of age to purchase a 30-rack of Budweiser. Jones is the second person under 18 to win in one of NASCAR’s top three series this year, joining Chase Elliott.

7. Spurs Demoralize New York Knicks
            Even though New York hasn’t fielded a championship caliber team since I was in junior high school, I take great pleasure in the shortcomings of their team. I guess I’m just an asshole.

6. Saints Convert NFL Record 40 First Downs

            Sadly, my Cowboys only ran 43 plays en route to getting shellacked by 32 points.

5. Jeff Green Buzzer Beater Delivers Boston Shocking Win Over Heat
            There won’t be a lot of moments like this in 2013-14, so Celtics fans should cherish this one.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars Win a Game

            Shockingly, it still counts even though Tennessee was forced to play Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB for the majority of the game.
      
3. Ravens Survive a Bengals Hail Mary, Win in Overtime
            Baltimore’s field goal in overtime negated a Bengals Hail Mary at the buzzer that looked like it happened just like it was drawn up on a chalkboard.

2. Detroit Takes Control of NFC North

            Incredibly, the Lions have now swept the Bears and have a game lead over both Chicago and Green Bay. Even better, both of their division rivals will likely be starting Josh McCown and some guy named Scott Tolzien next week.

1. Panthers Prove They’re Legit, Win at San Francisco

            Carolina demolished four inferior opponents in a row, but grinding out a defensive struggle against the defending NFC champs is a big deal.

Week 10 NFL Picks

0-8 Jacksonville Jaguars @ 4-4 Tennessee Titans (-12.5)
            True story…Tennessee is undefeated against the spread when Jake Locker starts.

TITANS (-12.5) over Jaguars

 

4-5 Philadelphia Eagles @ 5-3 Green Bay Packers (-1)

            Based on our mid-season power rankings, Philadelphia has beaten the 22^nd, 23^rd, 29^th, and 31^st best teams in the NFL. Even without Rodgers, Green Bay has enough to pull out a win.

PACKERS (-1) over Eagles

 

3-6 Buffalo Bills @ 2-6 Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

            We’re happy to see E.J. Manuel back on the field, but Buffalo plays like shit on the road.

STEELERS (-3) over Bills

 

3-5 Oakland Raiders @ 2-6 New York Giants (-7.5)

            Feels weird giving up more than a touchdown on a 2-6 team, but when it’s against the Raiders I guess it’s justified.

GIANTS (-7.5) over Raiders

 

3-6 St. Louis Rams @ 6-2 Indianapolis Colts (-9.5)

            Chris Long and Robert Quinn will keep St. Louis in this game.

Rams (+9.5) over COLTS

 

8-1 Seattle Seahawks (-6) @ 2-6 Atlanta Falcons

            Atlanta doesn’t have the defense to take advantage of Seattle’s lackluster offensive line play.

Seahawks (-6) over FALCONS

 

6-3 Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) @ 3-5 Baltimore Ravens

            It’s official…the Ravens stink.

Bengals (-1.5) over RAVENS

 

5-3 Detroit Lions @ 5-3 Chicago Bears (Pick ‘em)

            Detroit lit up the Bears like a Christmas tree in their first meeting. We predict more of the same this Sunday.

Lions over BEARS

5-3 Carolina Panthers @ 6-2 San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

            It’s time to pump the brakes on the Carolina bandwagon a little bit.

49ERS (-6.5) over Panthers

 

2-6 Houston Texans @ 4-4 Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

            Don’t underestimate the power of a team honoring it’s coach dealing with a medical event.

Texans (+2.5) over CARDINALS

 

7-1 Denver Broncos (-7) @ 4-4 San Diego Chargers

            Ditto.

Broncos (-7) over CHARGERS

 

5-4 Dallas Cowboys @ 6-2 New Orleans Saints (-7)

            The combined margin of victory the last time these three teams have met has been nine points. We’re betting on another barnburner that Tony Romo gags away in the closing minutes.

Cowboys (+7) over SAINTS

 

4-4 Miami Dolphins (-3) @ 0-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

            Tampa has to win eventually. Playing a team dealing with the NFL’s first bullying crisis is as good a chance as any.

BUCCANEERS (+3) over Dolphins

 

Last Week = 7-5-1

Season = 67-61-4
Thursday Pick = 1-0

NFL Mid-Season Power Rankings

     Now that every team has at least played half of their schedule, let's rank all 32 of them in order of which team would be more likely to win on a neutral field over the second half of the season. Injuries are factored in (sorry Packer fans).

