Thursday, August 22, 2013

2013 AFC North Preview

         We turn our attention to the AFC North, a.k.a. the only division that might be worse than the AFC East.


4. Cleveland Browns

 

2012 Record = 5-11, fourth in AFC North
2013 Schedule = Dolphins, @ Ravens, @ Vikings, Bengals, Bills, Lions, @ Packers, @ Chiefs, Ravens, BYE, @ Bengals, Steelers, Jaguars, @ Patriots, Bears, @ Jets, @ Steelers

Franchise Players = RB Trent Richardson, LT Joe Thomas, C Alex Mack, CB Joe Haden
Supporting Cast = WR Josh Gordon, LG Jason Pinkston, DE Ahtyba Rubin, DT Phil Taylor, MLB D’Qwell Jackson, OLB Paul Kruger, SS T.J. Ward
Notable Rookies = OLB Barkevious Mingo (LSU, 1-6), CB Leon McFadden (San Diego St., 3-68)

Offensive Outlook = It feels like a waste of time talking about an offense who’s second year quarterback is 29-years old, but in the interest of maintaining continuity, we’ll do it anyway. Trent Richardson is the centerpiece of the offense, and with Norv Turner taking over as offensive coordinator, Richardson will be sure to see a massive workload. Injuries have already hit the offensive line, so that is a concern for Richardson’s overall production. Cleveland has an interesting (that’s a better adjective than inexperienced) group of receivers that bring different skill sets to the table. Josh Gordon established himself as a quality deep threat, and is the clear #1 receiver. Greg Little has shown flashes as a third down target, but doesn’t utilize his size enough in the red zone. Davone Bess was acquired in a trade with Miami and figures to be heavily targeted on third down. Travis Benjamin is another speedy receiver who can work out of the slot, and tight end Jordan Cameron is a deep fantasy sleeper. An average quarterback could utilize all of these weapons, but unfortunately Brandon Weeden is still on top of the depth chart. Weeden. Weeden has a big arm, but isn’t effective enough when he’s forced to his second or third read.
Defensive Outlook = Cleveland’s run defense was solid, but it’s secondary play was abysmal. Part of their issues have to do with Joe Haden missing five games last season (four of them because of a suspension). Haden has the skills to be a top-5 corner in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, but needs to make more plays. Paul Kruger (the leader in sacks for the Super Bowl champions last year) and rookie Barkevious Mingo have been brought in to bolster a pass rush that was virtually non-existent last year. Upping the quarterback pressure will go along way in improving the pass defense. 

Ceiling = 7-9 
Floor = 2-14
Prediction = 4-12
            Cleveland has assembled some nice young pieces, but until it has a solid quarterback prospect in the fold, there’s littler reason for optimism.
 

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

 

2012 Record = 8-8, third in AFC North
2013 Schedule = Titans, @ Bengals, Bears, @ Vikings, BYE, @ Jets, Ravens, @ Raiders, @ Patriots, Bills, Lions, @ Browns, @ Ravens, Dolphins, Bengals, @ Packers, Browns

Franchise Players = QB Ben Roethlisberger, C Maurkice Pouncey, SS Troy Polamalu
Supporting Cast = WR Antonio Brown, TE Heath Miller (on PUP list through Week 6), DE Brett Keisel, MLB Lawrence Timmons, MLB Larry Foote, OLD LaMarr Woodley, OLB Jason Worilds, CB Ike Taylor, FS Ryan Clark
Notable Rookies = OLB Jarvis Jones (Georgia, 1-17), RB Le’Veon Bell (Michigan St., 2-48), WR Markus Wheaton (Oregon St., 3-79), QB Landry Jones (Oklahoma, 4-115)

Offensive Outlook = On paper, Pittsburgh suffered the biggest free agent defection of the off-season with the loss of Mike Wallace. He was a field stretching threat that demanded attention on every snap. However, the Steelers do have some players with the potential to at least partially fill the void. Antonio Brown dealt with nagging injuries throughout the 2012 season, but a return to health could lead to Reggie Wayne like production for him. Emmanuel Sanders is slated to get the first crack to fill the deep threat role, but he hasn’t demonstrated in the past that he’s capable of doing it. Pittsburgh might eventually turn to third round pick Markus Wheaton, who on paper looks like a Mike Wallace clone. Pittsburgh’s running game was a mess that season, but it was hard to pinpoint if that had to with the runningbacks, the offensive line, or both groups. Second rounder Le’Veon Bell had a leg up to get the starting tailback gig, and he would’ve represented a massive upgrade over Jonathan Dwyer. Unfortunately, he’s now out for six to eight weeks. David DeCastro, last year’s first round pick, looks to rebound from a 2012 that was cut way to short by injury. He has the potential to form one of the best interior line duos with center Maurkice Pouncey. All of these adjustments will ultimately impact the effectiveness of Ben Roethlisberger. It’s unclear how much more of a beating Big Ben can take, so improved offensive line play is paramount to Pittsburgh’s chances of making the playoffs.
Defensive Outlook = Pittsburgh led the league in total defense last year, only allowing 275.8 yards per game. Unfortunately, the Steelers were unable to force turnovers. For the defense to return to the level of its last Super Bowl year in 2008-09, they will need to create game changing plays. The linebacking core is still the strength of the team, with arguably as much depth as any other team. LaMarr Woodley, Jason Worilds, and Jarvis Jones are three dynamic outside linebackers that can create havoc for opposing quarterbacks. If Cortez Allen continues to make strides, Pittsburgh will have the best cornerback duo in the division. They already have the best safety duo, even with Troy Polamalu losing a step. The biggest question mark for the Steelers defense is nose tackle. Casey Hampton has manned that position for years, but this year he will be replaced by Steve McClendon. McClendon doesn’t have the size that is normally required for a 3-4 end, so hopefully for Pittsburgh fans he’s the second coming of Jay Ratliff.

Ceiling = 12-4
Floor = 5-11
Prediction = 7-9
            Pittsburgh is in a state of transition, so it’s reasonable to expect growing pains. Look for another mediocre season before a return to Super Bowl contention in 2014.
 

2. Baltimore Ravens

 

2012 Record = 10-6, first in AFC North
2013 Schedule = @ Broncos, Browns, Texans, @ Bills, @ Dolphins, Packers, @ Steelers, BYE, @ Browns, Bengals, @ Bears, Jets, Steelers, Vikings, @ Lions, Patriots, @ Bengals

Franchise Players = QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, RG Marshal Yanda, DE Haloti Ngata, OLB Terrell Suggs
Supporting Cast = WR Torrey Smith, WR/KR Jacoby Jones, TE Dennis Pitta (Out for the season with a hip injury), RT Michael Oher, OLB Elvis Dumervil, CB Lardarius Webb, K Justin Tucker
Notable Rookies = SS Matt Elam (Florida, 1-32), OLB Arthur Brown (Kansas St., 2-56)

Offensive Outlook = It’s hard to remember a defending Super Bowl champion that lost so many key players, but at least offensively the most important ones return. Joe Flacco played like a Greek God of quarterbacking last postseason, but it’s hard to forecast that effort continuing into the regular season. He’s solid, but the offense is at its best when it’s centered on Ray Rice. Rice is still a dynamic player (view his epic fourth and 28 conversion last year against San Diego as proof) that can carry an offense. Bernard Pierce made great impressions in a reserve role, and could be in line for increased carries. With the losses of Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta, Torrey Smith will have to shoulder a heavier workload. He’s an elite route runner, which gives him a chance to transition from deep threat to primary receiver. Who ends up getting receptions other than Ray Rice or Smith is anyone’s guess.
Defensive Outlook = When’s the last time a defense lost two first ballot Hall of Famers in the same off-season? Sure Ray Lewis would probably have been suspended for steroids probably have lost a step if he came back, and Ed Reed has lost some of his range, but these were both emotional leaders of the Ravens defense for a long time. Add in the losses of Paul Kruger and Dannell Ellerbe, and you appear to have a dramatic drop in talent on the Ravens defense. Fortunately, the cupboard isn’t bare. Terrell Suggs should be back close to full strength, and Chris Canty and Marcus Spears have been added to bolster the run defense. Terrance Cody and Haloti Ngata are also still in the fold. Elvis Dumervil has been added and will fill the void left by Kruger. He’s a superior pass rusher, but isn’t the same all around defender. Jameel McClain will start in place of Ray Lewis. Physically there won’t be a drop off (throw out the deer antler fueled playoff run for Lewis), but it’ll hard to quantify what the drop off in leadership will do to the defense. Lardarius Webb will make a comeback from a torn ACL, which will give Baltimore a shutdown corner.

Ceiling = 13-3
Floor = 6-10
Prediction = 9-7
            It would be easy to predict a significant drop-off because of the players who won’t be returning, and just as easy to predict another Super Bowl contending run because they are the Ravens and that’s what they do. We’ll predict that they’ll scuffle a bit early before rounding into form by December.      
 

1. Cincinnati Bengals

 

2012 Record = 10-6, second in AFC North 

2013 Schedule = @ Bears, Steelers, Packers, @ Browns, Patriots, @ Bills, @ Lions, Jets, @ Dolphins, @ Ravens, Browns, BYE, @ Chargers, Colts, @ Steelers, Vikings, Ravens

Franchise Players = WR A.J. Green, LT Andrew Whitworth, DT Geno Atkins
Supporting Cast = QB Andy Dalton, RB Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis, TE Jermaine Gresham, RG Kevin Zeitler, DT Domata Peko, DE Michael Johnson, MLB Rey Maualuga, OLB James Harrison, OLB Vontaze Burfict, CB Leon Hall, FS Reggie Nelson, P Kevin Huber
Notable Rookies = TE Tyler Eifert (Notre Dame, 1-21), RB Giovani Bernard (North Carolina, 2-37), DE Margus Hunt (Southern Methodist, 2-53)

Offensive Outlook = We’re pretty sure the Cincinnati Bengals are the first team since the merger to make the playoffs two straight seasons with a redheaded quarterback. Unfortunately, each playoff appearance ended with a beating in Houston. Andy Dalton has chemistry with A.J. Green (it would be hard for any NFL caliber quarterback to not be successful throwing the ball to him), but he hasn’t been effective enough when he’s forced to his second or third read. Green is a top-5 wide receiver who demands double coverage on every play. The Bengals attempted to ease the pressure on Green by adding Tyler Eifert in the first round. Along with Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati will now have the best tight end duo in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. “The Firm” is still penciled in as the starting runningback, but it will be hard for Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis to not cede carries to talented rookie Giovani Bernard. If Bernard gets enough touches, he’s a solid bet for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Much like the rest of the offense (with the exception of Green), the offensive line is average. 
Defensive Outlook = There weren’t many defenses stronger down the stretch last season than the one employed by Cincinnati. Including their playoff loss to Houston, Cincinnati didn’t allow more than 20 points over their final nine games. Defensive tackle Geno Atkins was at the center of it, generating 12.5 sacks and providing stout run defense. Domata Peko and Michael Johnson were fantastic complimentary pieces to Atkins along the defensive line. Cincinnati struck gold last season with undrafted free agent Vontaze Burfict, who shockingly led the Bengals in tackles a season ago. The secondary will get a boost from having a fully healthy Leon Hall at corner from the start of Week 1. He was recovering from an ACL tear and wasn’t playing up to his usual standards until the final month of the season.

Ceiling = 14-2
Floor = 8-8
Prediction = 11-5
            We’re counting on a breakout from Bernard, and a consistent season of top-5 defense. The Bengals mediocre quarterback won’t bite them in the ass until the playoffs.
 

Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC South

Friday, August 16, 2013

2013 NFC South Preview

            Our fourth division preview brings us to the NFC South, which is full of team's who will have inflated win totals thanks to playing the putrid AFC East.

 
4. Carolina Panthers

 

2012 Record = 7-9, third in NFC South
2013 Schedule = Seahawks, @ Bills, Giants, BYE, @ Cardinals, @ Vikings, Rams, @ Buccaneers, Falcons, @ 49ers, Patriots, @ Dolphins, Buccaneers, @ Saints, Jets, Saints, @ Falcons

Franchise Players = QB Cam Newton, MLB Luke Kuechly
Supporting Cast = RB Johnathan Stewart, RB DeAngelo Williams, WR Steve Smith, TE Greg Olsen, LT Jordan Gross, C Ryan Kalil, DE Greg Hardy, DE Charles Johnson, OLB Jon Beason
Notable Rookies = DT Star Lotulelei (Utah, 1-14), DT Kawann Short (Purdue, 2-44), RB Kenjon Barner (Oregon, 6-182)

Offensive Outlook = Carolina brings back virtually the same offense it has had for the past two seasons. Cam Newton started out slow last season, but caught fire in the second half to post numbers similar to his rookie season. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are arguably the most talented running back duo in the league, but often were forgotten assets. Getting these guys a combined 30 carries a game would go a long way in balancing the offense. Steve Smith is still the only credible wide receiver Carolina has to offer (where oh where is Muhsin Muhammad?), but at least the Panthers have a solid tight end. Greg Olsen had the most productive year a tight end has ever had for the Panthers (somehow Wesley Walls never cracked 1,000 yards back in the day), and is a steady receiver for Newton to target on third down. Carolina’s offensive line was ravaged by injury last season, with the loss of Ryan Kalil hurting the most.
Defensive Outlook = Carolina made great strides defensively last season, and the catalyst was Luke Kuechly. Kuechly looks like a player that can be a top-5 middle linebacker for the better part of the next decade. Jon Beason is capable of playing at a Pro Bowl level, but has only suited up for five games in the last 32 games. Even 10 games out of him will be a lift for the defense. Defensive ends Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy were a menace for opposing tackles, Carolina used their first two draft picks on defensive tackles, with first round pick Star Lotulelei having the chance to be the game changing defensive tackle the Panthers have never had. The secondary is a major concern, as it appears that it’s an open competition to see who starts at corner and both safety spots.

Ceiling = 10-6 – They did win five of their last six last season, so double digit wins isn’t impossible.
Floor = 2-14 – Poor offensive line play combined with awful secondary play could be the perfect storm for an awful season.
Prediction = 7-9
            It’s boring to predict the same win total as last year, but there wasn’t enough roster improvement to suggest a serious increase in victories will occur. Carolina won’t take off until they finally can Head Coach Ron Rivera.
 