Rank	Team	Record	PT Diff.	Outlook
1	Broncos	7-1, 2nd in AFC West	+125	The most overwhelming offense in football will dominate the Chiefs in Week 11.
2	49ers	6-2, 2nd in NFC West	+73	No one is getting back better reinforcements from injury than San Francisco.
3	Seahawks	8-1, 1st in NFC West	+83	We'll have a better read on the Seahawks when they get their tackles back.
4	Saints	6-2, 1st in NFC South	+70	After a fast start, New Orleans only has a one game lead over Carolina.
5	Colts	6-2, 1st in AFC South	+59	Andrew Luck has the talent to overcome the loss of Reggie Wayne.
6	Patriots	7-2, 1st in AFC East	+59	If I felt confident in the health of Brady's receivers, I'd rank them higher.
7	Chiefs	9-0, 1st in AFC West	+104	The Cowboys are the only team K.C. has beat that's over .500.
8	Bengals	6-3, 1st in AFC North	+51	Can we get Giovanni Bernard 20 touches a game? That could push Cincy over the top.
9	Panthers	5-3, 2nd in NFC South	+98	A top-10 ranking will be justified if they give the 49ers a good game.
10	Lions	5-3, 1st in NFC North	+20	Unless Aaron Rodgers misses extended time, Detroit's defense will push them out of the playoffs.
11	Bears	5-3, 3rd in NFC North	+14	Josh McCown has done everything he can to keep the Bears afloat while Cutler has been out.
12	Cowboys	5-4, 1st in NFC East	+48	The schedule gets easier after their huge Sunday night game in New Orleans.
13	Packers	5-3, 2nd in NFC North	+47	Any question about how valuable Aaron Rodgers is after Seneca Wallace's performance last night?
14	Titans	4-4, 2nd in AFC South	+6	They'd have at least one more win if Jake Locker didn't get hurt.
15	Chargers	4-4, 3rd in AFC West	+18	Four combined games against Kansas City and Denver won't help their cause.
16	Eagles	4-5, 2nd in NFC East	-6	4-1 on the road, 0-4 at home. Doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
17	Browns	4-5, 2nd in AFC North	-25	No team has overachieved more than Cleveland this year.
18	Ravens	3-5, 3rd in AFC North	-4	The ineffectiveness of the Ravens ground game is really puzzling.
19	Cardinals	4-4, 3rd in NFC West	-14	They protect their home turf, but don't ask Carson Palmer to win on the road.
20	Dolphins	4-4, 3rd in AFC East	-13	Is a bizzarre bullying scandal capable of rallying a team together?
21	Jets	5-4, 2nd in AFC East	-62	Could be this year's version of last year's Colts team that improbably ends up over .500.
22	Redskins	3-5, 3rd in NFC East	-50	They were 3-5 last year at this time before making a miracle division winning run.
23	Giants	2-6, 4th in NFC East	-82	Has there ever been a scarier shitty team ever than the 2013 New York Giants?
24	Rams	3-6, 4th in NFC West	-40	At least St. Louis has one more year of getting Washington's first round pick to look forward too.
25	Falcons	2-6, 3rd in NFC South	-42	If any team other than Jacksonville should start tanking, it's this one.
26	Bills	3-6, 4th in AFC East	-47	E.J. Manuel coming back is reason for excitement in the greater Buffalo area.
27	Steelers	2-6, 4th in AFC North	-52	Sunday's shellacking in Foxborough should prove to everyone that the defense needs an overhaul.
28	Texans	2-6, 3rd in AFC South	-75	For nothing else, at least Houston can move on from the Matt Schaub era during the off-season.
29	Raiders	3-5, 4th in AFC West	-53	Terrelle Pryor has looked shockingly competent at times, but we're not sold on him long-term.
30	Vikings	1-7, 4th in NFC North	-66	Adrian Peterson sadly could go down as this generation's Earl Campbell.
31	Buccaneers	0-8, 4th in NFC South	-66	When Greg Schiano finally gets canned, at least he can say they took the Seahawks to OT.
32	Jaguars	0-8, 4th in AFC South	-178	Getting outscored by almost 100 points more than any other team tells you everything you need to know.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (11/1-11/3)

10. Justin Blackmon Suspended For Rest of 2013 Season
            I’m glad real life events don’t impact my Madden franchise.

9. Jimmie Johnson Dominates at Texas

            It might look like gloom and doom for the legions of 48-haters, but one must remember that Johnson also had a seven-point lead at this point in the standings last year over eventual champion Brad Keselowski.

8. Russell Westbrook Returns For the Thunder

            There’s no one happier about this development than Kevin Durant.

7. Nebraska Hits a Hail Mary as Time Expires Against Northwestern
            In Lawrence Phillips’ hey-day, the Cornhuskers would’ve been beating Northwestern by seventy points, but that’s a conversation for another day.

6. Brooklyn Nets Knock Off Miami in Home Debut

            A win on the first day of November will ultimately mean nothing in determining the NBA title, but at least the Nets displayed the necessary amount of chemistry to defeat the two-time defending champions. On a personal note, it’s really weird watching Pierce and Garnett in anything other than Celtics green.

5. Cowboys Need 90-Yard Drive to Beat the Third Worst Team in Football
            But hey, a win’s a win right?

4. Patriots Roll With Gronk and Amendola

            It’s a shame that these two guys will be lucky to be healthy for three more games together at the same time.
      
3. Red Sox Honor Boston Marathon Victims During World Series Parade
            Ultimately, the most lasting memory of the 2013 Red Sox will be David Ortiz declaring “This is our fucking city” the day after the marathon bomber was captured. It was fitting that the world champions stopped and paid an emotional tribute at the finish line.

2. Down 21-0, Seahawks Rally Against Winless Tampa Bay

            I was ready to unleash a 700-word rant about how I planned on ceasing my efforts to brainwash my son into becoming a Cowboys fan because they have been such a shitty team for 15 years and should be embarrassed about how they played against the Vikings, but then Seattle almost lost to one of the two winless teams in the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE at home.

1. The Pizza Man Delivers Seven Touchdown Passes

            For seriously fucked up fantasy football teams that were forced to call upon Nick Foles this week to cover a bye, your incompetence was rewarded.