3. New Orleans Saints

 


2012 Record = 7-9, second in NFC South
2013 Schedule = Falcons, @ Buccaneers, Cardinals, Dolphins, @ Bears, @ Patriots, BYE, Bills, @ Jets, Cowboys, 49ers, @ Falcons, @ Seahawks, Panthers, @ Rams, @ Panthers, Buccaneers

Franchise Players = QB Drew Brees, WR Marques Colston, TE Jimmy Graham, RG Jahri Evans
Supporting Cast = RB Mark Ingram, RB Darren Sproles, WR Lance Moore, LG Ben Grubbs, C
Brian de la Puente, DE Cameron Jordan, MLB Curtis Lofton, P Thomas Morstead
Notable Rookies = FS Kenny Vaccaro (Texas, 1-15), DT Johnathan Jenkins (Georgia, 3-82)

Offensive Outlook = The only reason the Saints won seven games last year was because of the raw talent they have on offense. Drew Brees wasn’t as accurate as he was in previous years, but that had more to do with the Saints playing from behind more often than usual. He’s still a top-5 quarterback in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. It’s likely that this is the last year Mark Ingram gets a chance to demonstrate he can be a feature back. Pierre Thomas is still lurking, but at least Chris Ivory has been shipped to New York. Darren Sproles will handle the receiving chores out of the backfield, and will have a chance at catching 100 passes this year. Jimmy Graham is the #1 receiving threat, and is the most dynamic tight end in the NFC. Marques Colston isn’t explosive, but there aren’t many other wide receivers more reliable on third down. Lance Moore generated 1,000+ yards for the first time in his career thanks to an unusual spike in his average yards per catch. New Orleans will need a deep threat to emerge. Nick Toon, Joe Morgan (not the senile Hall of Fame second baseman), or rookie Kenny Stills are the candidates to fill that role.

Defensive Outlook = Only three times did the Saints allow less than 20 points last season. Seven times, 30+ points were dropped on them. Rob Ryan has been hired, and is switching the Saints from a 4-3 to a 3-4 base defense. Cameron Jordan might be the player most impacted by this switch, as he’ll have a hard time getting to the quarterback working as a 3-4 defensive end. The linebacking core is the strength of the defense, with Victor Butler a potential impact player as a pass rushing outside linebacker but they will have to do without Victor Butler, who's knee exploded during training camp. New Orleans’ secondary was miserable, and things don’t look that much better this year. Kenny Vaccaro does have a chance to make an impact as a versatile, do-it-all safety.

 

Ceiling = 11-5 – Is a head coach worth four wins? We’ll find out this year when Sean Payton returns.
Floor = 5-11 – The defense still sucks. A lot.
Prediction = 8-8
            If Sean Payton was a returning shutdown cornerback, I might pencil New Orleans in for a division title. The defense isn’t good enough for New Orleans to make a serious Super Bowl run.
 

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

2012 Record = 7-9, fourth in NFC South
2013 Schedule = @ Jets, Saints, @ Patriots, Cardinals, BYE, Eagles, @ Falcons, Panthers, @ Seahawks, Dolphins, Falcons, @ Lions, @ Panthers, Bills, 49ers, @ Rams, @ Saints

Franchise Players = RB Doug Martin, WR Vincent Jackson, DT Gerald McCoy, CB Darrelle Revis
Supporting Cast = QB Josh Freeman, WR Mike Williams, LT Donald Penn, LG Carl Nicks, RG Davin Joseph, MLB Mason Foster, OLB Lavonte David, FS Dashon Goldson, SS Mark Barron
Notable Rookies = CB Johnthan Banks (Mississippi St., 2-43), QB Mike Glennon (N.C. State, 3-73)

Offensive Outlook = Tampa Bay was in the thick of the NFC playoff race before Josh Freeman drove the Buccaneers off a cliff. The Bucs lost five of their last six games (their only win in that stretch was in the season finale against the Falcons, who had already clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs), and Freeman’s inaccuracy had a lot to do with it. He put up a 6-10 touchdown to interception ratio in the final six games (as opposed to 21-7 in the first ten), and only completed 54.8% of his passes for the season. A return to his 2010 form is vital if Tampa Bay wants to return to the playoffs. Doug Martin demonstrated in his rookie year that he is more than able to shoulder a full-time workload. Tampa’s inability to consistently throw the football was the only reason for Martin’s dive in late season productivity. Vincent Jackson was the rare free agent signing that paid immediate dividends, as set career highs for receptions and receiving yards. His presence on the field also opened up space for Mike Williams to operate. The greatest unknown about the Buccaneers is how they will perform if their starting guards stay healthy. Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph are both capable of being franchise players, but must prove they can return to form after having their 2012 campaigns ruined by injury.
Defensive Outlook = The Buccaneers had the worst pass defense in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE last season, and they were aggressive in fixing that weakness. It was a gamble to ship out draft picks for Darrelle Revis, but if he comes back at a level close to his pre-injury form, it will be worth it. He’s the rare corner that even in today’s pass-happy NFL can still take away an opposing team’s top receiver. Ex-49er Dashon Goldson was also brought in to solidify the safety core. A second year leap in performance from Mark Barron will give Tampa Bay a fully revamped secondary. Tampa did lead the NFL in run defense, but some of that success is directly related to how bad the pass coverage was. Gerald McCoy was healthy for a full season for the first time, and parlayed that into a Pro Bowl berth. The Buccaneers did lose fellow defensive tackle Roy Miller, so someone will have to step up so McCoy doesn’t end up facing constant double teams. Although not as publicly praised, Lavonte David’s rookie year wasn’t far off of Doug Martin’s in terms of overall production. He paired nicely with Mason Foster last season to stuff the running game.

Ceiling = 13-3 – I already said it earlier, but it bears repeating. If Josh Freeman finds consistency, this team can challenge the Falcons.
Floor = 3-13 – A dismal season could occur if Freeman is terrible and Darrelle Revis isn’t the shutdown corner the Buccaneers paid for.
Prediction = 9-7
            I’m not sold on Freeman, but there’s enough talent here for the team to finish above .500.
 

1. Atlanta Falcons

 

2012 Record = 13-3, first in NFC South, lost NFC Championship Game
2013 Schedule = @ Saints, Rams, @ Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, BYE, Buccaneers, @ Cardinals, @ Panthers, Seahawks, @ Buccaneers, Saints, @ Bills, @ Packers, Redskins, @ 49ers, Panthers

Franchise Players = QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones, WR Roddy White, TE Tony Gonzalez
Supporting Cast = RB Steven Jackson, LT Sam Baker, DE Osi Umenyiora, MLB Akeem Dent, OLB Sean Witherspoon, CB Asante Samuel, FS Thomas DeCoud, SS William Moore, K Matt Bryant
Notable Rookies = CB Desmond Trufant (Washington, 1-22), CB Robert Alford (Southeastern Louisiana, 2-60)

Offensive Outlook = Thanks to Atlanta convincing Tony Gonzalez to return for one more season, Matt Ryan will have all three of his elite receivers back in 2013. Julio Jones and Roddy White are the best wide receiver duo in the league (think of them as a modern day Randy Moss and Cris Carter). Jones is the more athletic of the two, but White tends to be targeted the most when the Falcons need to move the chains. Gonzalez is still a productive player in his seventeenth season who excels in the red zone. Steven Jackson was signed to replace Michael Turner, and should be an upgrade for the Falcons at runningback. Jackson is a significantly better receiver than Turner, and should be able to cash in some short yardage touchdowns. Jacquizz Rodgers is a solid change of pace back who will also see consistent touches. The offensive line is the biggest question mark for the Falcons. Two of their starters from a year ago are gone, and they do not have a dominant offensive lineman at any position. Sam Baker is the steadiest, but isn’t an elite run blocker.
Defensive Outlook = Atlanta was a perfect example of how a team should play a “bend-don’t-break” defense. They didn’t stop the run or sack the quarterback enough, but they had outstanding secondary play. Safeties Thomas DeCoud and William Moore emerged as elite playmakers, and the Falcons still have elite ball hawk Asante Samuel. Rookie Desmond Trufant will likely start opposite of Samuel, which is a risk when you’re talking about a team with Super Bowl aspirations. 66-year old Osi Umenyiora has been brought in to replace John Abraham, which is asking a lot. It’s hard to see where quarterback pressure is going to come from for the Falcons.

Ceiling = 13-3 – A pass rush will have to come out of nowhere for Atlanta to match last season’s win total.
Floor = 9-7 – Short of Matt Ryan’s knee exploding, it’s hard to see how Atlanta can lose eight games (they can thank playing the pathetic AFC East for that).
Prediction = 11-5
            Of the NFC South teams, Atlanta is the most complete, but come playoff time their mediocre offensive line and defense will rear its ugly head when they face the other elite teams in the NFC.
 

Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC East

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

2013 AFC South Preview

          Our third division tour takes us to the AFC South, which if I was lazy I could probably cut and paste last year's preview and pass it off as this years.


4. Jacksonville Jaguars

 

2012 Record = 2-14, fourth in AFC South
2013 Schedule = Chiefs, @ Raiders, @ Seahawks, Colts, @ Rams, @ Broncos, Chargers, 49ers, BYE, @ Titans, Cardinals, @ Texans, @ Browns, Texans, Bills, Titans, @ Colts

Franchise Players = RB Maurice Jones-Drew, LT Eugene Monroe
Supporting Cast = WR Cecil Shorts, WR Justin Blackmon (suspended first four games), TE Mercedes Lewis, C Brad Meester, RG Uche Nwaneri, MLB Paul Posluszny
Notable Rookies = RT Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M, 1-2), SS Jonathan Cyprien (Florida International, 2-33), QB-WR Denard Robinson (Michigan, 5-135)

Offensive Outlook = Mired by the worst quarterbacking situation in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, it’s easy to miss that Jacksonville has legitimate skill position players. Maurice Jones-Drew is the most notable Jaguar, and for the first time, will be able to hit unrestricted free agency after the season (can you say potential fantasy gold in the second or third round?). M.J.D. has the benefit of running behind one of the league’s most underrated offensive lines. Eugene Monroe is a top-10 or 15 left tackle, and second overall pick Luke Joeckel will solidify the right side. Cecil Shorts came out of nowhere to deliver excellent production (regardless of which shitty quarterback was throwing to him) before multiple concussions ended his season early. Justin Blackmon exploded when Chad Henne entered the lineup, but thanks to another bout of immaturity, will miss the first four games of the year. When he returns Jacksonville will have one of the best wide receiver duo in the league. Mercedes Lewis has never duplicated his 2010 season, but is that his fault or the quarterbacks? Ultimately, that’s the restrictor plate (NASCAR term) for the Jaguars offense. Blaine Gabbert has been comically awful, and at times it looks like he’s seeing dead people in the pocket. Chad Henne is capable of moving the offense up and down the field, but is extremely turnover prone. For fantasy purposes, Henne at least would elevate the value of the skill position players, but the new Jaguars management team has to see if there’s anything worth salvaging with Gabbert (he is after all, only 23 years old).  
Defensive Outlook = J.J. Watt had a historic 2012, but it’s still inexcusable that he had a half sack more than the Jacksonville Jaguars did. Paul Posluszny was the only steady performer on a defense that never sniffed the quarterback, couldn’t cover receivers, and was consistently worn down by the run. Jason Babin did provide a spark when he was claimed off waivers four the final four weeks of 2012, and Roy Miller (who was a steady backup for Tampa Bay) is capable of anchoring the middle of the line. Head Coach Gus Bradley, who ran a press coverage scheme as a defensive coordinator in Seattle, will have a hard time implementing the same system in Jacksonville. They spent five draft picks on defensive backs, so look for the Jaguars to have an open competition to see who can handle heavy man-coverage assignments.

Ceiling = 7-9 – It sounds crazy to say there’s a chance that Jacksonville won’t lose double-digit games (mostly because it is), but if you get the combination of a 2011 Ryan Fitzpatrick-esque season by Chad Henne and a massive contract season by Maurice Jones-Drew, it could happen.
Floor = 1-15 – There’s no other team in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE that has a higher probability of only winning one game.
Prediction = 3-13
            The offensive line is good enough that Jacksonville will be able to grind out a couple of wins, but it’s in their best interest not to win too many. Two more years of high draft picks could bring Jacksonville back to a playoff level.
 

3. Indianapolis Colts

 

2012 Record = 11-5, second in AFC South
2013 Schedule = Raiders, Dolphins, @ 49ers, @ Jaguars, Seahawks, @ Chargers, Broncos, BYE, @ Texans, Rams, @ Titans, @ Cardinals, Titans, @ Bengals, Texans, @ Chiefs, Jaguars

Franchise Players = QB Andrew Luck, WR Reggie Wayne
Supporting Cast = RB Vick Ballard, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WR T.Y. Hilton, TE Coby Fleener, TE Dwayne Allen, LT Anthony Castonzo, MLB Jerrell Freeman, OLB Robert Mathis, CB Vontae Davis, FS Antoine Bethea, SS LaRon Landry
Notable Rookies = DE Bjoern Werner (Florida St., 1-24), LG Hugh Thornton (Illinois, 3-86)

Offensive Outlook = Mostly out of necessity, Andrew Luck got the living shit kicked out of him his first season. The majority of his passes were low percentage, and he was constantly dealing with pressure. Reunited with his offensive coordinator from Stanford, look for a quicker hitting offense that will be much more efficient. Ahmad Bradshaw was brought in late in the off-season, and will form a solid 1-2 punch with Vick Ballard. Reggie Wayne looked much more like he did when he was catching passes from Peyton Manning than he did when he was stuck with Curtis Painter in 2011. He’s still a legitimate #1 receiver who is the focal point of the offense. T.Y. Hilton was a DeSean Jackson-like home run threat that was only limited by faulty hands last season. An improvement in that department might vault him over 1,000 yards. Darrius Heyward-Bey was brought in on a one-year deal, which could pay huge dividends. Escaping the chaos of the Oakland Raiders gives Heyward-Bey a chance to reach his potential. The true Achilles heal of this unit is the offensive line. Anthony Castonzo was their only reliable blocker last season. Rookies Hugh Thornton and Khaled Holmes could be given a chance to start early in their careers. 
Defensive Outlook = You can read any number of Colts related stories on the web right now saying they are candidates for regression, and the defense is the reason why. The Colts were –30 in point differential (which means the 11 wins they netted last season were statistically ridiculous), with the defense consistently getting roasted. Andrew Luck had to pull off seven comeback victories to bail the club out. Indianapolis aggressively spent this off-season to improve their 26th ranked defense, with LaRon Landry being the biggest catch. Landry played 16 games for the first time in four years, and if healthy, is a game changing player in the secondary. He will form a dynamic safety duo with Antoine Bethea. Vontae Davis was awful initially, but by seasons end looked like the lockdown corner he was in Miami. Indianapolis needs to find someone other than Robert Mathis who can consistently pressure the quarterback. Rookie Bjoern Werner could be that player.

Ceiling = 12-4 – Indianapolis earned a #1 seed in the AFC in Peyton Manning’s second year. Luck could duplicate that feat.
Floor = 3-13 – Luck also could get beat up again thanks to a defense that puts him behind on a consistent basis.
Prediction = 6-10
            The Colts were fun last year, but eventually logic and reason will catch up to them. The offensive line is still one or two pieces away from being reliable, and barring a major improvement by the front seven, the defense will still be suspect. Andrew Luck will have a great season, but we don’t forecast the Colts making a second straight playoff appearance.
 

2. Tennessee Titans

 

2012 Record = 6-10
2013 Schedule = @ Steelers, @ Texans, Chargers, Jets, Chiefs, @ Seahawks, 49ers, BYE, @ Rams, Jaguars, Colts, @ Raiders, @ Colts, @ Broncos, Cardinals, @ Jaguars, Texans

Franchise Players = RB Chris Johnson, LG Andy Levitre
Supporting Cast = QB Jake Locker, WR Kenny Britt, WR Kendall Wright, TE Delanie Walker, LT Michael Roos, C Fernando Velasco, DE Derrick Morgan, OLB Akeem Ayers, CB Jason McCourty, SS Bernard Pollard, SS George Wilson, KR Darius Reynaud
Notable Rookies = RG Chance Warmack (Alabama, 1-10), WR Justin Hunter (Tennessee, 2-34)

Offensive Outlook = For all of the people who threw dirt on him last season, Chris Johnson actually had a pretty decent season. 1243 rushing yards, a 4.5 average per carry, 41 receptions, and seven total touchdowns isn’t bad when you consider how poor the offensive line play for Tennessee was. No one will appreciate the acquisitions of guards Andy Levitre and Chance Warmack more than Johnson. Levitre was dominant for Buffalo, and will fit nicely between returning starters Michael Roos and Fernando Velasco. Some experts believed that Warmack was the best prospect at guard in a quarter century. Tennessee will have tremendous flexibility with two quick-footed pulling guards. Jake Locker is the next one to benefit from the o-line upgrades, as he often reacted poorly when faced with pressure. Locker lost half of the 2012 season to injury, and wasn’t as productive in the games he played after coming back than he was before dislocating his shoulder. This will be the year we find out if Locker is the Titans answer at quarterback. Tennessee has an intriguing core of wide receivers that all have the chance of being productive if given the opportunity. Kenny Britt hasn’t been worth the headaches he causes off the field, but if there was ever a year for him to keep his head on straight, it’s this one (he’s an unrestricted free agent after the season). Kendall Wright tied for the rookie lead in receptions last season, and was surprisingly reliable on third down.
Defensive Outlook = Similar to Indianapolis, the Titans defense was atrocious last season. They surrendered 30+ points in six of their first seven games, and twice had 50+ dropped on them. Expanded blitz packages stopped the bleeding a bit in the second half, but this is still a group with significant holes. Derrick Morgan finally performed well enough to not be considered a bust, but it would be a huge lift for the defense if he could lift his sack totals into the double digits. Akeem Ayers made huge strides in 2012, playing at his best when he was blitzing. The secondary was mostly terrible, but Jason McCourty at least finished the year on a high note. Bernard Pollard is way more effective when he gets to destroy members of the New England Patriots, but unfortunately for the Titans they don’t have to face Tom Brady this year.

Ceiling = 12-4 – Only attainable if the defense maintains it’s second half performance from a year ago.
Floor = 4-12 – The defense could also give up 35 points a game.
Prediction = 9-7
            If I were building an NFL team, after a franchise quarterback, the next thing I would value the most is a dominant offensive line. Tennessee looks to have the makings of that. Expect a big Chris Johnson year, a solid season from Jake Locker, and potentially a wild-card berth for the Titans.
 

1. Houston Texans

 

2012 Record = 12-4, first in AFC South
2013 Schedule = @ Chargers, Titans, @ Ravens, Seahawks, @ 49ers, Rams, @ Chiefs, BYE, Colts, @ Cardinals, Raiders, Jaguars, Patriots, @ Jaguars, @ Colts, Broncos, @ Titans

Franchise Players = RB Arian Foster, WR Andre Johnson, LT Duane Brown, C Chris Myers, DE J.J. Watt, MLB Brian Cushing

Supporting Cast = QB Matt Schaub, TE Owen Daniels, LG Wade Smith, DE Antonio Smith, OLB Brooks Reed, CB Johnathan Joseph, CB Kareem Jackson, FS Ed Reed, SS Danieal Manning
Notable Rookies = WR DeAndre Hopkins (Clemson, 1-27), FS D.J. Swearinger (South Carolina, 2-57)

Offensive Outlook = Houston looked like the most dominant team in the league until the calendar hit December. A blowout loss at New England started a stretch where they lost three of their last four to blow a first round bye in the playoffs, before eventually getting destroyed again by the Patriots in the Divisional Round. Matt Schaub shouldered most of the blame for the late season dive, but poor play from the right side of the offensive line also contributed. Arian Foster produced another double-digit touchdown season, but he suffered an alarming drop in his average yards per carry. If Ben Tate returns to his 2011 form, Houston again will have the benefit of a dynamite one-two punch. Andre Johnson might not have the explosiveness he had five years ago, but he’s still a dominant #1 receiver. Rookie DeAndre Hopkins had an excellent pre-season debut, which gives some hope that they finally will have a legitimate second wide receiver. Owen Daniels is still a reliable third down option, and has shown no signs of slowing down. Duane Brown and Chris Myers anchor one of the league’s best offensive lines. 
Defensive Outlook = It’s hard not to be one of the league’s best defenses when you are getting the production the Texans got out of J.J. Watt last season. 20.5 sacks as a 3-4 defensive end is ridiculous (for those not informed, outside linebackers are usually the top pass rushers in a 3-4. Players playing the position Watt normally lines up at are normally dedicated to stopping the run). He’s a transcendent player that gives Houston defensive coordinator Wade Phillips tons of flexibility. Antonio Smith was the main beneficiary of Watt’s destructiveness, as he rarely if ever saw double teams. The loss of Brian Cushing in Week 5 dramatically reduced the effectiveness of the Texans’ run defense. A return to full health gives Houston the chance to field the top defense in the league. The secondary was solid for the most part, but was exposed when Houston’s pass rush didn’t get to the quarterback (see both games against New England last season). Adding Ed Reed gives the Texans a respected veteran who knows what it takes for a team to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

Ceiling = 14-2 – The defense does have a chance to be vastly superior to any other teams D.
Floor = 8-8 – It would take an epically incompetent Matt Schaub performance, plus an injury or two along the offensive line for the Texans to fall to .500.
Prediction = 10-6
            On paper they are still vastly superior to the rest of the division, but catching the NFC West isn’t the walk in the park it was three years ago. That makes the difference between the Texans having a chance at a first round bye or settling for a third or fourth seed.


Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC South

Saturday, August 10, 2013

2013 NFC East Preview

         Our second division preview discusses the division closest to the heart of No Credentials. Each team has a division title in each of the last four years, a fact no other division can claim.


4. Philadelphia Eagles

 

2012 Record = 4-12, fourth in NFC East
2013 Schedule = @ Redskins, Chargers, Chiefs, @ Broncos, @ Giants, @ Buccaneers, Cowboys, Giants, @ Raiders, @ Packers, Redskins, BYE, Cardinals, Lions, @ Vikings, Bears, @ Cowboys

Franchise Players = RB LeSean McCoy, LG Evan Mathis
Supporting Cast = QB Michael Vick, WR DeSean Jackson, WR Jeremy Maclin (out for year, torn ACL), TE Brent Celek, LT Jason Peters, RG Todd Herremans, DT Fletcher Cox, OLB Conner Barwin, OLB Brandon Graham, MLB DeMeco Ryans, OLB Trent Cole
Notable Rookies = RT Lane Johnson (Oklahoma, 1-4), TE Zach Ertz (Stanford, 2-35), QB Matt Barkley (USC, 4-98)

Offensive Outlook = I’d like to make this the 52,928,393rd page on the Internet that says the Philadelphia Eagles will play fast. If that translates to victories or not is questionable. A quick hitting offense will go along way in keeping Michael Vick (No Credentials has been wrong before, but we don’t see Nick “the Pizza Delivery Man” Foles or Matt Barkley winning the starting gig) on the field, as will the return of a healthy Jason Peters. If Lane Johnson catches on quickly, Philadelphia will have its best pair of offensive tackles since Jon Runyan and Tra Thomas. Regardless of the offense’s effectiveness, LeSean McCoy should make a return to his elite 2011 form after a concussion-riddled season last year. Chip Kelly ran the ball a ton at Oregon, so there’s no reason to expect he’ll abandon it in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. Bryce Brown also has a chance to provide value if Philly commits to 30 carries a game. The passing attack took a huge hit with the loss of Maclin. DeSean Jackson is still around, and could set a career high in receptions if he is utilized on quick screens. Arrelious Benn has the size and speed to fill Maclin’s shoes, but never produced at an elite level during his time in Tampa Bay.  
Defensive Outlook = The Eagles are making a switch to a 3-4 base defense, which unfortunately they do not have the personal for. DeMeco Ryans played in the 3-4 at Houston, but other than that there’s a bunch of square pegs that need to fit into round holes. Asking Trent Cole to play linebacker is similar to signing Adam Sandler up to play Gandhi, as he brings virtually no coverage or run stopping skills to the table. Philadelphia blew up their secondary, which if new safeties Kenny Phillips and Patrick Chung stay healthy, will be an improvement.  

Ceiling = 10-6 – Vick needs to stay on the field for ten games and not suck. 0.002% chance this happens.
Floor = 2-14 – “Barkley drops back to pass, fires…INTERCEPTED!”
Prediction = 3-13
            They will be entertaining, and two of their wins will probably come against the Cowboys, but the lack of defensive talent will be the undoing of the Eagles. Sucking probably isn’t a terrible thing, as they’ll have a great chance to land a franchise quarterback in next year’s draft.
 

3. Washington Redskins

 

2012 Record = 10-6, first in NFC East
2013 Schedule = Eagles, @ Packers, Lions, @ Raiders, BYE, @ Cowboys, Bears, @ Broncos, Chargers, @ Vikings, @ Eagles, 49ers, Giants, Chiefs, @ Falcons, Cowboys, @ Giants

Franchise Players = QB Robert Griffin III, RB Alfred Morris, LT Trent Williams, OLB Brian Orakpo
Supporting Cast = TE Fred Davis, C Will Montgomery, MLB London Fletcher, OLB Ryan Kerrigan, CB DeAngelo Hall, K Kai Forbath
Notable Rookies = CB David Amerson (N.C. State, 2-51), TE Jordan Reed (Florida, 3-85)

Offensive Outlook = We could talk about how awesome Alfred Morris is, or how good Pierre Garcon and Fred Davis could be if they could stay on the field, but everything for the Redskins boils down to Robert Griffin III. Off-hand, here’s the questions surrounding RGIII as we enter the season.

Is he healthy?

Will he have his mobility?

Can he dial back his scrambling to avoid serious hits?

            If the answer to those three questions is yes, you can pencil in the Redskins for a second straight division title.
Defensive Outlook = Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett ran the same defense I normally run in Madden, which meant he blitzed six or seven guys 50% of the time. The return of Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker hopefully means they can dial back the blitz, as it often left their mediocre secondary in one-on-one coverage. Orakpo in particular is capable of single-handedly dominating games. The linebacker core is solid, led by 96-year-old London Fletcher.

Ceiling = 12-4 – Robert Griffin III will be hoisting an MVP trophy if Washington wins 12 games.
Floor = 3-13 – Kirk Cousins looked good when pressed into action, but he’s not that good.
Prediction = 7-9
            I’m a logic driven person, and logically, I can’t see RGIII holding up. It won’t be shocking if they come out of the gate 3-1, but they are one big hit on their franchise quarterback away from becoming a team that can’t overcome it’s defensive deficiencies. Kirk Cousins getting a four game cameo might not be the worst thing long term, as he could be a tool to reacquire some draft picks (remember, there 2014 first rounder is going to St. Louis).
 

2. New York Giants

 
 
2012 Record = 9-7, second in NFC East
2013 Schedule = @ Cowboys, Broncos, @ Panthers, @ Chiefs, Eagles, @ Bears, Vikings, @ Eagles, BYE, Raiders, Packers, Cowboys, @ Redskins, @ Chargers, Seahawks, @ Lions, Redskins

Franchise Players = QB Eli Manning, WR Victor Cruz, DE Jason Pierre-Paul
Supporting Cast = RB David Wilson, WR Hakeem Nicks, TE Brandon Myers, LT Will Beatty, RG David Snee, DE Justin Tuck, DT Cullen Jenkins, FS Antrel Rolle
Notable Rookies = RT Justin Pugh (Syracuse, 1-19), DT Johnathan Hankins (Ohio St., 2-49)

Offensive Outlook = For proof of how mind-numbingly inconsistent the Giants were on offense last year, here’s the amount of points they scored in each game last season.

17
41
36
17
41
26
27
29
20
13
38
16
52
0
14
42

            For those not interested in counting, there were six games they scored more than 35 points, and six games they scored under 20. I guess that’s the price you pay for employing Eli Manning as your starting quarterback. Manning can be as clutch as any quarterback in the NFL, but also is capable of delivering a slew of stinkers (see his week 8 through 10 stats last year for proof of this). Ahmad Bradshaw is gone, but that opens the door for electrifying second year pro David Wilson. Wilson spent some time in Tom Coughlin’s doghouse last year, but has the big play ability that the Giants have been lacking in the running game since Tiki Barber was in town. Victor Cruz was effective last year, but he needs a healthy Hakeem Nicks to free up opposing defenses’ focus on him. Nicks is playing for a new contract next year, and if his health doesn’t fail him, he’ll be motivated. Reuben Randle was raw as a rookie, but has the physical ability to make an impact in his second season. Brandon Myers productivity in Oakland was noticed by roughly 600 people, but Giants fans should be sure that they have an upgrade over Martellus Bennett.
Defensive Outlook = The hallmark of the New York’s two Super Bowl victories over New England was it’s devastating pass rush. Unfortunately, their rush was absent in 2012. The Giants sack total dropped to 33 (down from 48 in 2011), and most of that can be attributed to an out-of-shape Jason Pierre-Paul. An entire defense whose success was predicated on pressuring the quarterback collapsed. It’s reasonable to expect J.P.P. to rebound (he admitted he wasn’t physically prepared for last season), but expecting Justin Tuck to return to his past level of performance is asking too much. Cullen Jenkins was their big free agent acquisition, and he’s the best defensive tackle they’ve had since Tom Coughlin has been the head coach. It’s incredible that Corey Webster still has a job in the NFL after his abysmal 2012 campaign, but New York is banking on a rebound by their embattled starting cornerback. Aaron Ross does return after a year in Jacksonville, and will provide solid play in the nickel package.   

Ceiling = 14-2 – Eli Manning is due for a consistent 16-game campaign.
Floor = 6-10 – He’s also due for a 28-interception disaster.
Prediction = 9-7
            Is there any other win total you can forecast for the Giants other than nine games? Their first six games will go along way in determining what their season looks like, as they have to navigate four interesting road games. My money is on them starting 3-3, setting them up for a wildcard berth.
 

1. Dallas Cowboys

 

2012 Record = 8-8, third in NFC East
2013 Schedule = Giants, @ Chiefs, Rams, @ Chargers, Broncos, Redskins, @ Eagles, @ Lions, Vikings, @ Saints, BYE, @ Giants, Raiders, @ Bears, Packers, @ Redskins, Eagles

Franchise Players = QB Tony Romo, WR Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten, DE DeMarcus Ware, DE Anthony Spencer
Supporting Cast = RB DeMarco Murray, WR Miles Austin, LT Tyron Smith, DT Jay Ratliff, MLB Sean Lee, OLB Bruce Carter, CB Brandon Carr
Notable Rookies = C Travis Frederick (Wisconsin, 1-31), RB Joseph Randle (Oklahoma St., 5-151)

Offensive Outlook = Everyone knows the book on Tony Romo. We’ve written about it in this space before. The team we just discussed has proven that you can win with a quarterback who isn’t consistent. All of the skill players are there for the Cowboys to succeed. DeMarco Murray has shown flashes of brilliance, but he’s injury prone and can’t stay on the field. Rookie Joseph Randle could be able to fill in if needed at an adequate level. Dez Bryant finally broke out last season, and is firmly entrenched as a top-5 receiver in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. If Miles Austin could replace his balky hamstrings, he’d be right there with Bryant as an elite receiver. Jason Witten caught a career high 110 passes this year, and barring an improbable reoccurrence, will not start the season playing with a ruptured spleen. Tyron Smith made a relatively smooth transition to left tackle, but the rest of the line was a disaster. First round pick Travis Frederick should provide some stability to the interior of the line, and Dallas is betting an awful lot on Doug Free returning to his 2009 form.
Defensive Outlook = I’m not sure if there’s a greater change you could make between defensive coordinators than going from Rob Ryan to 176-year-old Monte Kiffin. Unlike Philadelphia, the Cowboys have the personal to make the move from the 3-4 to the 4-3. DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer will make the move to defensive end, but switching to full-time pass rushing roles isn’t a bad thing for this duo. Jay Ratliff also has a chance to rebound, as a 4-3 scheme gives defensive tackles a better chance to penetrate the offensive line. Jason Hatcher has performed well when called upon, and should thrive now that he has a full-time starting role. Sean Lee and Bruce Carter showed flashes of brilliance last year before having their seasons ended by injury. Brandon Carr brought some stability to the secondary, but Morris Claiborne had a mostly forgettable rookie year. A leap by him in his sophomore campaign would lift the Cowboys to a top-10 level defense.

Ceiling = 13-3 – If Dallas keeps all of its key players healthy, the talent is there for a 13 win campaign.
Floor = 6-10 – Most of Dallas players are injury prone, so this accounts for all of them getting hurt.
Prediction = 11-5
            Call me a homer, but when I look at the Cowboys schedule, I don’t see any un-winnable games. Their two toughest non-division opponents (Denver and Green Bay) they face at home. They could very easily go 4-4 or 5-3 on the road, which means if they take care of business at home, the Cowboys will win the NFC East.

Click here to read about the AFC East
Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC South

Sunday, August 4, 2013

2013 AFC East Preview

            Our third annual NFL division preview series begins with the division nearest and dearest to the hearts of the majority of my readers (all five of them).


4. New York Jets

 


2012 Record = 6-10, third in AFC East
2013 Schedule = Buccaneers, @ Patriots, Bills, @ Titans, @ Falcons, Steelers, Patriots, @ Bengals, Saints, BYE, @ Bills, @ Ravens, Dolphins, Raiders, @ Panthers, Browns, @ Dolphins

Franchise Players = LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson, C Nick Mangold, CB Antonio Cromartie
Supporting Cast = RB Chris Ivory, WR Santonio Holmes, DE Muhammad Wilkerson, MLB David Harris
Notable Rookies = CB Dee Milliner (Alabama, 1-9), DT Sheldon Richardson (Missouri, 1-13), QB Geno Smith (West Virginia, 2-39)

Offensive Outlook = Much like Kevin James, the Mark Sanchez-Rex Ryan duo has been around way too long. Fortunately for Jets fans, Geno Smith appears to have the inside track on the quarterback gig. I don’t expect either quarterback to set the world on fire, but at least Smith would offer a glimmer of hope for the future. Neither quarterback will have the benefit of an average receiving core, with only Stephen Hill offering the upside of a #1 receiver. Santonio Holmes is coming off major foot surgery, so to expect a return to peak performance from him is asking a lot. Chris Ivory has finally been released from the “five-back-pileup” system in New Orleans, and will get the chance to shoulder a full-time workload. The offensive line is still solid, so barring injury (which was a common occurrence during Ivory’s time with the Saints), we could be looking at 1,200 yards and eight to ten touchdowns.
Defensive Outlook = Typically, it’s not a good thing for a defense when they trade away the most dominant cornerback in the NFL, but the Jets did make the best long term decision when they shipped Darrelle Revis to Tampa Bay. It would make no sense to pay Revis big-time money on a rebuilding team, and their first two draft picks are fantastic building blocks. There’s enough defensive talent for New York to steal some ugly 14-10 type games.
        
Ceiling =  9-7 - This would take an epic debut season by Ivory, and a defensive effort reminiscent of the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. We’ll give this a 1% chance of happening.
Floor = 2-14 - You know who the quarterbacks are right? We'll give this a 30% chance of happening. 
Prediction = 5-11
            I like the moves they made to begin rejuvenating the defense, but it will be another year before they can blow up the offense.

3. Buffalo Bills

 

2012 Record = 6-10, fourth in AFC East
2013 Schedule = Patriots, Panthers, @ Jets, Ravens, @ Browns, Bengals, @ Dolphins, @ Saints, Chiefs, @ Steelers, Jets, BYE, Falcons, @ Buccaneers, @ Jaguars, Dolphins, @ Patriots

Franchise Players = RB C.J. Spiller, DE Mario Williams, DT Kyle Williams, DT Marcell Dareus, FS Jairus Byrd
Supporting Cast = WR Stevie Johnson, C Eric Wood, CB/KR Leodis McKelvin
Notable Rookies = QB E.J. Manuel (Florida State, 1-16), WR Robert Woods (USC, 2-41), MLB Kiko Alonso (Oregon, 2-46)

Offensive Outlook = After years of not fully understanding the talent they possessed, C.J. Spiller will finally get the keys to a full-time featured back role. He only needed 207 carries to crack the 1,200-yard barrier, so a workload closer to 300 should raise his production to an elite level. It’s concerning that standout guard Andy Levitre left for Tennessee, but Spiller has enough ability to overcome it. Stevie Johnson is a solid but unspectacular wide receiver whose production will be directly tied to his quarterback. Kevin Kolb isn’t the second coming of Jim Kelly (or for that matter, Doug Flutie), but the offense will function better with him under center than rookie E.J. Manuel. Ideally, Buffalo’s surprise first round pick spends a year watching from the sidelines, but if Kolb keeps tripping on rubber mats, Manuel will be forced to the field from the get go.
Defensive Outlook = For a unit that features four blue-chip players, this defense was dreadful last season. However, they only surrendered more than 24 points once during the final seven weeks of the season. A large part of that late season improvement can be attributed to Mario Williams, who played much better as a wrist injury healed during the season. Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus form the most talented DT-duo in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. The middle layer of the defense was a major weakness, as Buffalo’s linebackers were unable to take advantage of the defensive line’s efforts. If Kiko Alonso can keep his head on straight, he presents the Bills best chance to raise its defense to a top-12 level.

Ceiling = 11-5 – Double digit wins sounds like a stretch (mostly because it is), but when you look at the slate of road games, none of them jumps out as un-winnable (even their Week 17 game at New England. The Patriots could be resting for the playoffs at that point).
Floor = 2-14 – We’ll call this “the too much E.J. Manuel” scenario.
Prediction = 6-10
            Until Buffalo generates stable production from the quarterback position, I’m not endorsing them for a .500 season.


2. Miami Dolphins

 


2012 Record = 7-9, second in AFC East
2013 Schedule = @ Browns, @ Colts, Falcons, @ Saints, Ravens, Bills, @ Patriots, Bengals, BYE, @ Buccaneers, Chargers, Panthers, @ Jets, @ Steelers, Patriots, @ Bills, Jets

Franchise Players = WR Mike Wallace, C Mike Pouncey, DE Cameron Wake, DT Randy Starks
Supporting Cast = QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Lamar Miller, WR Brian Hartline, LG Richie Incognito, RT Tyson Clabo, DT Paul Soliai, MLB Dannell Ellerbe, CB Brent Grimes, SS Reshad Jones, KR Marcus Thigpen
Notable Rookies = OLB Dion Jordan (Oregon, 1-3), CB Jamar Taylor (Boise State, 2-54, RB Mike Gillislee (Florida, 5-164)

Offensive Outlook = It’s early in our preview series, but we will be hard pressed to find a team who’s fate is more tied to the production of one player than the Miami Dolphins. All of the pieces are here for Miami to leapfrog New England in the AFC East, but they need development from Ryan Tannehill in order to do it. He has an elite deep threat in the form of Mike Williams (who despite the fact that he’s grossly overpaid, he will still have to be accounted for by opposing defenses on every snap), a solid possession receiver with Brian Hartline, and a decent upgrade at tight end with Dustin Keller. Lamar Miller appears poised to seize the starting role, and could be in line for a breakout season. The loss of Jake Long is worrisome (it’s generally not a good thing to lose a franchise left tackle), but Miami patched the line effectively enough with the addition of former Falcon Tyson Clabo. If Tannehill produces at even just a Joe Flacco like level (regular season Flacco, not postseason), the Dolphins will make the playoffs.
Defensive Outlook = In today’s NFL, rushing the passer is key, and few clubs do it better than the Miami Dolphins. Cameron Wake generated a career high 15 sacks, and the addition of rookie Dion Jordan gives Miami the chance to have two elite edge rushers. Dannell Ellerbe is huge upgrade at middle linebacker, and he’ll provide a lift to a defense that didn’t always take advantage of the efforts of their defensive tackles. Brent Grimes isn’t the second coming of Rod Woodson (pre-safety years for you kids that don’t remember him on the Steelers), but assuming he’s healthy after early ACL surgery last year, he’s an upgrade. 

Ceiling = 13-3 – If this happens, Ryan Tannehill will be the most valuable waiver wire pickup in fantasy football.
Floor = 5-11 – If this happens, Miami will be looking for a new quarterback in 2014.
Prediction = 9-7
            The schedule breaks really well for the Dolphins (catching a down AFC North is the only reason I have Miami above .500), and assuming Tannehill isn’t abysmal, there’s enough talent on defense to carry Miami to wildcard contention.
 

1. New England Patriots


2012 Record = 12-4, first in AFC East, lost AFC Championship Game to Ravens
2013 Schedule = @ Bills, Jets, Buccaneers, @ Falcons, @ Bengals, Saints, @ Jets, Dolphins, Steelers, BYE, @ Panthers, Broncos, @ Texans, Browns, @ Dolphins, @ Ravens, Bills

Franchise Players = QB Tom Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski, LT Nate Solder, LG Logan Mankins, DT Vince Wilfork, MLB Jerod Mayo
Supporting Cast = RB Stevan Ridley, WR Danny Amendola, S Ryan Wendell, RT Sebastian Vollmer, DT Tommy Kelly, MLB Brandon Spikes, OLB Dont’a Hightower, CB Aqib Talib, FS Devin McCourty
Notable Rookies = OLB Jamie Collins (Southern Mississippi, 2-52), WR Aaron Dobson (Marshall, 2-59)

Offensive Outlook = When your offense is built around one tight end who is a likely PUP list member and another who’s in jail because he’s involved with multiple murders, that’s a problem. Fortunately for New England, the cupboard isn’t bare. They still have Tom Brady (and quite frankly, that’s all you need), and the best offensive line the Patriots have ever had in the Belichick era protects him. If Stevan Ridley can correct a recurring case of fumbleitis, he’ll have an outside shot at 1,600 yards. Shane Vereen is also a talented back who is an asset in the passing game. Receivers are where the question marks begin. Rob Gronkowski is the most dominant red zone target in the game, but how many games he suits up for is what will determine his impact. Ultimately, the Patriots should only need a healthy Gronkowski for the playoffs. Danny Amendola has all of the physical tools to fill Wes Welker’s role, but his total number of games missed isn’t inspiring either. Aaron Dobson is the biggest lottery ticket on the Patriots roster. If he can grasp the playbook, he’ll be the most dominant wide receiver in the AFC East.  
Defensive Outlook = It might not be as stout as the 2003 edition, but this year’s defense is the best one Belichick has had since there second Super Bowl winning year. They might have the deepest linebacking core in the AFC, and the edition of Tommy Kelly to play alongside Vince Wilfork will only their run defense. Aqib Talib stabilized the secondary immediately upon arriving in New England via a midseason trade, and one could safely bet on him being even better after a full Patriots training camp. New England is a dominant pass rusher away (I’m looking at you Chandler Jones) from fielding a top-5 defense.

Ceiling = 14-2 – This scenario will need a healthy Gronkowski, a rookie of the year campaign from Dobson, and a 12-sack season from Jones.
Floor = 8-8 – Only will occur if the offense can’t find its way and the Dolphins and Bills play to their potential.
Prediction = 11-5
            There’s been a ton of gloom and doom surrounding the Patriots (understandably so. Not even the mid-90s Dallas Cowboys ever dealt with a distraction like the Pats are faced with this off-season), but it’s important to take a step back and look at the larger landscape. As you probably could tell by looking at the other three teams in this preview, there’s a fair chance the Patriots will be the only good team in the division. As you will see in the next three AFC division previews, there’s a high probability that most of the conference stinks too. There’s only one team in the AFC I’d rate ahead of the Patriots. They might not be pretty at times (especially early in the season), but I expect New England to end up with a first round bye when it’s all said and done.


Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC South